Author: emandowa

Modeling the Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 Among Five High Burden African Countries

Introduction

The disease, now caused by a novel coronavirus called severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2, was first identified in the outbreak of the respiratory disease in Wuhan, China.1 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) raises ongoing and serious public health concerns around the world. As of 07th February 2022, the ongoing global pandemic outbreak of COVID-19 has spread to at least 225 countries and territories causing 410,837,662 cases and 5,829,542 deaths (case fatality rate (CFR) = 1.42%) globally.2 The United States of America (USA) reported the highest number of cases (79,293,924) (3, 4) and 942,944 deaths3–7 with a CFR of 1.18%, followed by India (42,631,421) cases and 508,665 deaths with a CFR of 1.19%.3,4,7–10 The first case of coronavirus in Africa was reported in Egypt on February 14, 2020.11,12 By the end of October 2021, 47 African countries were affected, with over 150,000 deaths and over 6.07 million confirmed cases.13 Africa is considered one of the most vulnerable continents due to its strong trade relations with China and poor health care system.4,14,15 As of 07th February 2022, the ongoing global pandemic outbreak of COVID-19 has spread to at least 58 African countries,14,16 including South Africa, Morocco, Tunisia, Ethiopia, and, Libya, and resulted in approximately 6,632,037 cases of COVID-19 and 151,537 deaths only on these five Africa countries.2 In South Africa, Morocco, Tunisia, Ethiopia and, Libya, COVID-19 infections 3,623,962, 1,147,243, 944,175, 466,539, and 450,118 and deaths reached 95,835, 15,593, 26,679, 7363, and 6067, with case fatality rate (CFR) of nearly 0.15%, 0.042%, 0.22%, 0.006%, and 0.086%, respectively.2 This disease has left a permanently dark mark on the history of the human race.12 The coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic will be infamously recorded in history forever.12

In the case of the Southern African countries, the basic reproduction number (R0) for South Africa was estimated to be 7.02.17 This was followed by Zambia with R0 = 2.59 and Namibia with R0 = 2.37.17 The reproduction number for Malawi was 2.16.17 Among the Central African countries considered, Cameroon had an R0 of 3.74, Chad (2.03),17 Gabon (2.37),17 and the Republic of the Congo (2.54).17 Of these countries, Cameroon was the first to be infected with COVID-19, followed by the Republic of the Congo, Gabon, and Chad. Among the African island nations,18 Madagascar (4.97) and Mauritius (9.66) showed the highest breeding numbers.17 In North Africa, Morocco (3.92) is estimated to have the highest basic reproduction number, followed by Tunisia (3.87), Algeria (3.31), and Egypt (2.72).13,17 Similar results were obtained in East African countries. Sudan has the lowest reproduction number (1.98), followed by Ethiopia (2.55), Kenya (3.77), and Rwanda (4.04).17 In addition to this, a new type of COVID-19 emerged in the world.19–21 The virus is constantly changing, which can lead to the emergence of new variants or strains of the virus.19,22 Variants usually do not affect the behavior of the virus. But sometimes they make it work differently.23–25 Omicron variants spread more easily than the original virus that causes COVID-19 and delta variants.17,19,20 The Omicron COVID19 variant was first reported in South Africa on November 24, 2021 (26). It is quickly spreading across the world.20,21,26 The severity associated with Omicron is still unknown, but early reports suggest a mild illness, at least in the younger population.19–21 Individuals infected with the Omicron variant may show symptoms similar to those of previous variants. The presence and severity of symptoms can be affected by COVID19 vaccination status, the presence of other conditions, age, and previous history of infection.20,22,27

The biggest burden of COVID19 depends on the medical system and on the prompt and timely response to the pandemic.27–33 But the problem is that almost all African countries respond slightly too slowly, and some of them cannot use their vaccines effectively.34–36 A series of critical factors can lead to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, some of these factors do not seem to be well understood.17,37 Infectious disease modeling is a powerful tool for infectious disease control that helps to accurately predict characteristics and understand infectious disease dynamics.38–40 In infectious disease models, the incidence rate plays a vital role in the transmission of infectious diseases.38–40 From an epidemiological point of view, the number of people infected per unit time is called the incidence.38–40 Here we consider the incidence of non-linearity, as the number of effective contacts between infectious and susceptible individuals can be saturated by the accumulation of high levels of infectious individuals.38–40 This model is also used to calibrate and predict the number of COVID-19 case data in five high-burden African countries, including South Africa, Morocco, Tunisia, Ethiopia, and Libya, to estimate the model parameters. We assessed the impact of year structure on the dynamics of COVID-19 cases in all five high-burden African countries. The study performed an intervention analysis to identify the essential intervention that could support policymakers in controlling the COVID-19 outbreak in the five high-burden African countries. The model findings can be also helpful to many other countries which are dealing with the critical outbreak of COVID-19 and predict what will happen in the future. The COVID19 pandemic continues to spread in uncertain ways around the world, despite vaccines being available. Due to the uncertainty of the pandemic, it is necessary to properly understand the development of the disease in the community. More research is needed to adequately understand the transmission dynamics of the virus and its variants in Africa. In this study, researchers used a SIMCR model to estimate the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 among five high-burden African countries based on the number of susceptible, infected, mild severe, and series critical severe. The prediction results and the incidence rate estimation could be used by public health officers to plan, and map out strategies to prevent COVID-19 adequately in Africa.

Methods

Study Setting

The study was conducted among five COVID-19 high burdened African countries. These are South Africa, Morocco, Tunisia, Ethiopia, and Libya.

Our study is deterministic modeling where the population is partitioned into five components based on the epidemiological state of the individuals. The model structure that we selected is based on the nature of COVID-19 and general model assumptions to make it simple. In this model, the population is partitioned into five compartments or classes namely: Susceptible S(t), infected I(t), mildly infected population M(t), critical infected population C(t), and recovered R(t) compartments (Figure 1).41 According to this model, a susceptible individual in contact with an infected person is prone to get infected.41–44

Figure 1 Flow chart of the SLMCR mathematical model showing the five states and the transitions in and out of each state.

The flow chart of the SLMCR mathematical model shows the five states and the transitions in and out of each state. S: susceptible population; I: Infected population; M: mildly infected population (moderate symptom); C: critical infected population (critical case); R: recovered population; Λ: recovered rate, λ: infected rate; μ: death rate; β: Recovery rate from M to R; ω: progression rate from latent to a mild compartment; ω2: progression rate from the latent critical compartment; α: the force of saturation infection; γ: recovery rate from mild compartment to recover compartment; β: recovery rate from critical compartment to recovery compartment; ϕ: the rate of progression from mild to critical compartment due to comorbidities with other diseases (Table 1).41

Table 1 The Assumed and Fitted Values of Model Parameters for Five High-Burden African Countries

Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE)

ODEs describe the rate of change in the number of the susceptible, latent, acute, carrier, and recovered compartments at time t.41

These equations are written as follows:

The SICMR model is a compartmental model describing how a COVID-19 disease spreads among the population. The subjects of the SICMR model are susceptible, infected, mild, critical series serious critical, and recovered cases.41

In the model, natural birth rate and natural death rates are considered equal. We use the following symbols to mark the number of individuals in each compartment:41

  1. S(t): susceptible, representing the number of individuals who do not have COVID-19 diseases at time t but are likely to have COVID-19 disease in the future
  2. I(t): infected, representing the number of individuals who get COVID-19 disease at time t
  3. R(t): recovered, representing the cumulative or total number of the recovered groups at time t
  4. C(t): serious critical infected population, representing the cumulative or total number of patient who has critical symptoms at the time of t
  5. M(t): mild severe, representing the cumulative or total number of patient who has mild symptoms at the time of t

Results and Discussion

The output below shows the number of people in each compartment. It was modeled for 30 years. As it is shown, the total populations for every five compartments are estimated for each year (Table 2).

Table 2 The Number of Populations in Each Compartment of the COVID-19 Model Structure Modeled for 30 Years, South Africa, February 2022

This section estimated the model parameters based on the available five African countries’ COVID-19 reported case data from http://worldometers.info.2 The figures (Figures 2–6) present the pattern of infected individuals, susceptible, mild severe, critical mild severe, and recovered individuals for the next 30 years if the number of infected individuals follows this trend in South Africa, Morocco, Tunisia, Ethiopia, and Libya.

Figure 2 The number of populations in each compartment of the COVID-19 model structure modeled for 30 years, South Africa, February 2022.

Figure 3 The number of populations in each compartment of the COVID-19 model structure modeled for 30 years, Morocco, February 2022.

Figure 4 The number of populations in each compartment of the COVID-19 model structure modeled for 30 years, Tunisia, February 2022.

Figure 5 The number of populations in each compartment of the COVID-19 model structure modeled for 30 years, Ethiopia, February 2022.

Figure 6 The number of populations in each compartment of the COVID-19 model structure modeled for 30 years, Libya, February 2022.

To parameterize the model, we obtained some of the parameter values from the literature (Table 2). Others were fitted or estimated from the data. The model was fitted using R version 4.0.5 using starting points from the data (South Africa, Morocco, Tunisia, Ethiopia, and, Libya, COVID-19 infections 3,623,962, 1,146,041, 940,223, 466,455, and 445,876 and deaths reached 95,817, 15,593, 26,679, 7363, and 6067 respectively).2

The prediction results from the model are also shown in the figure below to show direction and to understand the importance of intervention in the evidence-based decision-making process. The predicted result shows that if the number of infected individuals, number of recovered, and critical series severe follow this trend for the next year, there will be around 6,932,672 in South Africa, 1,568,144 in Morocco, 1,770,862 in Tunisia, 929,366 in Ethiopia, and 853,195 in Libya patients infected. In addition to this, if this trend continues in the next 10 years, there will be around 29,221,559 in South Africa, 5,144,339 in Morocco, 5,925,190 in Tunisia, 5,002,988 in Ethiopia, and 3,545,001 in Libya recovered from COVID-19 by April 30th, 2032, as shown in tables and figures below. This is consistent with the report of WHO, which stated that the number of newly confirmed cases was higher among African countries.42 The pattern of increasing cases is driven by South Africa and Ethiopia, which continue to report the highest numbers of new cases.42

If this trend continues for the next 3 decades, the number of susceptible individuals will decrease, but the number of infected, mild severe patients and recovered individuals will increase. The number of susceptible individuals decreased by 50,732,068 in South Africa, 11,782,920 in Morocco, 10,876,563 in Tunisia, 13,482,005 in Ethiopia, and 6,007,478 in Libya in the next 3 decades.

The following are the ggplots of the above table (Table 2). As those graphs clearly show, the number of susceptible individuals decreased among five high-burden African countries. But the number of infected, mild severe, critical severe, and recovered populations will increase at the end of the studying years. The population in the three compartments will increase over the next 30 years. The population in the critical severe compartment will remain almost constant throughout the study period (Figures 2–6).

Intervention Implementation

Providing COVID-19 vaccine to the population of five high-burden African countries is 70–95% effective to prevent COVID-19 transmission from individual to individual.

Now we can think of the COVID-19 vaccine as an intervention to reduce coronavirus transmission from person to person. Currently, the distribution of vaccines is being offered in all African countries. We want to plan the intervention, by assuming that it is possible to offer the COVID-19 vaccine to half of the population in five high-burden African countries. The model formulation considering the intervention is done as follows.

Let the intervention to be offered is labeled as: “CD_ COVID-19”

Coverage of COVID-19 vaccine (C_ CD_ COVID-19) =0.5(50%),

Efficacy of COVID-19 vaccine (E_ CD_ COVID-19) = 0.76(76%)

Lambda intervention for South Africa=lambda*(1- (C_ CD_ COVID-19 * E_ CD_ COVID-19))

 The value of the force of infection (lambda) after intervention will be:

  Lambda intervention=lambda*(1- (C_ CD_ COVID-19 * E_ CD_ COVID-19))

  Lambda intervention=0.64*(1-(0.5*0.76))

  Lambda intervention=0.64*(1–0.38)

    =0.64*0.62

    =0.3968

Therefore, the intervention will reduce the force of infection by 62%.

Lambda intervention for Morocco =lambda*(1- (C_ CD_ COVID-19 * E_ CD_ COVID-19))

 The value of the force of infection (lambda) after intervention will be:

  Lambda intervention=lambda*(1- (C_ CD_ COVID-19 * E_ CD_ COVID-19))

  Lambda intervention=0.03*(1-(0.5*0.76))

  Lambda intervention=0.05*(1–0.38)

    =0.03*0.62

    =0.0186

Therefore, the intervention will reduce the force of infection by 62%.

Lambda intervention for Tunisia =lambda*(1- (C_ CD_ COVID-19 * E_ CD_ COVID-19))

 The value of the force of infection (lambda) after intervention will be:

  Lambda intervention=lambda*(1- (C_ CD_ COVID-19 * E_ CD_ COVID-19))

  Lambda intervention=0.85*(1-(0.5*0.76))

  Lambda intervention=0.85*(1–0.38)

    =0.85*0.62

    =0.527

Therefore, the intervention will reduce the force of infection by 62%.

Lambda intervention for Ethiopia =lambda*(1- (C_ CD_ COVID-19 * E_ CD_ COVID-19))

 The value of the force of infection (lambda) after intervention will be:

  Lambda intervention=lambda*(1- (C_ CD_ COVID-19 * E_ CD_ COVID-19))

  Lambda intervention=0.004*(1-(0.5*0.76))

  Lambda intervention=0.05*(1–0.38)

    =0.004*0.62

    =0.00248

Therefore, the intervention will reduce the force of infection by 62%.

Lambda intervention for Libya =lambda*(1- (C_ CD_ COVID-19 * E_ CD_ COVID-19))

 The value of the force of infection (lambda) after intervention will be:

  Lambda intervention=lambda*(1- (C_ CD_ COVID-19 * E_ CD_ COVID-19))

  Lambda intervention=0.068*(1-(0.5*0.76))

  Lambda intervention=0.068*(1–0.38)

    =0.068*0.62

    =0.04216

Therefore, the intervention will reduce the force of infection by 62%.

The prediction results after intervention are shown in Table 3. If 50% of the population is vaccinated and if the number of infected individuals, recovers, and critical severe follow the same trend for the next 10 years, it is possible to reduce the number of infected individuals in Africa. There will be around 9,847,641 in South Africa, 15,183,777 in Morocco, 3,773,632 in Tunisia, 2,255,118 in Ethiopia, and 1,893,279 in Libya infected. In addition to this, if this trend continues in the next 10 years, there will be around 9,158,288 in South Africa, 14,268,506 in Morocco, 3,525,578 in Tunisia, 2,117,100 in Ethiopia, and 1,399,768 in Libya recovered from COVID-19 by April 30th, 2032 as shown in figures and tables below. A similar study reported that COV2.S given two months after the initial immunization increased vaccine effectiveness in the short term to 100% against severe disease.45 The previous study has also found that vaccination is an important protective factor against COVID-19.46–55

Table 3 The Number of Populations After Intervention in Each Compartment of the COVID-19 Model Structure Modeled for 30 Years, February 2022

If this trend continues for the next 3 decades the number of susceptible individuals will increase but the number of infected, mild severe patients, and recovered individuals will decrease. The number of the susceptible individual increased by 30,711,930 in South Africa, 5,919,837 in Morocco, 3,485,020 in Tunisia, 7,833,642 in Ethiopia, and 2,145,404 in Libya in the next 3 decades with compare to the unvaccinated population and the number of infected individuals decreases by 30,479,271 in South Africa, 19,809,751 in Morocco, 3,456,406 in Tunisia, 7,761,993 in Ethiopia and 2,125,038 in Libya.

The following are the ggplots of the above table result after intervention (Table 3). As those graphs (Figures 7–11) clearly show, the number of susceptible individuals decreased among five high-burden African countries. But compared to the previous result (before intervention) the number of susceptible increased and the intervention reduced the number of infected individuals throughout the study period. From the figure, the number of Infected, Mild severe, critical severe, and recovered populations will increase at the end of the studying years. But compared to the previous results (before intervention) there is a dramatic decrease in the number of infected individuals.

Figure 7 The number of populations in each compartment of the COVID-19 modeled for 30 years after the intervention, South Africa, February 2022.

Figure 8 The number of populations in each compartment of the COVID-19 modeled for 30 years after the intervention, Morocco, February 2022.

Figure 9 The number of populations in each compartment of the COVID-19 modeled for 30 years after the intervention, Tunisia, February 2022.

Figure 10 The number of populations in each compartment of the COVID-19 modeled for 30 years after the intervention, Ethiopia, February 2022.

Figure 11 The number of populations in each compartment of the COVID-19 modeled for 30 years after the intervention, Libya, February 2022.

The incidence rates of symptoms and diseases in the general population are important indicators of a population’s health status. The incidence of the COVID-19 pandemic is shown below for the next 30 years among five high-burden African countries. The incidence in the first year will be 55 cases per 1000 in South Africa, 984 cases per 10,000 population in Morocco, 1216 cases per 1000 population, 769 cases per 100,000 population in Ethiopia, and 1097 cases per 10,000 population during one year at risk before intervention. The incidence rate of the COVID-19 pandemic will then decrease till the end of the next 30 years in all countries. But if 50% of the population is vaccinated, the incidence rate in those countries decreases dramatically compared to the unvaccinated population. The Incidence rate after the intervention is 3652 cases per 100,000 in South Africa, 2076 cases per 1,000,000 population in Morocco, 4915 cases per 100,000 population, 3 cases per 1000 population in Ethiopia, and 4385 cases per 100,000 population during one year at risk (Table 4).

Table 4 Incidence Rate per 1000 Population Before Intervention and After the Intervention, February 2022

Conclusion

SIRD and SIRS models are classical and effective stochastic models of infectious diseases. In this research, the SIMCR model is used to describe the transmission of COVID-19 among five high-burden African countries. South Africa, Morocco, Tunisia, Ethiopia, and Libya are the top 5 COVID-19 high-burden African countries. Through the analysis of the recent data, the number of infected individuals has increased today. If this trend is continuous for the next 30 years we will have around 86 million infected individuals and millions of deaths only in those five African countries. Also, the incidence rates of those countries are high before intervention compared to after intervention. To reduce those problems, vaccination is the best and most effective mechanism. So, vaccinating half of the population in those countries helps to control and reduce the transmission rate of COVID-19 in Africa for the next 30 years. This will lead to preventing 17,212,405 people from becoming infected and millions of deaths being reduced in those five high-burden African countries for the next 30 years. Finally, we hope that the governments will impose the strictest, most scientifically effective containment measures to quickly conquer COVID-19.

Many research works have been done for short terms forecasting periods like 25, 30, and 60 days. Where in this study, the authors took data for the last year and predicted the scenario for the next 30 years. Moreover, the SIRD model showed excellent accuracy in the prediction force of infection and the best intervention method which previous models could not achieve.

So, this model should be applied for forecasting future analysis and identifying the force of infection for any dataset. The limitation that was observed during prediction was that SIRD models upturn the number of susceptible, infected, recovered, and deaths. But SIRD model is the greatest and most effective model to identify the best intervention method and force of infection. In the future, investigators can explore some predictive models such as the ARIMA model and Bayesian networks in COVID-19. This model is also recommended to be applicable for future pandemics and to identify the most effective intervention method.

Ethics Approval

The study was based on aggregated COVID-19 surveillance data in South Africa, Morocco, Tunisia, Ethiopia, and, Libya taken from the worldometer. No confidential information was included because analyses were performed at the aggregate level. Therefore, no ethical approval is required.

Data Sharing Statement

The datasets generated and/or analyzed during the current study are available on the following website: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/.

Acknowledgments

We acknowledge worldometers for their valuable work.

Disclosure

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest.

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47. Kissling E, Hooiveld M, Martı´n VS, et al. Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in adults aged 65 years and older in primary care: i-MOVE-COVID-19 project, Europe, December 2020 to May 2021. Eurosurveillance. 2021;26:2100670. doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES

48. Bernal JL, Andrews N, Gower C, et al. Effectiveness of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines on covid-19 related symptoms, hospital admissions, and mortality in older adults in England: test negative case-control study. BMJ. 2021;373:373. PMID: 33985964.

49. Martı´nez-Baz I, Miqueleiz A, Casado I, et al. Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in preventing SARS CoV-2 infection and hospitalisation, Navarre, Spain, January to April 2021. Eurosurveillance. 2021;26:2100438. PMID: 34047271. doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.21.2100438

50. Pritchard E, Matthews PC, Stoesser N, et al. Impact of vaccination on new SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United Kingdom. Nat Med. 2021;27:1370–1378. PMID: 34108716. doi:10.1038/s41591-021-01410-w

51. Thompson MG, Burgess JL, Naleway AL, et al. Interim Estimates of vaccine effectiveness of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 COVID-19 Vaccines in Preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection among health care personnel, first responders, and other essential and frontline workers—Eight U.S. Locations. 2021;70:495–500. PMID: 33793460. doi:10.15585/mmwr.mm7013e3

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A Timeline Of Black American Flags Throughout History

A Timeline Of Black American Flags Throughout History
JASON CONNOLLY/AFP

At its best, flags can be powerful symbols. Flags can represent pride, hope, resilience, history, and the future. At the worst, they are symbols of hate and can incite fear and trigger trauma. Regardless of the use, like language and culture, flags are a vital aspect to any group of people’s identity. Given the history of Black people in United States—ascending from chattel slavery to free American citizens—the journey to establishing an identity for ourselves has been laborious. As the Black identity is constantly changing, the icons that represent us have too.

Here is the growing list of flags that have sewn the Black experience into the fabric of American history:

TOPICS: 

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For Biyi Bandele Thomas, other literary exiles into great beyond

For Biyi Bandele Thomas, other literary exiles into great beyond
Biyi Bandele

Adebayo Obajemu

The past one decade has been a mixed grill for lovers of literature and the arts on the African continent.

It has been a period that has witnessed a flowering of new talents, but also tragically a decade that has seen the passing on of giants of our culture and literature, icons that have made Africa proud .

Each of the departed literary greats in the last one decade has enriched through their writings our literary heritage, and contributed in their own way towards building African literary culture as we know it today.

Their passing though painful, but we are consoled by the fact that they have entered the pantheon of immortality.

And as Famished Road writer, Ben Okri writes: “The real literature of a people begins with the passing of writers into the realm of ancestors. Literature begins with the dead.”

Biyi Bandele Thomas belongs in the generation of writers following Ben Okri’s, the emergent writers of the 90’s who began to bloom and flowered enriching our literary repertoire.

Bandele cut his novelistic and dramatic teeth at the then University of Ife, where he had the privilege of being coached by avant-garde such as Biodun Jeyifo and others, and in 1989 he won the prestigious BBC writing competition.

He had forged an affinity and lifelong attraction to the theatre working with the Royal Court Theatre, the Royal Shakespeare Company, in addition to writing radio drama and screenplays for television. Among his rich repertoire are: Rain; Marching for Fausa (1993); Resurrections in the Season of the Longest Drought (1994); Two Horsemen (1994), which had the honour of a selection as Best New Play at the 1994 London New Plays Festival; Death Catches the Hunter and Me and the Boys (published in one volume, 1995); and Oroonoko, an adaptation of Aphra Behn’s 17th-century novel of the same name.

In 1997, Bandele undertook an an ambitious project which turned out a success, the highly acclaimed dramatization of Chinua Achebe’s classic, Things Fall Apart. Brixton Stories, Bandele’s stage adaptation of his own novel The Street (1999), premiered in 2001 and was published in one volume with his play Happy Birthday Mister Deka, which premiered in 1999. He also adapted Lorca’s Yerma in 2001.

He was a writer-in-residence with Talawa Theatre Company from 1994 to 1995, resident dramatist with the Royal National Theatre Studio (1996), the Judith E. Wilson Fellow at Churchill College, University of Cambridge, in 2000–01.

He also acted as Royal Literary Fund Resident Playwright at the Bush Theatre from 2002 to 2003.

Talking about influences in one of his interviews, he mentioned the impact of John Osborne’s Look Back in Anger on him.

Among his prose endeavors are: The Man Who Came in from the Back of Beyond (1991) and The Street (1999), which have been described as “rewarding reading, capable of wild surrealism and wit as well as political engagement.”.His 2007 novel, Burma Boy, reviewed in The Independent by Tony Gould, was called “a fine achievement” and lauded for providing a voice for previously unheard Africans.

His directorial debut film, Half of a Yellow Sun – based on the 2006 novel of the same name by Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie – was screened in the Special Presentation section at the 2013 Toronto International Film Festival, and received a “rapturous reception”. His passing is yet another sad blow to African writing.
But then, in the last one decade, the continent has tragically travelled the tortuous road of loss and despair.

Ferdinand Oyono started the round of losses in 2010 when he died . The popular author of House Boy was one of Cameroon’s greatest diplomats. He once served as the country’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister of Culture. His first novel, Une vie de boy was published in 1956 and translated as Houseboy by John Reed for the Heinemann African Writers Series in 1966.
2010.

Lewis Nkosi was a great South African author whose works were under censor and total ban under South Africa’s Suppression of Communism Act. He was the first black South African to receive Harvard’s Nieman Fellowship and spent 30 years in exile abroad. His novel Mating Birds (1983), which examines an interracial affair, is perhaps his most notable work. His Home and Exile is an influential work.His most popular play The Rythm of Violence is a powerful indictment of the evil of apartheid. He died in 2010.

In 2011, the African writing lost Kenyan writer,Margaret Ogola, whose first novel, The River and the Source, won The Commonwealth Writers’ Prize for Best First Book, Africa region, in 1995. Get this: she was also a pediatrician and the medical director of a hospice for HIV and AIDS orphans! Google honored her with a Google Doodle on her 60th birthday.

Does Chinua Achebe really need an introduction? No! The doyen of African literature departed this planet earth in 2013 to commune with the ancestors. He will be remembered for a number of earth-shaking works like Things Fall Apart, Arrows of God and others. Arguably the most famous African author.

In 2014 we lost Kofi Awoonor to the madness of terror when he was tragically killed in the Westgate shopping mall attack in Kenya.

He was a Ghanian poet, novelist, and scholar whose works include translations of Ewe dirge singers. He was imprisoned in 1975 on the suspicion of being involved in a coup, but released in 1976. He served as Ghana’s ambassador to Brazil and Cuba. He was one of Africa’s greatest poets and dramatists.

Mbulelo Mzamane was a South African author, poet, and academic who, like many anti-apartheid activists, spent a fair amount of time in exile. Among his awards are the African Literature Association’s Lifetime Award and the Mofolo-Plomer Prize for Literature. Nelson Mandela called him a “visionary leader and one of South Africa’s greatest intellectuals.” He died in 2014.

Nadine Gordimer was a white South African writer who won Nobel Literature Prize. Like most writers critical of apartheid, her works were also once banned by the South African government. In interviews, she admitted that she never intended to be a writer whose works are considered political, but she came to realize that South African society didn’t allow for apolitical writing.

Chris van Wyk , a South African novelist, poet, and children’s books author died in 2014. He’s most widely known for his poem “In Detention,” a poem which satirizes the bizarre reasons provided by the apartheid government for the deaths of political prisoners. His poetry collection It’s Time to Go Home (1979) won the Olive Schreiner Prize.

In 2015, André Brink, the South African author also died .He began writing in Afrikaans but turned to English when his works became censored by the South African government. He was part of Die Sestigers (“the Sixtyers”), a literary group that aimed to revolutionize Afrikaans literature. His novel A Dry White Season (1979) was adapted into a film starring Marlon Brando.

Also died in 2015 was Grace Ogot , a Kenyan author who was a nurse by profession and who later became a member of Kenya’s National Assembly. She was the first woman whose fiction was published by the East African Publishing House and her numerous short stories offer insight into traditional Luo life and its conflict with colonialism and modernity.

Chenjerai Hove was a Zimbabwean novelist, poet, and essayist whose works shone light on the lives of his fellow citizens under colonialism and Robert Mugabe’s rule. Surveilled and harassed under Mugabe’s rule, Hove left Zimbabwe for exile in Norway in 2001, where he remained until his death in 2015.

Elechi Amadi was a Nigerian playwright and novelist renowned for his historical trilogy about traditional life in the villages: The Concubine (1966), The Great Ponds (1969), and The Slave (1978). His only nonfiction work, Sunset in Biafra (1973), recounts his experiences as a soldier and civilian during the Biafran War.He joined his ancestors in 2016.

Isidore Okpewho was a Nigerian author and critic whose works won him the 1976 African Arts Prize for Literature and the 1993 Commonwealth Writers’ Prize for Best Book (Africa Region). His scholarly work on African oral literature garnered him, among others, a Guggenheim Fellowship. Tragically we lost him in 2016.

Peter Abrahams was a South African journalist and author whose writings addressed the intricacies of racial politics and the injustices of apartheid. In the introduction to his memoir, The Black Experience in the 20th Century: An Autobiography and Meditation (2001), Nadine Gordimer declared him “a writer of the world, who opened up in his natal country, South Africa, a path of exploration for us, the writers who have followed the trail he bravely blazed.” This pioneering writer who authored the famous Mine Boy died in
2017.

Buchi Emecheta really needs no introduction. She is one of Africa’s most popular female writers. She wrote The Slave Girl and the Joy of Motherhood among others. She died in 2019.

Miriam Tlali was the first black South African woman to publish a novel in English in South Africa itself in 1975. Originally titled Muriel at Metropolitan and reissued in 2004 under the title Between Two Worlds, the novel depicts daily life under apartheid, particularly how it hinders black women’s employment opportunities. For her writing, Tlali was persecuted by the apartheid government and brutally beaten at her home in Soweto several times, but she bravely refused exile. Her death was a big loss to African writing.

Abiola Irele was a Nigerian scholar perhaps best known for his work on the concept of Négritude. His books include The African Experience in Literature and Ideology (1990) and The African Imagination: Literature in Africa and the Black Diaspora (2011). Upon his death, Wole Soyinka wrote a poem titled “Olohun-Iyo” as a tribute to him. He was widely considered the doyen of African literary criticism, and his influence on African writing is often compared to that of Northrop Frye in European literature. Tragically we lost him in 2017.

Between 2010 and Bandele’s death in 2022, there are other eminent writers that left us for the great beyond.

Keorapetse Kgositsile was a South African poet and essayist whose writing explored the idea of Pan-African liberation. His verse distinctively combines South African and Black American structural and rhetorical traditions. He was named South Africa’s poet laureate in 2006. 2018.

Ahmed Khaled Tawfik was one of the few Egyptian authors to publish extensively in science fiction, fantasy, and horror. A doctor by profession, Tawfik once said that “[his] English was not good enough to read horror literature, so [he] started writing it [himself].” He has published over 100 books. He died in 2018.

David Rubadiri who died in 2018 was a widely-anthologized poet and diplomat who served as Malawi’s first ambassador to the US and the UN. He left government service in 1965 following disagreements with then-president Hastings Banda and subsequently taught at Makerere University, the University of Nairobi, and the University of Ibadan.

Seydou Badian Kouyaté was a Malian politician and writer who composed the lyrics for Mali’s national anthem. He won the 1965 Grand prix littéraire d’Afrique noire for his book, Les dirigeants africains face à leur peuple. He was exiled to Senegal following the 1968 coup. He left the world in 2018.

Charles Mungoshi was a Zimbabwean author who wrote novels and
short stories about colonial and post-colonial struggles in both Shona and English. His works have won him the Noma Award, the Commonwealth Writers’ Prize, and International PEN Awards. He also left in 2019.

Pius Adesanmi was a Nigerian scholar and columnist whose satirical writings for Premium Times and Sahara Reporters took for their target various aspects of Nigerian society and politics. His works include a poetry collection and several essay collections. He was, unfortunately, a victim of the Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 crash.

Bernard Dadié was an Ivorian poet, dramatist, and novelist whose works explored African oral traditions. He was the founder of the National Drama Studio in Côte d’Ivoire and served as the country’s Minister of Culture between 1977 to 1986. In case you didn’t notice from the dates above, he lived till the grand old age of 103! In 2019.

Gabriel Okara who died in 2017 was a Nigerian poet and novelist often dubbed the “first Modernist poet of Anglophone Africa.” He is perhaps best known for his novel The Voice (1964), which distinctively imposes Ijo syntax onto English. He was also the director of Rivers State Publishing House in Port Harcourt from 1972 to 1980.

Binyavanga Wainaina was Zimbabwean Caine Prize winner. A TIME 100 Most Influential Person and founding editor of Kwani?. He was the author of “How To Write About Africa.” He was an avid champion of gay rights. He left us in 2019.

Molara Ogundipe who died in 2019 was a Nigerian poet, critic, and editor perhaps best known for the concept “Stiwanism” (Social Transformation in Africa Including Women) which refers to, among other ideas, a resistance of Western feminism and the foregrounding of an indigenous feminism that has always already existed in Africa.

Tejumola Olaniyan was a Nigerian academic who held the position of Louise Durham Mead Professor of English and Wole Soyinka Professor of the Humanities at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. His books includeTaking African Cartoons Seriously: Politics, Satire, and Culture (2018) and Arrest the Music!: Fela and His Rebel Art and Politics (2004). He left us in 2019.

Harry Garuba who breathed his last in 2020 was a Nigerian poet and professor who served as the Director of African Studies, among other positions, at the University of Cape Town. His books include the poetry collections Shadow and Dream & Other Poems (1982) and Animist Chants and Memorials (2017) and the academic monograph Mask and Meaning in Black Drama: Africa and the Diaspora (1988).

Elsa Joubert was a South African author who was also a member of “Die Sestigers” and was known for her anti-apartheid novels. Her novel, The Long Journey of Poppie Nongena (1978) was adapted into a film in 2019. She passed away from Covid-19-related complications.

John Pepper Clark-Bekederemo, more popularly known as J.P. Clark, was a renowned poet, playwright, and professor. His work focused on themes such as insitutional corruption, violence, and colonialism, and he was also an outspoken activist for the rights of the Ijaw ethnic group. He received the Nigerian National Order of Merit Award for literary excellence in 1991. He was the third leg of the quartet of Wole Soyinka and Chinua Achebe, all archetypal figures in African writing.

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Study: Kidney function test not suitable for Africans

Researchers have discovered that a widely used blood test to detect kidney function is off the mark among African populations.

The serum creatinine test measures the amount of creatinine in your blood. According to the National Kidney Foundation, creatinine is: “A waste product that comes from the normal wear and tear on muscles of the body. Creatinine levels in the blood can vary depending on age and body size. A creatinine level greater than 1.2 for women and greater than 1.4 for men may indicate that the kidneys are not working properly. As kidney disease progresses, the level of creatinine in the blood rises.”

But a study by the African Research on Kidney (ARK) Disease Consortium, which sought to find the most accurate way to measure kidney function in African populations, compared the creatinine option with another benchmark test called the measured glomerular filtration rate (mGFR). 

Not fit for Africans

ARK researchers found that creatinine-based tests were inaccurate for predicting kidney disease in African populations. They refer to the test’s inability to account for the unique biological characteristics of African populations. The creatinine-based test was shown to be inaccurate for diagnosing kidney disease, and this may be because it does not account for “unique biological characteristics in African populations.”

The ARK Consortium comprises researchers from the:

  • University of the Witwatersrand (Wits) in South Africa
  • The Medical Research Council/Wits-Agincourt Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt) in SA’s Mpumalanga province;
  • The Malawi Epidemiology and Intervention Research Unit (MEIRU)
  • The Medical Research Council/Uganda Virus Research Institute and London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Uganda Research Unit 
  • The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), UK

The scale of the problem in Africa

Kidney disease is silent in the early stages because many people only develop symptoms when their GFR drops below 30 to 45 millilitres (ml). This means that most people won’t know their GFR is lower than usual. This is why screening people with risk factors for kidney disease remains essential.

The study used population data from Burkina Faso, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, South Africa and Uganda to estimate overall levels of kidney disease. The results suggest that kidney disease prevalence may be substantially higher in Africa than previously thought, increasing from 1 in 30 people to about 1 in 8 people.

Diversity of populations makes it difficult.

Dr June Fabian from Wits noted that the scale of kidney disease in Africa has been challenging to determine.

“The biodiversity of African populations means that what we find that applies in Southern Africa might not apply in West Africa. So, there aren’t a lot of studies that have looked at kidney disease in many African populations. We don’t have a lot of funding to do these studies, so a lot of the studies are often situated in a hospital with many HIV patients. So, they’ll report a high prevalence of chronic kidney disease, but it does not necessarily reflect what’s going on at the community level or in the general population.”

Fabian said population-based studies are required. But these are expensive and need a larger sample group. This is why there isn’t a lot of data from Africa. In addition, different criteria are used to determine the prevalence of kidney disease in other studies, making available data challenging to interpret.

“The point of our study was to try and standardise all of that. Because we did that, I think we can quite reliably say that the prevalence is between six and 12% depending on the country because people have different risk factors in different countries,” she explained.

Kidney function test flaws

Fabian explained how kidney function tests work to diagnose disease. 

“If you’ve got diabetes, and you go and see a primary health care nurse to test your kidneys, she’ll pull a tube of blood, send it to the lab, and the lab will measure the creatinine. And based on that, she’ll work out what we think the kidney function is.” 

This is done by estimating the glomerular filtration rate (GFR). The GFR is how much blood your kidneys are filtering through per minute. A high GFR means that the kidneys are working very well. 

“What we realised when we did this study is that kidney function in African populations is overestimated by using the creatinine test. We are reporting GFRs that are too high because these estimation calculations are based on studies done in high-income settings.” 

Before the ARK study, Fabian said the studies were done in countries like the US, Sweden, and Belgium. Very few studies have covered the African population looking critically at how kidney disease affects people.

“That is what we wanted to check in this study because a handful of really small studies showed that maybe the way it’s done in Europe doesn’t apply in Africa. This is because we are reading the kidney function as too high. If your GFR is less than 60, your kidneys filter less than 60 ml per minute. If the test pushes everyone up, we are not picking up people with those lower GFRs, which means we’re missing kidney disease.

Biological characteristics 

The “gold standard” refers to the method to measure kidney function that is currently working to diagnose kidney disease in Africa. Fabian said the problem is that it is expensive and impractical because a person must be there for six hours. 

“Because African Americans are big and have a lot of muscle, everyone assumes that everyone else in Africa is the same. Everyone thought that African populations have lots of muscle, and the creatinine would be high as they see it in African Americans. We found that people are quite small.”         

Fabian explained that another dependent factor is how much meat a person eats.

“If meat is regularly in your everyday diet, your creatinine will increase. In poorer communities, people often don’t have a lot of money and don’t eat much meat. Even in Bushbuck Ridge, women have very low creatinine, and we’re not sure exactly why. But in Malawi, people might eat meat once every two weeks or once a month. That is not the same as high-income settings where people eat meat almost daily.”

These kinds of factors are not considered during studies in high-income settings. Fabian emphasised the importance of doing this work in African populations. 

Risk factors of kidney disease 

“Your kidney function starts with your mom’s health. For example, if you’ve got a young mum with a pregnancy, who doesn’t get into antenatal care, delivers prematurely and might have diabetes or hypertension herself. All those factors impact your kidneys when you’re in the womb and are developing all the time, up to 36 weeks.” 

This means that if you’re born prematurely, at 33 weeks or so, and your mom never got antenatal care or was malnourished during the pregnancy, your kidney function will be impacted from the day you are born. 

“If you are stunted, your muscles don’t grow well, and you are malnourished. This carries over and impacts your kidney function later on in life. These are the kinds of things that don’t apply in high-income settings. We also see in poor communities that in adolescence, people go from being underweight, especially girls, to being quite overweight. And if that happens, that also puts you at risk of kidney disease because you’re at risk of becoming diabetic or developing high blood pressure later on in life.”

Too expensive 

Tests based on cystatin C worked better than creatinine to indicate poor kidney function. But it is not widely available in Africa.

The cystatin C test, which would be more suitable in Africa, costs around R320. This is three times more expensive than the widely-used but less accurate creatinine, at just R67.

“We know cystatin C is better in Africa, but relatively speaking, it’s a no-go in resource-poor settings,” says Fabian. 

The study’s findings suggest that moving from the creatinine test of kidney function to using cystatin C would be preferable. In addition, researchers said that it would also assist in ensuring accessibility and enabling doctors to use them should be a priority for Africa. – Health-e News

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US Ambassador wows Malawians

United States ambassador to Malawi David Young has wowed Malawians after testing street food at a township in Lilongwe.

Young who has been serving as ambassador in Malawi since March this year, tried a local treat called on Mandasi (doughnut) at Area 18 in the Capital City.

A video shared by the United States Embassy Facebook page show Young helping make a few snacks before trying them.

“Based on your feedback and suggestions on what street food I should try, this week I visited Mrs. Margaret Makhuza in Area 18 A to try her delicious mandasi. People in Lilongwe have enjoyed her treats for years – and I can see why. She even let me try my hand at making a few. They are my new favorite treat! Thank you Mai Makhuza,” young was quoted as saying by the US Embassy.

Malawians on social media have since hailed Young for his initiative to connect with Malawians at all levels.

“He’s an African American Ambassador for us. Very interactive and socialite at heart. Thanks for trying our locals,” said one person on the US Embassy Facebook Page.

Another person: “Honestly I love this Ambassador David, the way he associate with the locals is just amazing, he loves Malawi. He is a humble man full of fun. Hope I will meet him one day,” he said.

One person Twitter said: “Koma Ada awa alibho. He has embraced Malawian culture.”

Others, however, were not happy with the ambassador’s act.

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12 Must See Movies on Love, Equality, and Emancipation featuring leading Black Actors


By Kiana Wilburg

Kaieteur News – On August 1, Guyanese will officially commemorate one of the most important days in our nation’s history—Emancipation Day. It is of particular importance as it allows for reflection on the triumph of the African spirit over decades of atrocities, dehumanisation, and cultural erosion.

In observance of the significance of this day, The Waterfalls thought it prudent to share a list of movies that incorporate the rich talents of black actors and actresses to explore themes of love, equality, liberation, brilliance, and resilience.

Do enjoy this list of timeless black features.

1.     Cry Freedom:  This is a 1987 epic apartheid drama film directed and produced by Richard Attenborough. It is set in late-1970s apartheid-era South Africa. The film centres on the real-life events involving South African activist Steve Biko and his friend Donald Woods, who initially finds him destructive, and attempts to understand his way of life. Denzel Washington stars as Biko, while Kevin Kline portrays Woods. Cry Freedom delves into the ideas of discrimination, political corruption, and the repercussions of violence. It is without question, a phenomenal documentary and a must-watch for all to understand the plight of Africans in modern South African history and the oppressive nature of the apartheid system.

2.     Black Panther: This is a 2018 American superhero film based on the Marvel Comics character of the same name.  It stars Chadwick Boseman as T’Challa/Black Panther alongside Michael B. Jordan, Lupita Nyong’o, Danai Gurira, Martin Freeman, Daniel Kaluuya, Letitia Wright, Winston Duke, Angela Bassett, Forest Whitaker, and Andy Serkis. In Black Panther, T’Challa is crowned king of Wakanda following his father’s death, but he is challenged by Killmonger (Jordan), who plans to abandon the country’s isolationist policies and begin a global revolution. In the end, only one can win.

3.     Sarafina: This movie is all about strength, about people lacking it and people overflowing with it. Sarafina herself is a Soweto girl with great hopes for the future, despite her family’s poverty and her mother’s (Miriam Makeba) work away from home, forcing Sarafina to take care of her younger siblings. The movie is set in Johannesburg, during the Apartheid regime, and black children are forbidden to speak their own language. In spite of this, Sarafina dreams big and her world brightens up when her class gets a new teacher (played by Whoopi Goldberg), who teaches them about their worth and to be proud of their heritage.

4.     The Colour Purple: This is a 1985 American film directed by Steven Spielberg and written by Menno Meyjes, based on the Pulitzer Prize-winning 1982 novel of the same name by Alice Walker. The cast stars Whoopi Goldberg in her breakthrough role, with Danny Glover, Oprah Winfrey, Margaret Avery, Rae Dawn Chong, Willard Pugh, and Adolph Caesar.

Filmed in Anson and Union counties in North Carolina, the film tells the story of a young African-American girl named Celie Harris and shows the problems African-American women experienced during the early 20th century, including domestic violence, incest, pedophilia, poverty, racism, and sexism. Celie is transformed as she finds her self-worth through the help of two strong female companions.

5.     The Hate U Give: This is a 2018 American drama film that follows the fallout after a high school student witnesses a police shooting.

6.     John Q: This is a 2002 American thriller drama film starring Denzel Washington and directed by Nick Cassavetes. The film tells the story of John Quincy Archibald (Denzel Washington), a father and husband whose son is diagnosed with an enlarged heart and who finds out he is unable to receive a transplant because HMO insurance will not cover it. He then decides to hold hostages at the hospital and force them to do it.  It is a story that shows a father’s resolve to save his son no matter the cost or consequence.

7.     Hidden Figures: In heartwarming, crowd-pleasing fashion, this movie celebrates the contributions of women to history. Specifically, it tells the inspiring true story of three African American female mathematicians who worked at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) during the Space Race. The film stars Taraji P. Henson as Katherine Johnson, Octavia Spencer as Dorothy Vaughan, and Janelle Monáe as Mary Jackson. Kevin Costner, Kirsten Dunst, Jim Parsons, Mahershala Ali, Aldis Hodge, and Glen Powell are featured in supporting roles.

8.     The Great Debaters: This is a 2007 American biographical drama film directed by and starring Denzel Washington. It is based on an article written about the Wiley College debate team by Tony Scherman for the spring 1997 issue of American Legacy. The film co-stars Forest Whitaker, Denzel Whitaker, Kimberly Elise, Nate Parker, Gina Ravera, Jermaine Williams and Jurnee Smollett. The screenplay is written by Robert Eisele, with story by Robert Eisele and Jeffrey Porro.
Based on a true story, the plot revolves around the efforts of debate coach Melvin B. Tolson (Denzel Washington) at Wiley College, a historically black college related to the Methodist Episcopal Church, South (now The United Methodist Church), to place his team on equal footing with whites in the American South during the 1930s, when Jim Crow laws were common and lynch mobs were a fear for blacks. The Wiley team eventually succeeds to the point where they are able to debate Harvard University and win.

9.     Django Unchained: Two years before the Civil War, Django (Jamie Foxx), a slave, finds himself accompanying an unorthodox German bounty hunter named Dr. King Schultz (Christoph Waltz) on a mission to capture the vicious Brittle brothers. Their travels take them to the infamous plantation of shady Calvin Candie (Leonardo DiCaprio), where Django’s long-lost wife (Kerry Washington) is still a slave. They worked together to free her but it was not without its fair share of riveting challenges.

10.      Queen of Katwe: Starring David Oyelowo, Lupita Nyong’o, and Madina Nalwanga, this film depicts the inspiring true story of a girl from the slums of Uganda who becomes an international chess champion. It has strong themes of empathy, humility, integrity, perseverance, and teamwork.

11.      Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom: Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom is a 2013 British-South African biographical film directed by Justin Chadwick from a script written by William Nicholson and starring Idris Elba and Naomie Harris. The film is based on the 1995 autobiographical book Long Walk to Freedom by anti-apartheid revolutionary and former South African President Nelson Mandela.

12.      The Boy who harnessed the wind: This film is based on the true story of a Malawian boy named William Kamkwamba from the Kasungu region who witnesses a terrible drought in 2001. Driven by desperation William starts searching in books for a solution until he comes across the picture of a windmill. Since he lacks resources, he goes to the nearby garbage dump and uses what he could find to build s windmill. In successfully doing so, he is able to pump water from the ground for his family’s cornfields which leads to a successful crop being sown. Word of William’s windmill spreads and he is awarded a scholarship to attend school, ultimately receiving a degree from Dartmouth College.


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