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If this were not heartbreakingly disastrous enough, heat-related deaths in older populations are projected to increase by 370 percent annually if global temperatures rise by 2˚ Centigrade mid-century. The world is currently on track to reach 2.7°C by the end of the century, up from 1.14°C above pre-industrial levels in 2013-2022.

With 2024 the hottest year ever recorded and the past 11 years declared the 11 warmest on record since records began in 1880, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report warning of an 80% chance that 2025-2029 will be warmer than 2024, predicting severe climate impacts, and nearing the 1.5°C warming threshold is alarming if not surprising.

As extreme heat grips many countries and becomes ‘the new normal,’ the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) warns of heightened health risks for older persons in the Frontiers 2025 Report published today.

Older persons, especially those with chronic illnesses like diabetes, hypertension and heart ailments, limited mobility, or age-related frailty, are particularly vulnerable to severe health issues, depending on the intensity, duration, and frequency of heat spells. These could range from respiratory and cardiovascular to metabolic diseases, as well as increased mortality.

“Heat waves are among the most frequent and deadly impacts of climate change, along with floods and shrinking ice cover,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. “We must be prepared for the risks these impacts pose, especially for society’s most vulnerable, including older persons.”

The 7^th edition of the Frontiers Report, The Weight of Time – Facing a new age of challenges for people and Ecosystems, is part of UNEP’s Foresight Trajectory initiative and highlights emerging environmental issues as well as doable solutions. The first edition, in 2016, warned of the growing risk of zoonotic diseases, four years before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Those worst effected by rising temperatures: where and why

“The (third) issue is the risk to aging populations from environmental degradation. It is estimated that the global share of people over 65 years old will rise from 10 percent in 2024 to 16 percent by 2050. Most of these people will live in cities where they will be exposed to extreme heat and air pollution, and experience more frequent disasters. Older people are already more at risk. Effective adaptation strategies will need to evolve to protect these older populations,” says UNEP’s Executive Director, Inger Andersen.

Projections indicate that heatwaves will become more intense, frequent and persistent in nearly all regions. As heatwaves intensify, scientists warn of the amplified danger when extreme heat and humidity combine. Higher humidity tends to limit the human body’s ability to cool itself through the evaporation of sweat.

When temperatures rise by 1^o C, estimates peg 275 million people will be exposed to humid heatwaves. The impact will shoot up to 789 million with 2^o C, and with an apocalyptic 3^oC rise, 1220 million people will be battling absolutely lethal humid heatwaves.

Already experiencing humid heatwaves are low-lying tropical regions of India and Pakistan, the Persian Gulf, the Arabian Gulf, the Red Sea, and eastern China.

Urban centers usually experience higher temperatures than surrounding rural areas because buildings, pavement, and other artificial surfaces trap, retain and re-radiate heat. This urban heat island effect and heat waves interact synergistically, exposing urban residents to greater heat and amplifying health risks.

Developing and low-income countries that are urbanizing at a fast pace are more at risk.

Rural-to-urban migrants often live in tin- or asbestos-roofed one-roomed houses, crowded and ill-ventilated, in informal settlements that spring up in low-value, hazardous land parcels without water supply, sanitation or electricity facilities. In recent hotter years, surveys have found the temperature inside these housing units is even higher than the ambient high heat outside on heat-wave days. Often poorer parts of cities have less green and heat up faster. Worse, night temperatures are not cooling down in cities owing to the heat-island effect.

Older adults who are uprooted from their traditional communities into cities, are socially isolated, economically disadvantaged, have cognitive, physical, or sensory impairments, and live in substandard housing with inadequate cooling systems or even basic water, are especially ill-equipped to withstand or adapt to heat extremes, say other studies.

Are only the elderly in low- and middle-income countries at heat risk? Latest reports suggest even the developed countries cannot protect their aged from growing climate heat.

A first rapid study released earlier in July by scientists at the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine focused on ten days of heatwaves in 12 European cities from June 23 to July 2, 2025. The researchers estimated that climate change nearly tripled the number of heat-related deaths, with fossil fuel use having increased heatwave temperatures up to 2°C – 4°C across the cities.

Of the 2,305 estimated heat deaths in those ten days, people aged 65-plus made up 88 percent of the deaths, highlighting how those with underlying health conditions are most at risk of premature death in heatwaves.

“It is society’s most vulnerable … who suffer most in the midst of record temperatures. Europe’s dependence and soft hand on oil and gas corporations who are fueling this extreme heat is giving a death blow to our parents and grandparents,” said Ian Duff, Head of Greenpeace International’s ‘Stop Drilling Start Paying’ campaign, called on polluters to pay up.

It is not heat alone that the aged are vulnerable to

Exposure to air pollutants such as fine particulate matter, ground-level ozone, nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide often triggers the onset and progression of a variety of respiratory, cardiovascular, neurological and cognitive illnesses and related deaths in older people, according to the Frontier report.

Nearly half of the 1.24 million deaths attributable to air pollution in India in 2017 were those aged 70 years or older.

Accelerating climate change that brings extreme heat, worsening air pollution, drought and dust storms, floods and melting glaciers is, in multiple ways, directly and indirectly, not only responsible for physical ailments but also for the development of dementia, late-life depression, anxiety and mental health in elders.

Building climate resilience for aging population: the time is now

“As this year’s Frontiers Report shows, solutions exist that can help protect communities and restore ecosystems long thought to have been lost,” Inger Andersen urges governments to implement adaptation strategies.

On its part, the report recommends transforming cities into age-friendly, pollution-free, resilient, accessible spaces with expansive vegetation through better urban planning.

Community-based disaster risk management and access to climate information are key approaches to help aging people adapt successfully to climate change. Investing in weather stations to monitor extreme heat is critical to protect lives.

The digital divide among older populations in cities needs to be addressed. Digital ignorance may affect their capacity to live in smart cities and be adequately informed of possible extreme events that may affect their survival. Otherwise too, day-to-day living—banking, medicine purchases, and shopping for essentials—are all going digital and, once mastered, convenient to the aged.

IPS UN Bureau Report

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