Is WWIII here?

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Opinion

Is WWIII here?

The Russo-Ukrainian war, which began in February 2014, shows no signs of ending. Credit: UNOCHA/Dmytro Filipskyy

KYIV, Ukraine, Mar 19 2026 (IPS) – It is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the tension, violence and uncertainty in the world in recent years. The number of wars is growing, more and more money is being spent on weapons, and the rhetoric of major powers is becoming increasingly decisive.

The latest escalation in the Middle East has reignited the debate about the start of World War III. The consequences of the Israeli and US strikes on Iran are being felt to varying degrees far beyond the region, at least by those who follow oil prices.

The interests of numerous great powers are at stake, and third parties are considering their next moves and making political statements. Opinions range widely, from the belief that there can be no Third World War because of the existence of nuclear weapons, to the conviction that it has already begun. So, what is really going on?

A journalistic and academic concept

When historians talk about world wars, they mean two unique events in the past. Their scale, the involvement of a wide range of states, the level of violence and the nature of the consequences put them in a league of their own.

To understand how these wars differed from any others, one need only glance at the diagram of human casualties, defence spending, or destruction in various armed conflicts of the 20th century.

However, historians also have different opinions. One of them, better known in his political capacity, Winston Churchill, once described the Seven Years’ War as a world war. This protracted 18th-century conflict drew most of the major powers of the time into direct combat; it spanned numerous battlefields in Europe, North America, the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean; and it had serious geopolitical consequences. How was this not a world war?

By the fact that it was not a total war between industrialised states, the scale of the clashes was rather limited, as were the number of armies; and the consequences, although serious, were not systemic — this may be the response of more conservative historians than the British Prime Minister.

The number of armed conflicts in the world has been growing over the past few years: 2024 has been a record year since World War II.

‘World War’ is both a journalistic and academic concept. To enhance the effect, attract attention or draw conditional analogies, it can be used to describe more events than just the First and Second World Wars. For example, the Thirty Years’ War of the 17th century, the Napoleonic Wars of the 19th century or even the Cold War are sometimes referred to as world wars.

Within this logic, individual elements of a world war can be seen even today. The number of armed conflicts in the world has been growing over the past few years: 2024 has been a record year since World War II. According to some estimates, 61 armed conflicts in 36 countries were recorded this year, which is significantly higher than the average for the previous three decades.

Global military spending is also on the rise: today it has reached 2.5 per cent of the global economy, the highest figure since 2011 and an upward trend since 2021. This is still significantly less than during the Cold War, when a range of 3 to 6 per cent was the norm. Analysing these figures, it is clear that global security has deteriorated in recent years, but how critically?

A more academic approach would be to define a world war as one in which most of the major powers are involved; which has global reach and is total in nature; leads to enormous loss and destruction; and significantly changes the world upon its conclusion. Direct and large-scale armed conflict between major powers is a mandatory criterion.

And this is the main argument against the idea that World War III has already begun. No matter how high the level of destabilisation in the modern world, no matter how far large-scale regional conflicts have escalated, and no matter how much money states spend on armaments, this is not enough for a world war. Large-scale military operations involving major powers are needed.

All just fears?

This has not happened in the world for a long time. The interval between the Second and Third World Wars turned out to be much longer than between the First and Second. Nuclear weapons played a central role in this, raising the price of war so high that major powers began to avoid it by any means possible. This safeguard has been in place for over 80 years and looks set to continue.

Peace, or rather the absence of war between major powers, remains one of the central elements of the current international order. International institutions and regimes may collapse or weaken, regional wars may break out, but the likelihood of war between major powers remains extremely low.

Proponents of the Third World War theory sometimes point out that even in the absence of full-scale war between major powers, other manifestations occur: hybrid wars, cyberattacks, or proxy wars. This is true, but all these outbreaks of conflict are several levels below a world war in terms of their destructive potential and are not total in nature.

Throughout history, states have fought through proxies or resorted to information, trade or religious wars, but we do not consider these wars to be world wars — except in a symbolic sense.

A systemic war does not necessarily have to be a world war

Unlike the 2003 war in Iraq, the strikes on Iran are taking place in a world where, instead of US hegemony, there is complex competition between at least two centres of power. This adds nuances and forces other states to respond, directly or indirectly, for example, by supplying weapons or intelligence data, supporting one side or the other.

But this does not make the war global. Arms supplies, for example, are a common practice found in most regional conflicts, as is diplomatic or financial support from allies or partners. Even if American troops use the technology or expertise of partners – such as Ukrainian drones – this does not mean that Ukraine is being drawn into the war. Just as American arms supplies to Ukraine during the Russian-Ukrainian war did not mean US involvement in the war.

For a world war, the key ingredient is still missing: direct confrontation between major powers. In addition to world wars, there are also systemic wars. In these conflicts, it is not so much the scale that is important as the change in the international order to which they lead.

The Thirty Years’ War, the Napoleonic Wars, and the First and Second World Wars mentioned above were systemic wars: after their completion, the rules of international politics were rewritten and new ones were adopted at peace conferences and congresses. A systemic war does not necessarily have to be a world war.

Moments of hegemonic crisis and the beginning of the struggle for hegemony always carry with them the danger of new wars, arms races and escalations.

The current destabilisation and growth of various risks are largely linked to the struggle for the future of the international order. The United States and China have almost fallen into the ‘Thucydides trap’ — a strategic logic similar to that which led to the Peloponnesian War in the 5th century BC. At that time, the narrowing of the power gap between the hegemon and the challenger forced the Spartans to start a preventive war.

Today, there are well-founded fears that the decline of American hegemony, the rise of China and the approach of a bipolar world will sharply increase the likelihood of direct armed conflict between the superpowers.

The decisive, to put it mildly, steps taken by the US administration can also be considered preventive actions aimed at strategically weakening China’s position while Washington still has the upper hand. Such moments of hegemonic crisis and the beginning of the struggle for hegemony always carry with them the danger of new wars, arms races and escalations.

We are in the midst of such a crisis. It is systemic in the sense that it is not just a collection of regional conflicts in different parts of the world, which have become more numerous, but a manifestation of a large-scale redistribution of influence and power on a global scale. This redistribution will entail changes in the international order, because the rules of the game are linked to the balance of power.

If, at some point, the leaders of major states decide that it is worth taking the risk of war and paying the price, the systemic crisis will turn into a world war. But this, as the Spartans themselves said, is ‘if’.

Nickolay Kapitonenko is an associate professor at the Institute of International Relations at Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv and director of the Centre for International Relations Studies.

Source: International Politics and Society, Brussels

IPS UN Bureau

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Beyond Stereotypes: Reclaiming Muslim Histories during Ramadan

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Opinion

Muslim History Month poster- artist Siddhesh Gautam

DELHI, India, Mar 18 2026 (IPS) – In public discourse today, Muslims often appear as subjects of debate rather than authors of their own histories. Discussions about Muslim societies tend to revolve around geopolitics, security or conflict, leaving little space for the cultural, artistic and intellectual traditions that have shaped Muslim communities across centuries.

Reclaiming these narratives is therefore about reclaiming narrative authority. As a Muslim woman, I have often seen how Muslim voices are sidelined even when conversations centre on our own communities and pasts. It was within this context that I started Muslim History Month, together with my friend and colleague Ashwini KP, currently UN Special Rapporteur on Racism, in 2020, choosing to mark it during the month of Ramadan. Hosted on www.zariya.online, the initiative emerged from a simple conviction: communities must have the space to document and narrate their own histories.

Mariya Salim

Muslim History Month also draws inspiration from earlier community-led initiatives such as Black History Month and Dalit History Month. These movements have long shown how marginalized communities can reclaim pasts and their present, that have been ignored or distorted.

They remind us that history is not only about remembering the past but also about challenging exclusion and reshaping how societies understand themselves. Muslim History Month builds on this legacy by creating a platform where Muslims, and others who are allies, themselves reflect on the diversity, complexity and richness of their historical and cultural experiences.

What began as a modest collaborative project has since developed into a global platform bringing together writers, scholars, artists and activists to explore overlooked dimensions of Muslim histories. Contributors have written from Egypt, the United States, Palestine, Nepal and Russia, among others, representing a range of communities including Pasmanda, Tsakhurs, Roma and Uyghur Muslims. This year alone there are contributors from over 6 countries, from Lebanon and Palestine to India, Egypt and Indonesia.

The urgency of documenting these histories is reflected in the commitment of the contributors themselves. Rima Barakat, an academic in Islamic Art History from the Lebanese American University (LAU), wrote her contribution this year from Beirut. Explaining why she chose to participate in our endeavour despite living amid ongoing conflict, she observed:

“War always incites me to act culturally and to contribute amidst political turmoil. Historically, during World War I and World War II, artists and writers produced prolifically and contributed to sustaining a cultural economy. That is what I do today and how survival is measured by cultural and artistic endurance.”

Mihrab at the Jami Masjid, 17th century, Bijapur, India. Photo- Author Rajarshi Sengupta

Her words capture something fundamental about the role of culture in difficult times. Artistic expression is often treated as secondary to more immediate political realities. Yet history repeatedly shows that culture can become one of the most powerful ways communities endure, remember and rebuild.

The first edition of Muslim History Month brought together writers from different parts of the world to document overlooked aspects of Muslim communities. Contributors wrote about subjects ranging from Sheedi Muslims in Pakistan to what Ramadan/Ramzaan means. The second edition shifted the focus toward Muslim women from across the world who are no longer with us, many of whose contributions have faded from historical memory, from architect Zaha Hadid to Indian Spy Noor Inayat Khan. By revisiting their lives and work, the edition sought to address the erasures that often shape how Muslim women’s life and experiences are recorded.

The third edition, launched this year, turns its attention to Muslim art and architecture. Rather than limiting the discussion to monumental structures or gallery-based art alone, the edition explores a wider spectrum of creative practices. Art and architecture here include performance traditions, Calligraphy and mosque architecture, craft practices like Rogan Art, cultural rituals like wearing Amulets and everyday acts of creativity through which communities’ express faith, identity and belonging.

One of the contributions by Kawther Alkholy Ramadan in Canada for instance reflects on the aftermath of the Afzaal family murders in London, Ontario. In 2021, the Afzaal family was deliberately targeted and killed in an act of anti-Muslim violence that deeply affected the local community. Rather than focusing solely on the violence of the attack, Ramadan’s piece examines how Muslim women responded through creative and cultural expression.

Stories such as these challenge conventional assumptions about what counts as art. They show how creativity often emerges most powerfully in moments of crisis, when communities search for ways to process trauma and reaffirm their presence.

Another contribution from Indonesia by Adzka Haniina Albarri, for instance explores the performative art known as Shalawat Musawa. Shalawat refers to devotional invocations offered by Muslims in honour of the Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) The article examines how Shalawat Musawa has become a space where discussions around gender equality can be articulated. By encouraging women’s participation in a devotional practice historically dominated by men, performers are using art to engage with evolving debates about gender and social justice.

Across the edition, similar stories emerge from different parts of the world. Some pieces engage with contemporary artists, including an interview with world renowned Tunisian calligrapher Karim Jabbari, articles by Palestinian jewellery designer Mai Zarkawi and Egyptian academic Balsam Abdul Rahman Saleh. Others explore artistic traditions shaped by migration, diaspora and local cultural histories.

Muslim History Month III highlights how artistic expression remains embedded in everyday life. From neighbourhood cultural initiatives, architectural marvels, discussions on the Bihari Script Quran in Dallas Museum, to devotional performances, these practices reveal how creativity continues to shape the social and spiritual landscapes of Muslim communities.

They also illustrate the diversity within Muslim cultural production. Muslim societies are far from monolithic, and neither are their artistic traditions.

At a time when public discourse frequently reduces Muslims to political headlines or security narratives, these stories offer an important counterpoint. They remind us that Muslim histories are also histories of creativity, scholarship, craftsperson-ship and cultural exchange.

Documenting these histories is itself an act of preservation. History, and for that matter the present that remains unwritten, are easily forgotten or misrepresented. When communities claim authority to narrate their own pasts and present, they challenge the structures that have historically excluded them from broader cultural narratives. Therefore, Muslim History Month, then, is not only about looking back. It is also about shaping how Muslim histories will be understood in the future.

As Rima Barakat’s reflection from Beirut reminds us, even in times marked by war and uncertainty, cultural production persists. For many communities, it is precisely through artistic endurance that survival itself is measured.

Beyond the stereotypes and headlines that dominate public discourse lies a far richer narrative, one shaped by art, architecture, memory and the collective imagination of communities determined to tell their own stories.

Mariya Salim is co-founder of Zariya. She is a Human Rights activist and an international SGBV expert based in Delhi India.
https://zariya.online/category/muslim-history-month-iii/

IPS UN Bureau

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A Remotely-Piloted Weapon That Targets Civilians in War Zones

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A Remotely-Piloted Weapon That Targets Civilians in War Zones

A sign outside the UN Secretariat building last year.

UNITED NATIONS, Mar 18 2026 (IPS) – As the world continues to be weighed down in political and military turmoil, drones are being increasingly used as weapons of war in a rash of ongoing conflicts—including Ukraine vs Russia, Israel vs Palestine, US vs Iran and Israel vs Lebanon, plus in civil wars in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Sudan and Haiti.

Described as Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV), drones have fundamentally transformed modern warfare, “offering a low-cost, high-impact form of air power, challenging traditional military doctrines and giving rise to new tactics and ethical debates”.

Once limited to major military powers like the U.S. and Israel, drones are now being used by numerous state and non-state actors, including militant groups and even organized crime cartels.

The use of drones, particularly in targeted killings and with increasing autonomy, has raised significant international debate regarding accountability, civilian casualties, and compliance with international humanitarian law

UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said last week he was “appalled by the devastating impact on civilians of increasing drone attacks”, amid reports that more than 200 civilians have been killed by drones since 4 March alone in the Kordofan region, and in White Nile state.

“It is deeply troubling that despite multiple reminders, warnings and appeals, parties to the conflict in Sudan continue to use increasingly powerful drones to deploy explosive weapons with wide-area impacts in populated areas,” said Türk.

“I renew my call on them to abide fully with international humanitarian law in their use of these weapons, particularly the clear prohibition on directing attacks against civilians and civilian objects and infrastructure, and against any form of indiscriminate attacks.”

Many homes, schools, markets and health facilities were damaged or destroyed in the attacks, compounding the impacts on civilians and local communities, he said.

Meanwhile drones are also being used in the politically-troubled Haiti and also in the conflict between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda despite a peace agreement brokered by the US last year.

According to a report in Cable News Network (CNN) March 17, the war in Iran is continuing to disrupt travel across the Gulf after Iranian drone strikes triggered two major air incidents in recent days. Flights at Dubai International Airport were briefly suspended on Monday after a drone struck a nearby fuel tank, igniting a large fire.

The shutdown forced cancellations and diversions as aviation authorities closed the airport. Part of the UAE’s airspace was also closed for a few hours overnight after the country said it was responding to incoming missiles and drone strikes from Iran.

Meanwhile, the prices of many global airfares that bypass the Middle East are rising, as the conflict drives up oil prices and airlines warn of higher fuel costs ahead, said CNN.

Focusing on a military perspective, Siemon Wezeman, Senior Researcher, Arms Transfers Programme, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), told IPS more and more states, (and also non-state armed- rebel – groups) acquire drones of all sizes.

“Some of the numbers are quite amazing – Ukraine getting not a few 1,000, but far over 10,000 drones from various suppliers, and Russia, Ukraine and Iran each use drones by the 100s almost every day in the current conflicts.”

And different from some 10 years ago, when most of the drones where for reconnaissance roles, he pointed out, today many drones are armed and many more are ‘one-way attack drones’ (also called suicide or kamikaze drones). The latter are becoming a cheap alternative for long-range missiles against ground targets.

In the SIPRI arms transfers database (https://armstransfers.sipri.org), he said, “we record transfers of all armed drones, and reconnaissance drones with a weight of at least 150kg (we had to put a weight limit to be able to keep monitoring drone transfers with the resources and sources we have)”.

“And we clearly see in recent years that a) the total numbers of drones transferred between states has grown, b) several non-state actors (e.g. Houthis and Hezbollah) have also been supplied with drones, c) the number of states and non-state actors that have acquired drone has grown – most states in the world have now acquired drones, many of them from foreign suppliers, d) the number of producers and suppliers has grown – the simpler drones are offered by dozens if not 100s of large and very small companies and that number is growing, and e) drones, and especially armed drones.”

That is the picture for flying drones, Wezeman said.

But also, sea drones (surface or submarine) are starting to become popular – even if not yet transferred in any significant number. And land drones are also starting to become popular, he declared.

At a press conference March 10, UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Tom Fletcher said: “I’m really worried about drones in particular. I think the world has decided that it’s far more interested in spending enormous amounts of money developing these increasingly deadly weapons than it is on saving lives, and it seems to have decided that it hasn’t got time to work on ensuring that the rules that govern these weapons, these lethal autonomous weapons, keep up with the pace of technology.”

So you’ve got this dangerous alliance between very innovative technology and huge amounts of money and people’s desire to kill more people – and that’s a toxic combination, he said.

“And last year, 90 per cent of all deaths caused by drones were civilians, many of them humanitarians. And we’re seeing that across the crises on which we work – whether it’s Gaza, Sudan or in Ukraine, we’re seeing these bad practices move between crises”.

In the DRC last week, a senior official of the UN children’s agency UNICEF and two civilians were killed in drone strikes.

Amplifying further Wezeman said all these drones and one-way attack drones have become more capable, especially in range (the simple Shahed, one-way attack drones used by Iran and sold to Russia have a range of up to 1500 to 2000km), changing them from tactical battlefield weapons to more strategic weapons.

Development is very rapidly continuing for all type of drones, including making them more autonomous and intelligent to be capable of independent targeting and other decision-making. AI plays a growing role in this process. This process leads to questions about control, but right now it seems the process is moving faster than the discussion on controlling the autonomous aspects (see also our programme on emerging technologies.

https://www.sipri.org/research/armament-and-disarmament/emerging-military-and-security-technologies.

Will they replace systems with a human on board or in the loop? The development goes certainly that way and for missiles and one-way attack drones that has already started. For the larger, more capable and more complex systems such as combat aircraft, warships and larger combat vehicles that is still a future – but not a distant dream as development of for example drone combat aircraft is already moving into prototypes in the USA, China, Australia and Europe.

There still is an element of doubt however – drones need navigation that now is largely based on GPS-type systems, something that is not free from the risks of being jammed or stopped.

The simpler drones, with their simple technology, cheap and easy to produce are also not as effective as hoped. Most of them are rather easy prey for air-defence systems (or jamming) – while Russia, Iran and Ukraine send every day dozens or 100s to attack their opponents, most do no reach their target but are shot down or lost due to jamming or other causes, declared Wezeman.

Meanwhile Human Rights Watch said last week its latest research on “how Haitian security forces and private contractors working with them have conducted extensive and apparently unlawful lethal drone strikes in densely populated areas killing and injuring residents who were not members of criminal groups, including children”.

“We call on Haitian authorities to urgently rein in the security forces and private contractors working for them before more children die”, said HRW.

According to data from multiple sources reviewed by Human Rights Watch, at least 1,243 people were killed by drone strikes in 141 operations between March 1, 2025, and January 21, 2026, including at least 43 adults who were reportedly not members of criminal groups, and 17 children. The data also shows that the drone strikes injured 738 people, at least 49 of whom were reportedly not members of criminal groups.

“Dozens of ordinary people, including many children, have been killed and injured in these lethal drone operations,” said Juanita Goebertus, Americas director at Human Rights Watch. “Haitian authorities should urgently rein in the security forces and private contractors working for them before more children die.”

The United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti has attributed the drone attacks in Haiti to a specialized “Task Force” established by Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé that is operated with support from the private military company Vectus Global.

The US ambassador to Haiti has confirmed that the US State Department issued a license to Vectus Global to export defense services to Haiti.

Thalif Deen, Senior Editor, Inter Press Service (IPS) news agency, was a former Director, Foreign Military Markets at Defense Marketing Services; Senior Defense Analyst at Forecast International; military editor Middle East/Africa at Jane’s Information Group and UN correspondent for Jane’s Defence Weekly, London.

IPS UN Bureau Report

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Study focuses on pica prevalence and risks in many South Carolinians during pregnancy

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Health promotion, education, and behavior assistant professor Leila Larson conducts her nutrition-focused maternal and child health research all over the world, and South Carolinians will soon benefit from her expertise. With funding from the USC Collaborative for Health Equity Research (CHEER), an equity-driven pilot project program recently established by the USC Office of the Provost, Larson has launched a new study focused on pica (i.e., the craving and consumption of non-food items, like ice, and sometimes earth, like clay or soil).

Pica impacts pregnant women across the globe, including women in the U.S. – particularly those in African American, Hispanic and rural populations. Complications of prenatal pica include anemia, abnormal gestational weight gain, high blood pressure, negative birth outcomes, and other adverse effects, but despite these serious consequences, pica continues to be undiagnosed and underreported.” 

Leila Larson, Health promotion, education, and behavior assistant professor 

Though understudied and extremely complex, scientists and clinicians suspect that one of the primary causes of pica is the deficiency of certain micronutrients, such as iron. Ironically, individuals with pica experience an urge to consume non-food items (e.g., soil, clay, baking powder, soap, cornstarch, chalk, paper products), which often fail to fill the nutrient gaps while also worsening the deficiencies by reducing absorption of nutrients and exacerbating unwanted health outcomes by potentially introducing toxins, heavy metals, parasites, and other dangerous substances to both mother and fetus.

In many parts of the world, pica is common and expected as it has long been seen as a normal part of pregnancy. In other areas, however, women hesitate to report their pica cravings and behaviors due to feelings of shame and fear of being stigmatized.

Only two studies have examined pica in populations in the U.S. in the last 25 years. In California, researchers found that 51% of Hispanic women had the condition. North Carolina scientists discovered that 38% of rural women had pica during pregnancy, yet 75% of the participants had no documentation of the condition in their medical records.

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“Pica is viewed as a cultural practice, as well as a biological response to nutritional deficiencies, infection or stress,” Larson says. “But with so little research on the topic, we just don’t know enough about its prevalence, causes or impacts on pregnant women and their babies.”

Building on her pica research in Malawi, which showed a reduction in consumption of earth when iron supplementation was provided, Larson’s new study will shed light on which South Carolinians are most impacted by pica, what primarily causes pica in these populations, and how pregnant people experience pica in their everyday lives. By understanding their behaviors, perspectives, and experiences, the research team’s long-term goal is to develop culturally relevant screening and treatment protocols that can be used by health care providers in the Palmetto state and beyond. 

Larson’s study brings together a team of clinical, community, and research experts to explore this ubiquitous yet poorly understood condition. Consistent engagement with the study’s Community Advisory Board will provide a much-needed perspective on the project’s research approaches, study materials, dissemination, and much more.

“The cultural roots and high prevalence of prenatal anemia in the Southern United States makes pica a critical public health issue for this region,” Larson says. “With this initial pilot project, we hope to lay the groundwork for a longer, more extensive study aimed at understanding the risk factors, behaviors, and clinical impacts associated with this condition, and how we might improve it using community-engaged research approaches.”

Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolinia

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Oil Shocks, Political Upheaval and the One Solution Governments Keep Ignoring

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Opinion

Oil Shocks, Political Upheaval and the One Solution Governments Keep Ignoring

Credit: Marcelo Del Pozo/Reuters via Gallo Images

LONDON, Mar 16 2026 (IPS) – Once again, global oil prices are spiking, driven by the Israeli-US war against Iran. With Iran retaliating by attacking infrastructure and transport hubs and blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil passes, oil supplies from the region are being choked, pushing up prices. The cost of a barrel of Brent crude – the international benchmark for oil prices – stood at US$73 before the conflict but has surged beyond US$100 since. It could go higher still as war continues.

The impacts are already being felt when drivers fill up their petrol- and diesel-powered vehicles. But they go much wider. Bigger household energy bills will likely result, while businesses will pass on their increased costs in the form of higher prices. Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine sent oil prices soaring and sparked a global cost-of-living crisis, and now, as many economies seemed to be recovering, the war in the Gulf has brought another shock. Impacts could be political as well as financial: in numerous countries, the cost-of-living crisis helped drive voters towards right-wing populist and nationalist politicians. Recent years have seen Gen Z-led protests erupt in countries around the world, fuelled in part by young people’s anger at failing economies.

In a world increasingly characterised by conflict and with powerful states tearing up the international rulebook in pursuit of material interests, more oil shocks and big economic and political impacts seem inevitable. Governments typically react with economic policies that fail to protect those with the least, and by meeting political unrest with repression. They should consider another way.

The world will remain vulnerable to oil price shocks only for as long as it stays dependent on oil. The climate crisis compels a rapid move away from fossil fuel dependency to abate the worst impacts of global heating. Increasingly, this should also be seen as a matter of economic and political security.

Some steps have been taken in the right direction. Renewables now provide over 30 per cent of global electricity. Investments in renewables more than double those in fossil fuels. But fossil fuel companies have immense power and are determined not to give it up. That was reflected in the fact that 1,600 fossil fuel lobbyists attended the latest global climate summit, COP30 in Brazil, and succeeded in preventing any new commitment to end fossil fuel extraction. Their power is shown in the lawsuit an oil company brought against Greenpeace, leading to a widely criticised trial in North Dakota, USA, with the campaigning organisation facing a punitive US$345 million damages bill. Their influence was reaffirmed by Donald Trump’s election win, after a campaign in which fossil fuel companies gave US$450 million in donations to Trump and his allies – and they were rewarded by US intervention in Venezuela.

Fossil fuel companies are determined to hold back the tide of renewables for as long as possible, because every day of delay is another day of profit, even though every fraction of a degree of temperature rise means avoidable suffering for millions of people. Delay is the new climate denial.

As the latest State of Civil Society Report points out, civil society’s working to make the difference, urging governments to hasten the transition and calling on global north states to make funding available for global south states to decarbonise and adapt to climate impacts. Civil society is exposing the environmental devastation caused by extraction and the complicity of fossil fuel companies in human rights abuses. Its strategies include advocacy, public campaigning, protests, direct action and, increasingly, litigation.

In 2025, climate litigation scored some big successes. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) issued an unprecedented advisory opinion, ruling that states have a legal duty to prevent environmental harm, which requires them to mitigate emissions and adapt to climate change. This victory originated in civil society: in 2019, student groups from eight countries formed the Pacific Islands Students Fighting Climate Change network to persuade their governments to seek an ICJ ruling.

Following extensive civil society engagement, the Inter-American Court of Human Rights issued a similar ruling. The African Court for Human and Peoples’ Rights is set to issue its advisory opinion following a petition brought by the African Climate Platform, a civil society coalition.

These rulings can seem symbolic, but they strengthen national-level efforts to hold states and corporations accountable. These have paid off recently too. In 2025, two South African groups stopped an offshore oil project after a court found its environmental assessments were deeply flawed. More litigation is coming, including in New Zealand, where civil society has filed a lawsuit after the government weakened its emissions reduction plan.

But civil society faces a backlash. Around the world, climate and environmental activists and their allies, Indigenous and land rights defenders, experience severe state and corporate repression.

Last year in Uganda, authorities arrested 11 activists for protesting against the construction of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline. In Peru, police used teargas and non-lethal weapons against people blocking a road to protest against a mine. In Cambodia, five young activists from the Mother Nature environmental group have been in jail since July 2024.

The French government has repeatedly vilified environmental campaigners and deployed police violence against protests, while last year the German government launched an inquiry into public funding of environmental groups and the Dutch parliament adopted a motion condemning Extinction Rebellion and urging the removal of its tax-exempt status.

As the latest oil price shocks reverberate around the global economy, governments should learn the lessons. As economies deteriorate, the temptation will be to say that transition is a luxury, something that can be put off even further. This is the wrong lesson: recent research in the UK suggests that the cost of achieving net zero will be about the same as the cost of another oil price crisis. Economic and political security lies in ending fossil fuel dependency as quickly as possible. To learn the right lessons, governments should stop repressing climate activism and instead listen to and work with civil society.

Andrew Firmin isCIVICUS Editor-in-Chief, co-director and writer for CIVICUS Lens and co-author of the State of Civil Society Report.

For interviews or more information, please contact research@civicus.org

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Tanzania, Mozambique and Malawi Launch $7.12 Million GEF Project to Protect the Ruvuma Basin

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Environment

The Ruvuma River winds through wetlands and forests in southern Tanzania, forming part of the natural border with Mozambique. The river sustains farming, fishing and wildlife across the vast Ruvuma River Basin, supporting millions of people who depend on its waters for their livelihoods. Credit: Kizito Makoye/IPS

The Ruvuma River winds through wetlands and forests in southern Tanzania, forming part of the natural border with Mozambique. The river sustains farming, fishing and wildlife across the vast Ruvuma River Basin, supporting millions of people who depend on its waters for their livelihoods. Credit: Kizito Makoye/IPS

DAR ES SALAAM, Tanzania, Mar 16 2026 (IPS) – At dawn, the Ruvuma River moves quietly through a vast wetland along the border between Tanzania and Mozambique. Its muddy waters appear calm, disturbed only by drifting logs and the occasional ripple.

But the fishermen paddling wooden canoes across the river know the danger that lurks under the surface.

“Always keep away from the edge,” says Hamisi Mkude, a fisherman from Michenjele village. “Never trust this river.”

For generations, communities living along the Ruvuma Basin have learned to coexist with crocodiles, whose presence defines life on one of East Africa’s most dangerous rivers. Fishermen follow unwritten rules passed down through families: stay away from the water’s edge, avoid muddy banks marked by crocodile tracks, and never wade into the river.

“That distance saves lives,” Mkude tells IPS by phone. “Crocodiles attack from the bank.”

Inside the small fishing boats, discipline is strict. Arms and legs must never dangle over the side, and no one stands on the canoe’s edge while pulling in nets.

Yet despite the dangers, the Ruvuma River remains the lifeline of millions of people who live within its vast basin.

Stretching across about 155,000 square kilometres, the Ruvuma Basin connects southern Tanzania’s highlands with eastern Malawi and northern Mozambique before snaking into the Indian Ocean. Along its long journey, the river nourishes forests, wetlands and fertile floodplains that support farming, fishing and transport.

But the ecosystem that sustains these communities is increasingly under pressure from deforestation, unsustainable land use and climate change.

Now, Tanzania, Mozambique and Malawi have launched a new regional initiative aimed at protecting the fragile ecosystems of the basin.

Delegates from Tanzania, Mozambique and Malawi pose for a group photo during the inception workshop launching the “Strengthening Integrated Transboundary Source-to-Sea Management of the Ruvuma River Basin and Its Coastal Zones” project at Johari Rotana on March 4, 2026. The five-year, USD 7.12 million initiative funded by the Global Environment Facility aims to improve cross-border management of the Ruvuma River Basin, protecting ecosystems while strengthening livelihoods for communities across Tanzania, Mozambique and Malawi. Credit: Kizito Makoye/IPS

Delegates from Tanzania, Mozambique and Malawi pose for a group photo during the inception workshop launching the “Strengthening Integrated Transboundary Source-to-Sea Management of the Ruvuma River Basin and Its Coastal Zones” project at Johari Rotana on March 4, 2026. The five-year, $7.12 million initiative funded by the Global Environment Facility aims to improve cross-border management of the Ruvuma River Basin, protecting ecosystems while strengthening livelihoods for communities across Tanzania, Mozambique and Malawi. Credit: Kizito Makoye/IPS

A Transboundary Effort

The three countries have unveiled a project to strengthen environmental management across the Ruvuma Basin.

Officials announced the initiative during a workshop in Dar es Salaam, bringing together policymakers, scientists and conservationists concerned about the basin’s future.

The programme will be implemented with USD 7.12 million in funding from the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and led by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) with Global Water Partnership Southern Africa and Wetlands International.

About 65 percent of the basin lies in Mozambique, 34 percent in Tanzania, and a small portion in Malawi, making cooperation between the three countries essential.

“This inception workshop marks an important milestone,” said Julie Mulonga, director of Wetlands International Eastern Africa. “It represents the transition from planning to implementation, when our shared vision begins to translate into coordinated action.”

The initiative aims to improve management of forests, wetlands and water resources from the upper catchments of the basin to its coastal ecosystems.

A River That Sustains Millions

The Ruvuma River begins in the highlands of southern Tanzania and flows more than 800 kilometres to the Indian Ocean.

Along the way, it supports a wide range of ecosystems, including wetlands, forests, floodplains and estuaries that are among the most biologically diverse landscapes in southeastern Africa.

For communities scattered along its banks, the river is central to daily life.

Farmers depend on its waters to irrigate crops such as maize, rice and cassava. Fishermen rely on the river for their daily catch. Women collect water for cooking and washing, while pastoralists bring livestock to drink.

Seasonal rhythms shape life across the basin.

During the rainy season, the river swells and floods surrounding wetlands that serve as breeding grounds for fish and wildlife. In the dry months, shrinking channels concentrate fish stocks that sustain local economies.

But these natural cycles are becoming increasingly unpredictable.

“The Ruvuma landscape is both ecologically important and socially vital,” Mulonga told participants at the meeting. “Its wetlands, forests and agricultural lands support millions of people across Tanzania, Malawi and Mozambique.”

“These ecosystems regulate water resources, sustain biodiversity and underpin livelihoods and food security,” she added.

Growing Environmental Pressures

Environmental experts warn that the basin’s ecosystems are under mounting strain.

Across the region, forests are being cleared for farmland and charcoal production. Hillsides once covered with woodland are now exposed to erosion, sending sediment into rivers and damaging aquatic habitats.

Population growth is increasing demand for land, while climate change is altering rainfall patterns.

“Land degradation, unsustainable farming and deforestation are placing increasing pressure on these ecosystems,” Mulonga said.

Scientists warn that without coordinated action, the basin could lose ecological functions that are vital for both biodiversity and human livelihoods.

A “Source-to-Sea” Approach

The new initiative adopts what experts call a “source-to-sea” approach, recognising that environmental activities upstream can affect ecosystems downstream.

For example, deforestation in the upper catchments can increase soil erosion and sediment in rivers, affecting fisheries and coastal habitats further along the basin.

Project planners say the programme will focus on improving land management in agricultural areas, restoring degraded landscapes and protecting wetlands.

“The Ruvuma River Basin serves as a vital lifeline for millions across Malawi, Mozambique, and Tanzania,” said Andrew Hume, International Waters Focal Area Coordinator at the Global Environment Facility.

“This project demonstrates how safeguarding the basin depends on a shared vision and collaborative transboundary efforts. By supporting this initiative, the GEF is helping to connect land, freshwater, and marine management in a model that transcends national borders. This comprehensive, source-to-sea approach reflects our commitment to protecting international waters and will guide our future investments in shared ecosystems as we move toward GEF-9.”

The project aims to restore about 88,620 hectares of degraded ecosystems while improving landscape management across nearly 280,000 hectares. More than 50,000 people are expected to benefit directly from the initiative.

Representatives from conservation organisations say the project could demonstrate how integrated environmental management can work across national borders.

“The project embodies an integrated vision of land, freshwater and marine resources,” said a representative from the IUCN. “It positions the Ruvuma Basin as a model for transboundary resource management and sustainable development.”

Cooperation Across Borders

Because the river crosses national boundaries, cooperation among the three countries is critical.

Decisions made upstream can have consequences downstream.

For instance, changes in land use in Tanzania may affect water flows in Mozambique, while environmental degradation in Malawi could influence sediment levels in the lower basin.

For years, limited coordination between countries made it difficult to manage the basin effectively.

But officials say that is beginning to change.

The three countries have signed agreements to strengthen collaboration through the Joint Development and Management of the Ruvuma Basin.

James Chitete, head of the Malawian delegation, said the project represents an opportunity for shared responsibility.

“The project is not only about water management,” he said. “It is about safeguarding ecosystems, improving livelihoods and ensuring our natural resources benefit present and future generations.”

Improving Knowledge and Governance

Beyond environmental restoration, the initiative will also focus on strengthening governance and scientific research.

Experts say that data on water flows and environmental changes in the basin remain limited.

The project aims to improve hydrological monitoring and data sharing between the three countries to help policymakers make informed decisions.

“The source-to-sea approach recognises that land management affects river health and coastal ecosystems,” said the chairperson of the Joint Development and Management of the Ruvuma Basin.

“Decisions made in one part of the basin can have consequences across borders.”

Communities at the Centre

Experts stress that local communities must play a central role in protecting the basin.

Farmers, fishermen and pastoralists interact with the landscape every day, making them key partners in conservation efforts.

The project therefore emphasises community participation and aims to involve women and youth in environmental decision-making.

“The Ruvuma River Basin is a shared resource and opportunity,” said Shamiso Kumbirai of Global Water Partnership Southern Africa.

“Through cooperation and inclusive governance, this project can strengthen ecosystem health and regional collaboration.”

Protecting Wetlands

Wetlands – often overlooked in development planning – are receiving particular attention under the initiative.

These ecosystems act as natural filters, trapping sediment and pollutants before they reach rivers.

They also store water during rainy seasons and release it gradually during dry periods, helping regulate river flows and reduce flood risks.

“Wetlands are often undervalued,” Mulonga said.

“Yet they regulate water flows, reduce flood risks and support biodiversity. They are natural infrastructure that enhances climate resilience.”

Climate Change Challenges

Climate variability is already affecting communities along the Ruvuma River.

Farmers report shifting rainfall patterns that disrupt planting seasons, while fishermen say fish populations are changing as water temperatures fluctuate.

Floods have also become more intense in recent years, damaging homes and crops.

To address these challenges, the project will promote nature-based solutions such as forest restoration, sustainable agriculture and wetland conservation.

Experts say strengthening ecosystems can help communities adapt to climate change while protecting biodiversity.

Life Along the River

Back on the Ruvuma River, fishermen like Abdallah Hassan say they understand the delicate balance between humans and nature.

Declining fish stocks or polluted water would threaten their livelihoods.

“You must respect the river,” Hassan says. “If you respect it, it will feed you.”

As the meeting in Dar es Salaam concludes, officials express cautious optimism that the new initiative could improve cooperation and restore degraded ecosystems across the basin.

Conservation groups say the project could also become a model for transboundary environmental management in Africa.

For communities living along the river, the stakes are high.

At sunset, fishermen pull in their nets as lanterns flicker on the darkening waters of the Ruvuma.

Beneath the surface, crocodiles slither silently.

For generations, survival here has depended on knowledge, discipline and cooperation — principles that the three nations now hope will guide the protection of the river they share.

For fishermen like Mkude, the hope is simple: That the Ruvuma River will endure for generations to come.

Note: This feature is published with the support of the GEF. IPS is solely responsible for the editorial content, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of the GEF

IPS UN Bureau Report