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In the first 50 days of 2025, Kashmir witnessed a rainfall deficit of 83 percent. Data from the government’s meteorological department, accessed by Inter Press Service (IPS News), reveals that from January 1 to February 19, 2025, Kashmir recorded only 29.8 mm of rainfall against the normal precipitation of 175.8 mm—just 17 percent of the usual amount.

The mountainous region of Kargil in Ladakh recorded zero precipitation in 2025, marking a shocking 100 percent deficit compared to the normal rainfall of 18.5 mm.

Kathua, a frontier district bordering Pakistan, witnessed a deficit of 98 percent, with only 3.6 mm of rainfall recorded against the normal of 152.4 mm.

Srinagar, the region’s capital, recorded an 85 percent rainfall deficit in the same period.

Streams and Rivers are Drying up

Achabal, a 16th-century Mughal garden, is known for its gushing water stream that flows through its center, providing scenic beauty to the park nestled among majestic Chinar trees. This stream is a vital water source for about 20 adjoining hamlets. For the first time in centuries, the stream has dried up. The fountains are now rusty iron relics from the Middle Ages, and the park presents a frightening sight for residents. Terrified locals have gathered near the stream—some reciting verses from the Quran, others cursing themselves for what they believe are sins that caused the centuries-old stream to dry up.

Renowned earth scientist Professor Shakeel Romshoo told IPS that climate change is the reason for the ongoing crisis.

“The mountains from which the springs emerge and flow down to the habitations are hollow. Snow is the primary source of water for them. Over the past six years, Kashmir has seen little to no snowfall, and what we are witnessing today is the outcome of that snowlessness,” Romshoo explains.

He added that the Kashmir Valley has experienced a significant decline in snowfall, particularly during the peak winter season, leading to the current alarming situation.

“Snowfall is a major source of water for Kashmir’s population. With the pervasive lack of snow, rivers, tributaries, and streams are drying up. These conditions could severely impact the tourism sector, horticulture, and food security systems in Kashmir, with far-reaching economic implications,” Romshoo says.

The Jhelum River, considered the lifeline of Kashmir for water supplies, continues to witness receding water levels. Its level has dropped to -1.01 feet, below the Reduced Level (RL) of zero on the gauge.

A top government official responsible for supplying potable water to Kashmir’s inhabitants told IPS that the persistent rainfall deficit has affected the recharging of water reservoirs across the valley. He stated that the department is in a situation where it cannot guarantee sufficient drinking water for the people of Kashmir in the coming months.

Barren Slopes of Gulmarg

Gulmarg, a northern ski resort known for its world-famous slopes and enchanting snow-covered hills during winter, is currently dry and barren, with few traces of snow—a first-time scenario for locals. A small amount of snow fell at the beginning of February—a little to late, some say, as the popular resort area has already lost thousands of visitors and this has had a knock-on effect on the local businesses.

Abdul Rahim Bhat, 73, a local who owns a tea kiosk at the resort, told IPS that such a sight—where brown grass dominates the landscape with no snow in sight—was unimaginable in the past.

“I have spent my entire life here. I have always seen white snow everywhere during winters. Now, even the tourists have stopped coming, impacting my business and livelihood,” Bhat says.

The winter games at Gulmarg, which attract skiers from around the world, had to be postponed due to the lack of snow.

“The required amount of snowfall for competitive games is not there, which is why we have postponed the event. Unless there is fresh snowfall, it is not possible to conduct the games,” Rauf Tramboo, President of the Winter Games Association of Jammu and Kashmir (WGAJK), said in a statement last week. The Olympic committee this week announced that the Gulmarg leg of the Khelo India Winter Games would be held from March 9 to 12 after snowfall.

As per the government estimates, the revenue realized from the Gulmarg Gondola, celebrated as Asia’s highest and longest cable car project, was USD 1.35 million until December 2024. The ski resort welcomed more than 148,357 visitors. The postponement of winter games and the lack of tourists had come as a major economic blow for the locals of the area whose livelihood is dependent on both.

Sharing his predicament is Peer Irfan, a local restaurant owner who says tourists have almost stopped arriving. “They [tourists] would come for snow and not for exploring the barren lands. Here, you can see there is no rush, not many tourists. We fear that if the situation continues to remain the same, we may lose our livelihood,” Irfan says.

He adds that the government has not paid any serious attention to the ongoing climate crisis in Kashmir and that those affected due to it have not been provided any monetary compensation.

“We earlier had demanded to be insured so that we could safeguard our livelihoods. However, the government hasn’t paid the least attention to our demands,” Irfan says.

The tourism industry in Kashmir generates around USD 912 million, contributing to nearly 7 percent of the state’s GDP. Sectors like handicrafts, transport and hospitality are directly dependent on it.

Dilshada Bano, a 37-year-old carpet weaver from north Kashmir’s Kupwara, says that if climate change continues to wreak havoc as it is now, the major impact will be on Kashmir’s local populace.

“Tourists buy our products and if they aren’t visiting, who is here to provide us with a livelihood? This year, the sales have dipped due to snowlessness as a smaller number of tourists have visited Kashmir. Slowly and subtly, it is showing the impact on us,” Bano told IPS.

‘We are not doing enough’

Omar Abdullah, the head of the Kashmir government, stated that Kashmir is facing a severe threat from climate change, particularly in the form of a water crisis. He stressed the need for greater awareness and action. “We are not doing enough to educate our people about the dangers of climate change. A lot of that responsibility lies with us as political leaders,” Abdullah says.

Abdullah, however, did not mention whether the current situation could be declared a state of disaster for Kashmir.

Naeem Akhtar, a senior political leader and former minister, told IPS that drastic climate change is wreaking havoc on Kashmir, with alarming trends such as continuous drought, lack of snow during peak winter months, and the drying up of water bodies and springs that have been vital for centuries. He described the situation as deeply alarming and disturbing.

Akhtar says the government must prioritize addressing the pervasive effects of climate change. He urged the government to consult experts and closely monitor the situation.

“Short- and long-term action plans must be devised, including climate adaptation and mitigation measures, alongside the creation of a loss and damage fund to tackle the severe impacts of climate change. There should be no quick-fix solutions to this apocalyptic situation. A well-considered government response is the need of the hour,” Akhtar says. He warned that if the situation is not handled with caution, the region faces the looming threat of severe drinking water scarcity and a lack of irrigation facilities for agriculture and horticulture.

Farmers Plunged Into Anxiety

Abdul Salam Mir, a saffron farmer from Pampore in South Kashmir, told IPS that the dry weather and shifting weather patterns have put farmers in a difficult situation.

“We have little hope this time. Farming in Kashmir is entirely dependent on water. The acute water shortage is turning crops into dry, dead twigs. We cannot blame the government for this crisis. The climate has turned cruel,” Mir says.

Farmers make up 80 percent of the state’s population, and agriculture and horticulture are the backbone of the state’s economy. The unique climate in the foothills of the Himalayas allows for the cultivation of exotic fruits and vegetables not typically found in India.

However, this year, the government has issued a general advisory to the farming community, advising them to delay sowing crops due to bad weather and water scarcity. A senior official from the agriculture department confirmed that the advisory was issued to prevent further hardships for farmers and to draft a well-planned mechanism to tackle the pervasive crisis.

Although an insurance scheme for the farmers, namely the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY), was introduced in Kashmir as of Kharif 2016-17, its actual implementation has been inconsistent.

As per the farmers, the crop insurance schemes, particularly for fruit crops, have not been effectively executed over the years. This has left them vulnerable to losses from unpredictable weather.

“Last year, because of heavy rains, fruit growers in our area incurred heavy losses. When we approached the government for mitigation of the damage, the response was dismal. The assessment teams are yet to finalize the reports, leaving aside providing us with any financial assistance,” says Noor Mohammad Khan, an orchardist from South Kashmir’s Shopian.

Once a lifeline for nearly 10,000 fishing families in North Kashmir, the renowned Wular Lake is now fighting for its survival, with half of its expanse dried up due to prolonged dry weather in the Valley.

During winter, local fishermen from villages like Kehne Usa, Zurimanz, Ashtangoo, Lankrishipora, Laharwalpora, and Kulhama traditionally harvest fish from the lake, a vital source of income for the community.

“The lake now resembles a small stream. We have to push our boats to the center of Wular before we can even use our oars, as there’s so little water left. Fishing and harvesting chestnuts have been our only source of income for generations. Since my childhood, I’ve seen people rely on the lake for their livelihoods. Now, many in our community are forced to look for other work to survive,” says Nisar Ahmad, a fisherman from Kehneusa village.

The drastic reduction in the lake’s water levels has left the fishing community struggling as they grapple with the loss of their primary means of sustenance.

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Doomsday Scenario?

Dr. Muhammad Muslim, an environmentalist and assistant professor in the Environmental Sciences department at Kashmir University, warned that a winter without precipitation in Kashmir would be catastrophic.

He says it’s a “doomsday scenario.”

“A decline in precipitation will severely impact the region’s water resources. Such an event could reduce river flows, which are essential for irrigation, hydropower, and drinking water supply downstream.

“Reduced snow accumulation during winter would lead to lower water availability in warmer months, potentially disrupting fragile ecosystems and agriculture in the region,” he says.

Echoing these concerns, Dr. Amjad M. Hussaini, an agricultural scientist, highlighted the grim future if snowfall and rainfall continue to decline.

“Winter precipitation is crucial for the healthy development of plants and their vegetative growth. Without it, this process will be severely disrupted,” he says. “The long-term consequences are alarming. Glaciers are receding, carbon emissions are rising, and deforestation is rampant. Unless we implement a robust afforestation plan as a top priority for at least the next decade, the situation will only worsen. Without immediate action, we are heading in a deeply negative direction.”

Scientists are sounding the alarm with renewed urgency, warning that the Earth is nearing a critical tipping point. Evidence suggests that global warming is on track to reach or exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius—the threshold established by the Paris Agreement.

A recent study published in Nature Climate Change reveals that record-breaking temperatures in 2024 could signal the start of a sustained period near or above this limit.

While natural phenomena like El Niño can cause temporary temperature spikes, the primary driver of this crisis remains human activity: our continued dependence on fossil fuels, widespread deforestation, and industrial practices that escalate greenhouse gas emissions.

These activities have driven CO2 levels to unprecedented highs, even as global climate conferences, such as COP29, reaffirm pledges to curb them.

The consequences of crossing the 1.5°C threshold are already evident. Heatwaves, floods, and wildfires are becoming more frequent, intense, and devastating.

Note: This feature is published with the support of Open Society Foundations.

IPS UN Bureau Report

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