Waves of Change: From the Glittering Shores of Nice to Struggling Seaweed Farmers in Zanzibar

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Africa, Biodiversity, Civil Society, Climate Change, Climate Change Justice, Editors’ Choice, Environment, Europe, Featured, Headlines, Ocean Health, Sustainable Development Goals, TerraViva United Nations

Conservation

Yachts dock in Port Lympia, Nice, where the 3rd United Nations Ocean Conference is underway. Credit: Kizito Makoye/IPS

Yachts dock in Port Lympia, Nice, where the 3rd United Nations Ocean Conference is underway. Credit: Kizito Makoye/IPS

NICE, France, Jun 10 2025 (IPS) – The late afternoon sun sparkles on the waters of the French Riviera as yachts dock at the Port of Nice with mechanical grace. A tram glides past palm-lined boulevards, where joggers, drenched in sweat, huff past leisurely strollers and sunbathers. Just beside the promenade, a crowd gathers around a young girl. With braided hair bouncing in rhythm, she belts out Beyoncé’s Halo with stunning precision. Her bare feet dance on the cobblestones, her voice echoing against the pastel façades.

Tourists smile and drop coins into her hat. She grins, curtsies, and begins again. Her melody, effortless yet soulful, is a momentary respite from the conference halls just a few blocks away, where global leaders in gleaming designer suits dart to and from the United Nations Ocean Conference—a stone throw away.

Among those representing Africa is Tanzanian Vice-President Philip Mpango, who reaffirmed his government’s commitment to the sustainable conservation of oceans and marine resources, citing national efforts to combat pollution, overfishing, and the common affliction of climate.

“We must take action to protect our oceans and marine ecosystems. The challenges are enormous, but there is always hope for  when we build resilience  against the harsh impacts  of climate change that threaten our  coastal communities,” Mpango said in a statement aired back home on national television, TBC.

But as policymakers speak of high-level goals, thousands of kilometers away on the sun-scorched coast of Zanzibar, 43-year-old Amina Ali squats barefoot in the muddy shallows of the Indian Ocean. Her weathered hands move through the water with practiced familiarity, adjusting the polyethylene ropes that hold her seaweed crops.

“I used to earn enough to send my children to school and buy food,” she tells IPS by WhatsApp call, her voice tinged with quiet desperation. “Now, the weather is so unpredictable, and the sea is eating our farms. Some days, I come home empty-handed.”

Amina is among the thousands of women in the Zanzibar archipelago who depend on seaweed farming for survival. Once hailed as a booming green economy venture, seaweed production is now threatened by rising sea temperatures, shifting tides, and erosion—climate change-fueled adversities that have turned once-thriving beaches into battlegrounds.

Back in Nice, as the world gathers to chart a course for ocean health, Dr. Immaculate Semesi, Director General of Tanzania’s National Environmental Management Council (NEMC), underscores the stakes. “Our oceans  are our economic lifeline for thousands of our people; we must protect them at any cost,” she tells IPS on the sidelines of the conference.

Tanzania’s ocean territory spans more than 64,000 square kilometers, rich in biodiversity and crucial for food, transport, and employment. Yet, this “blue economy,” as experts call it, remains heavily underutilized and at risk due to Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated (IUU) fishing, marine pollution, and poor regulation.

IUU fishing, often conducted by foreign-flagged vessels, has long plagued Tanzanian waters. Fishermen employ destructive techniques—blast fishing and banned nets—that decimate marine habitats and undermine lawful fishing operations.

“We’ve made huge progress—blast fishing has been reduced by 80 percent through community vigilance and stricter law enforcement,” says Dr. Flower Msuya, a marine biologist at the University of Dar es Salaam, in an interview with IPS in Nice. “But we still face serious challenges. Seaweed farmers are suffering. Corals are bleaching. Fisheries are dwindling. Climate change is accelerating it all.”

In recent years, Tanzania has stepped up efforts to curb environmental degradation. It has banned single-use plastic bags, ratified international marine protection conventions, and adopted policies like the National Blue Economy Policy (2024) and the National Action Plan (2024/2025–2025/2026). These frameworks aim to integrate environmental sustainability with economic development across sectors—fisheries, tourism, transport, and renewable energy.

Zanzibar, the semi-autonomous archipelago, has become a model in this regard. Under President Hussein Ali Mwinyi, the region has elevated the Blue Economy to a national development priority. Seaweed farming has rebounded, recording over 16,000 tons in 2023, nearly double that of 2020. Fish production reached 80,000 tons last year, thanks to government support including boats, loans, training, and a dedicated Ministry of Blue Economy and Fisheries.

Tourism has flourished as well. In 2023, Zanzibar welcomed more than 638,000 international tourists, surpassing pre-pandemic highs. The number of hotels and guesthouses rose to 709, including new eco-friendly lodges that promote marine conservation.

“The Zanzibar model shows us that sustainability and economic growth can go hand in hand,” says Dr. Msuya. “But we need more investment, more climate adaptation technologies, and policies that reach grassroots communities—especially women like Amina.”

Still, gaps remain. Many seaweed farmers struggle to access modern farming tools, credit, or markets. Amina’s coastal village, once lined with seaweed drying racks, is now dotted with abandoned plots.

“We are not asking for charity,” Amina says. “We just want support to adapt. The sea has always fed us and we will always depend on it.”

At the United Nations Ocean conference, Mpango acknowledged these vulnerabilities. He stressed the need for global cooperation and regional partnerships to enhance ocean governance and marine security. His call for action resonated with delegates from across the Global South, many of whom face similar crises.

Tanzania’s latest marine action plans aim to increase surveillance, foster community engagement, and harness scientific research. These include more patrols to combat IUU fishing, tighter enforcement of fishing licenses, and partnerships with universities to monitor marine ecosystems.

Yet, the pace of change is often slower than the rising tides.

As the sun dips into the Mediterranean in Nice, casting a golden glow on the port where that young girl sings Beyoncé with raw emotion, her voice seems to echo the silent struggles of women like Amina—unheard yet vital.

The ocean, vast and mysterious, connects them.

From the gilded shores of France to the salt-sprayed coasts of Tanzania, the fate of the sea is tied to every song sung, every rope tied, and every promise made.

And as leaders pack up their speeches and fly home, the real work begins—not in marble halls, but in muddy waters where the ocean meets life.

IPS UN Bureau Report

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‘Ocean Health Is Inseparable From Human Health, Climate Stability’—UN Chief Urges Swift Action, Partnership for Ocean Conference

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Ocean Health

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres speaks to reporters at the 2025 UN Ocean Conference in Nice, France. Credit: Naureen Hossain

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres speaks to reporters at the 2025 UN Ocean Conference in Nice, France. Credit: Naureen Hossain

NICE, France, Jun 10 2025 (IPS) – “When we poison the ocean, we poison ourselves,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres told reporters on the second day of the UN Ocean Conference (UNOC3).

“There’s a tipping point approaching—beyond which recovery may become impossible. And let us be clear: Powerful interests are pushing us towards that brink. We are facing a hard battle against a clear enemy. Its name is greed.”

Guterres made the comments in a press briefing where he relayed his priorities for the conference and the need for urgent action toward ocean conservation and sustainability.

He remarked on the “clear link” between climate change, biodiversity, and marine protection, and that without timely and effective intervention, both the ocean and humanity would be irreversibly impacted.

Guterres called for increased “financial and technological support” to developing countries, including coastal communities and small-island nations, so that they are in a position to protect themselves from extreme weather and natural disasters.

As overfishing threatens marine biodiversity, countries must work together to enforce stronger measures against illegal fishing and expand protected areas in order to safeguard marine life. To that end, Guterres called for countries to deliver on the target to conserve at least 30 percent of marine and coastal areas by 2030.

Scientists have said that the 1.5 degree threshold to mitigate the worst of global warming is still achievable. Yet as Guterres pointed out, they have been “unanimous” in saying that the international community is “on the brink of the tipping point that might make it impossible.” As the ocean absorbs carbon emissions, this has contributed to the imbalances in its biodiversity, such as extremely high temperatures and coral reef bleaching.

There is not “enough urgency, enough spirit” towards an energy transition to renewable sources. Guterres urged countries to formulate and present Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for COP30 in Brazil. These NDCs or climate action plans should be “fully compatible” with the 1.5 degree threshold and that will work towards “dramatic reductions” in emissions by 2035. “We must accelerate our transition, and this is for me the most important objective of the next COP.”

Guterres noted positively the significant turnout from governments, civil society, business leaders, Indigenous groups, and the science community for this year’s Ocean Conference. This is a clear show of “momentum and enthusiasm” on the issue of ocean conservation and sustainability. He added that in the two years since the Agreement on Marine Biodiversity of Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ) was first adopted in 2023, 134 countries have signed it and 50 have ratified it, including 15 new signatories and ratifications since the start of the conference. The BBNJ may soon come into effect once it has received 60 ratifications or acceptances.

The spirit of solidarity that has brought groups from all corners of the world to participate in UNOC must be carried right to its end and beyond. “I urge everyone to step forward with decisive commitments and tangible funding. The ocean has given us so much. It is time we returned the favor. Our health, our climate, and our future depend on it,” Guterres said.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

Oceans at Risk: Report Warns Global Fossil Fuel Expansion Threatens Marine Biodiversity

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Biodiversity, Climate Action, Climate Change, Conferences, Conservation, COP30, Economy & Trade, Editors’ Choice, Europe, Featured, Global, Headlines, Natural Resources, Ocean Health, Sustainable Development Goals, TerraViva United Nations, Trade & Investment

Ocean Health

A report documents the impact of unchecked oil and gas projects in biologically rich and ecologically sensitive environments. Credit Credit: Spencer Thomas

A report documents the impact of unchecked oil and gas projects in biologically rich and ecologically sensitive environments. Credit: Spencer Thomas

SACRAMENTO, US & NEW DELHI, India:, Jun 9 2025 (IPS) – A newly released report by Earth Insight in collaboration with 16 environmental organizations has sounded a global alarm on the unchecked expansion of offshore oil and gas projects into some of the most biologically rich and ecologically sensitive marine environments on the planet.

Titled Ocean Frontiers at Risk: Fossil Fuel Expansion Threats to Biodiversity Hotspots and Climate Stability, the report documents how 2.7 million square kilometers of ocean territory—an area nearly the size of India—has been opened to oil and gas exploration, much of it within or adjacent to protected areas and biodiversity hotspots.

The findings are based on a detailed spatial analysis of 11 case study regions, with data drawn from government ministries, investor briefings, and independent mapping efforts. The report was released ahead of the 3rd UN Ocean Conference (UNOC3) taking place in Nice, France, this week.

Tyson Miller, Executive Director of Earth Insight, described the process in an exclusive interview with Inter Press Service (IPS).

“Our research unit selected 11 frontier regions out of many and built a dataset with a mix of publicly available data and digitized information where government data was lacking,” Miller said. “It was shocking to see the scale of planned oil and gas expansion and LNG development, knowing that fossil fuel expansion shouldn’t be happening—let alone in some of the world’s most sensitive ecosystems.”

‘Overlap between oil blocks and critical habitats deeply troubling’

The report warns of massive ecological consequences as oil and gas activities encroach on coral reefs, mangroves, seagrass meadows, and Important Marine Mammal Areas (IMMA). Many of these zones fall within existing or proposed Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs), which the international community has pledged to safeguard under initiatives like the 30×30 goal—protecting 30% of land and sea by 2030.

“Expanding marine protected areas is essential,” said Miller. “Safeguarding protected areas from oil and gas expansion and industrial development should go without saying. Yet, the extent of overlap between oil blocks and critical habitats is deeply troubling.”

In regions like the Gulf of California—also known as “the world’s aquarium”—LNG projects are already threatening a marine ecosystem that supports 39 percent of all marine mammal species and sustains hundreds of millions of dollars in fisheries. Despite local opposition and delayed environmental impact assessments, the area remains under active threat from fossil fuel expansion.

Meanwhile, off the coasts of Seychelles and Mauritius, the Saya de Malha Bank—a massive seagrass meadow that stores up to 10 percent of the ocean’s annual carbon despite covering just 0.2 percent of its surface—is now 98 percent overlapped by oil and gas blocks.

“There are important efforts underway to support the creation of a Marine Protected Area in the region—and if an exclusion of oil and gas and industrial activity in the area accompanied that, that would be a real positive step in the right direction,” Miller said.

Another key theme of the report is the outsized pressure placed on countries in the Global South to become new frontiers for fossil fuel extraction, even as they face increasing debt and climate vulnerability. Governments facing financial strain are often courted by foreign energy firms with promises of investment, job creation, and energy independence. However, the long-term consequences—both ecological and financial—are far more complex.

“Many countries in the Global South face high external debt and economic development pressures,” Miller explained. “Perhaps debt relief and payments for ecosystem services can become effective levers to help safeguard coastlines. Without this support, elected officials may greenlight projects that ultimately cost far more in the form of pollution, habitat destruction, and cleanup efforts.”

Indeed, the Ocean Protection Gap Report, also referenced in Earth Insight’s study, identifies billions of dollars in promised—but yet to be delivered—financing for marine conservation and climate resilience in low-income nations.

Incredible Work by Frontline and Indigenous Communities

Despite facing immense challenges, Indigenous and coastal communities are leading grassroots resistance movements in many of the threatened regions. In Mexico’s Gulf of California, local activism has successfully delayed LNG terminal approvals due to the absence of proper environmental reviews. In the Philippines, Papua New Guinea, Mozambique, and elsewhere, community-led campaigns continue to demand transparency, ecological justice, and a halt to extractive projects.

“Frontline and Indigenous communities are doing incredible work to oppose fossil fuel expansion, often with limited resources and at great personal risk,” said Miller. “They need more direct support and more visible platforms to champion their vision for the future.”

Yet these communities, according to the report, are frequently up against entrenched corporate and political interests, making their fight not just environmental but also a struggle for democratic participation, land rights, and long-term sovereignty over natural resources.

Policy Roadmap

The report has pitched a policy roadmap for global leaders, particularly in the lead-up to high-stakes forums like COP and the UN Ocean Conference (UNOC). These include:

  • Halting all new coastal and offshore fossil fuel developments, especially in environmentally sensitive regions.
  • Removing unassigned oil and gas blocks and stopping the approval of new exploration licenses and permits.
  • Ending financial support—including investments, insurance, and financing—for planned offshore fossil fuel projects.
  • Shifting public and private capital to renewable energy, including offshore wind and solar.
  • Ensuring a just transition that includes full decommissioning of abandoned offshore infrastructure and stakeholder inclusion.
  • Undertaking habitat restoration where damage from fossil fuel operations has already occurred.
  • Strengthening global legal frameworks, including support for treaties like the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty to prevent new coastal and offshore oil expansion.

“It’s time for global leaders to take bold, enforceable actions,” said Miller. “If the UN Ocean Conference wants to be taken seriously, it must directly address the growing threat of fossil fuel industrialization on coastlines and oceans.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

Portugal: No Longer an Exception to Europe’s Far-right Rise

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Opinion

Credit: Zed Jameson/Anadolu via Getty Images

MONTEVIDEO, Uruguay, Jun 5 2025 (IPS) – For decades, Portugal stood as a beacon of democratic stability in an increasingly unsettled Europe. While neighbours grappled with political fragmentation and the rise of far-right movements, Portugal maintained its two-party system, a testament to the enduring legacy of the 1974 Carnation Revolution that peacefully transitioned the country from dictatorship to democracy. It was long believed that Portugal’s extensive pre-revolution experience of repressive right-wing rule had effectively inoculated it against far-right politics, but that assumption is now demonstrable outdated. An era of exceptionalism ended on 18 May, when the far-right Chega party secured 22.8 per cent of the vote and 60 parliamentary seats, becoming the country’s main opposition force.

This represents more than an electoral upset; it marks the collapse of five decades of democratic consensus and Portugal’s reluctant entry into the European mainstream of political polarisation. Chega could hold the balance of power. The centre-right Democratic Alliance, led by Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, won the most parliamentary seats, but fell far short of the 116 needed for a majority. Meanwhile, the Socialist Party, which governed from 2015 to 2024, suffered its worst defeat since the 1980s, relegated to third place by a party that’s only six years old.

Chega’s meteoric rise from just 1.3 per cent of the vote and one seat in 2019 to its role as today’s main opposition demonstrates how quickly political landscapes can shift when mainstream parties fail to address people’s fundamental concerns. The roots of the transformation lie in a toxic combination of economic pressure and political failure that has systematically eroded public confidence in the political establishment.

Portugal has endured three elections in under four years, a sign of its novel state of chronic instability. The immediate trigger for the latest election was the collapse of Montenegro’s government following a confidence vote, with opposition parties citing concerns over potential conflicts of interest involving his family business. This followed the previous Socialist government’s fall in November 2023 amid corruption investigations, creating a recurring cycle of scandal, government crisis and electoral upheaval.

The political turmoil unfolds against a backdrop of mounting social challenges that mainstream parties have failed to adequately address. Despite its economy growing by 1.9 per cent in 2024, well above the European Union average, Portugal faces a severe housing crisis that has become the defining issue for many voters, particularly those from younger generations. Portugal now has the worst housing access rates of all 38 OECD countries, with house prices more than doubling over the past decade.

In Lisbon, rents have jumped by 65 per cent since 2015, making the capital the world’s third least financially viable city due to its punishing combination of soaring housing costs and traditionally low wages. This crisis, driven by tourism, foreign investment and short-term rentals, has pushed property ownership beyond most people’s reach, creating widespread frustration with governments perceived as ineffective or indifferent to everyday struggles.

Immigration has provided another flashpoint. The number of legal migrants tripled from under half a million in 2018 to over 1.5 million in 2025. This rapid demographic change has fuelled populist narratives about uncontrolled migration and its alleged impact on housing and employment markets. It was precisely these grievances that Chega, led by former TV commentator André Ventura, expertly exploited.

As an outsider party untainted by association with the cycle of scandals and governmental collapses, Chega positioned itself as the defender of ‘western civilisation’ and channelled anti-establishment anger into electoral success. It combines promises to combat corruption and limit immigration with a defence of what it characterises as traditional Portuguese values, including through extreme criminal justice policies such as chemical castration for repeat sexual offenders.

Despite Ventura’s insistence that Chega simply advocates equal treatment without ‘special privileges’, the party’s ranks include white supremacists and admirers of former dictator António Salazar. Its openly racist approach to immigration and hostility towards women, LGBTQI+ people, Muslims and Roma people reflects a familiar far-right playbook that has proven successful across Europe. Chega has cultivated significant connections with Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in France, Germany’s Alternative for Germany, and Spain’s Vox party, and Ventura was among the European far-right leaders invited to Donald Trump’s inauguration.

Montenegro has so far refused to work with Chega, which he has publicly characterised as demagogic, racist and xenophobic – a rejection that may have inadvertently strengthened Chega’s anti-establishment credentials. However, the arithmetic of Portugal’s fractured parliament suggests that any significant policy initiatives will require either Socialist abstention or, more controversially, Chega support, creating new opportunities for far-right influence, particularly on criminal justice and immigration policies.

Portugal’s experience offers sobering evidence that far-right influence should no longer be viewed as a passing fad but rather as an established feature of contemporary European politics. The speed of the shift offers a stark reminder that no democracy is immune to the populist pressures reshaping the continent.

The question now is whether Portugal’s institutions can adapt to govern effectively in this new fractured landscape while preserving democratic values. Portugal’s civil society has an increasingly vital part to play in holding newly influential far-right politicians to account and offering collective responses to populist challenges.

Inés M. Pousadela is CIVICUS Senior Research Specialist, co-director and writer for CIVICUS Lens and co-author of the State of Civil Society Report.

For interviews or more information, please contact research@civicus.org

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‘Our Weak and Corrupt Institutions Acted Too Late to Address Manipulation That Destabilised Democracy’

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May 14 2025 (IPS) –  
CIVICUS discusses Romania’s presidential election with Anda Serban, Executive Director of Resource Center for Public Participation (CERE), a civil society organisation (CSO) that focuses on public participation and transparency in decision-making processes.

Romania has experienced a dramatic shift in its political landscape following the presidential election rerun held on 4 May. The Constitutional Court ordered a new election after it annulled the December 2024 vote and disqualified far-right frontrunner Călin Georgescu due to electoral violations and alleged foreign interference. A new far-right candidate, George Simion, took first place in the first round of the rerun election, sending further shockwaves through Romania’s political establishment. A runoff vote between Simion and centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicușor Dan is scheduled for 18 May.

Anda Serban

What factors led to the decision to annul the first election?

Romania’s weak and corrupt institutions acted too late to address manipulation that destabilised our democracy. The court pointed to three main reasons for annulment: foreign interference in political campaigns, authorities failing to act on available information and the risky, short-sighted strategies employed by political parties seeking to undermine their opponents.

Judges found that illegal digital campaigning, foreign interference and campaign finance violations compromised the integrity of the election and decided a full rerun was necessary. Unlike other countries facing similar challenges, Romania’s response has been notably inadequate. While France, Moldova and the USA have tackled similar problems and some steps have been taken at the European level, Romania took far too long to act. In typical Romanian political and bureaucratic fashion, once information came out, politicians did nothing right away. Instead of following clear steps to act quickly, officials waited and tried to see how they could use it to their advantage.

How did this affect public trust in Romania’s democratic institutions?

This crisis exists within a broader context of eroding democratic norms. Trust was already low before the annulment, and with good reason. The government increasingly uses emergency ordinances to legislate, Bucharest’s city hall opens less than three per cent of its proposals for public debate and local authorities systematically ignore civic input. This comes on top of a poorly managed pandemic and a war in Ukraine across our border, with the aggressor’s voice amplified in social media.

Authorities have done nothing to reverse this trend. On the contrary, they have increasingly tried to restrict civic space and human rights. So when the election was suddenly annulled, it became the spark that ignited an already volatile situation. This ongoing institutional failure has had a profound impact on the credibility of the entire electoral process.

The aftermath of the court’s decision further damaged public confidence. Distrust intensified because authorities acted too slowly and inadequately. No senior official was held accountable. Without a public, transparent review, many people didn’t see this annulment as a real defence of democracy.

What role have established political parties played in the crisis?

The current situation stems partly from cynical political calculations by mainstream parties. The Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the National Liberal Party believed they could ride the wave of far-right and sovereigntist sentiment, represented by Georgescu, without serious consequences. They’ve maintained power for over 35 years. They assumed they could face him in a runoff and easily defeat him. But his support proved much stronger than they expected.

This miscalculation has now transformed the political landscape. Georgescu’s disqualification turned him into an anti-system symbol, despite being an insider and having held public jobs. Every candidate tried to claim the anti-system role, some more aggressively than others.

The resulting polarisation is unprecedented. Some Georgescu backers hoped to repeat a situation similar to the attack on the US Capitol on 6 January 2021. We’ve seen some insurrectionary slogans, such as ‘second round back’, fuelled by both real supporters and bots seeking to erode trust in the process.

Who were the leading candidates in the rerun first round?

Although the ballot looked very different from December, the ideological spectrum remained largely conservative. Most candidates appealed to the same pool of Christian-Orthodox voters. The biggest dividing line was foreign policy: some were pro-European Union (EU), others pro-USA, particularly pro-Trump, and a few pushed anti-Ukrainian, pro-Russian narratives.

The race effectively narrowed to five significant contenders. George Simion of the Alliance of Union of Romanians (AUR) emerged as Georgescu’s political heir. No one was able to fully capture Georgescu’s support base, but Simion came closest by copying his style and behaviour. He skipped all three official presidential debates, in one case staging a dramatic walkout with supporters, just as Georgescu did in 2024. While this showed a lack of respect for voters, Simion may have felt he had nothing to gain and only votes to lose. This strategy won him first place with 40.96 per cent of the vote.

Simion and AUR represent a clear threat to Romania’s European orientation. They are conservative on family and immigration, oppose human rights advances and are pro-Russian in foreign policy. The EU is under pressure from many fronts, and Simion’s rise adds to that strain.

The other candidates positioned themselves within this disrupted landscape. Bucharest’s mayor, Nicușor Dan, ran as an independent with the Save Romania Union’s support. He cast himself as the ‘lone wolf’ anti-system figure. During his mayoral term, he built coalitions in the city council for reforms. He received 20.99 per cent of the vote and will now compete with Simion in the runoff.

The three other candidates were Elena Lasconi, Crin Antonescu and Victor Ponta. Lasconi maintained that she should have been the rightful challenger to Georgescu in the previous runoff. She targeted Dan’s voters, accusing him of ‘stealing’ them. Antonescu, in contrast, represented continuity with the governing coalition. He relied on his rhetorical skills to fill the ‘calm statesman’ role Georgescu once sought. He showed a lot of pragmatism, expressing willingness to form any coalition – even with the far right – to stay in power. And Ponta emerged as a troubling surprise. He staged a political comeback with provocative proposals, adopting a Romanian version of Trump’s ‘Make America Great Again’ discourse.

How has disinformation shaped the electoral environment?

Online disinformation is moving at a scale we’ve never seen. In every election, parties try to shape the agenda, but when legions of bots flood social media to do it too, the rules change. Even if all parties use such tactics, it ends up being a matter of who has most resources to spread disinformation.

Media manipulation isn’t new, but its scale is unprecedented. We are constantly analysing campaign visuals and debating images of one candidate shared by another, while armies of trolls are flooding social media with copy-pasted comments on political and non-political posts alike.

Fortunately, civil society is fighting back against these information threats. CSOs are working with teachers to incorporate media literacy in schools, running workshops that equip young people to spot fake news and operating fact-checking services to debunk viral lies. As part of the NGOs for Citizens coalition, CERE launched an offline civic forum focused on TikTok’s role in this campaign to give voters the tools they need to navigate this flood of disinformation.

What are the prospects for the runoff?

Dan now battles for the support of first-round non-voters. Even if he manages to secure most of the votes received by all the other candidates, his electoral prospects appear limited unless he can attract a significant influx of new supporters. The key questions are how many of the 38 per cent who rejected Simeon Dan can persuade to participate and support him, and how effectively an anti-Simeon campaign can mobilise those who previously abstained.

A particularly notable development involves the PSD, Romania’s largest party, which has withdrawn from government and declared neutrality in the runoff, endorsing neither candidate. One optimistic interpretation suggests Dan asked political parties to keep a distance, believing them responsible for the substantial anti-system vote, and perhaps PSD agreed. We must also consider that anti-PSD sentiment has persisted for over a decade, particularly among diaspora voters, making the impact of its potential endorsement uncertain. More likely, however, a weakened PSD is simply distancing itself from the turmoil it helped create, hoping to return strengthened in eight to 10 months. Meanwhile, its loyal voting base now lacks direction, raising questions about whether they will gravitate toward Dan or Simion.

What remains unquestionably clear is that Romania’s continued alignment with Europe hinges entirely on achieving substantial voter participation in this pivotal runoff election.

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SEE ALSO
Romania: ‘People saw this election as an opportunity for change and expressed their dissatisfaction with the status quo’ CIVICUS Lens | Interview with Luliana Lliescu 28.Dec.2024
Romania: Protests erupt after court annuls presidential elections results CIVICUS Monitor 10.Jan.2025
Romania: Protests in Bucharest over election irregularities; government workers go on strike CIVICUS Monitor 30.Jul.2024

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Hungary’s LGBTQI Amendment an Affront to Human Rights, Say Activists

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LGBTQ

An amendment to Hungary’s constitution includes the banning and criminalisation of Pride marches and their organisers, with penalties including large fines and, in certain cases, imprisonment. Credit: Sara Rampazzo/Unsplash

An amendment to Hungary’s constitution includes the banning and criminalisation of Pride marches and their organisers. Credit: Sara Rampazzo/Unsplash

BRATISLAVA, May 13 2025 (IPS) – A controversial amendment to Hungary’s constitution has left the country’s LGBTQI community both defiant and fearful, rights groups have said.

The amendment, passed by parliament on April 14, includes, among others, the banning and criminalisation of Pride marches and their organisers, with penalties including large fines and, in certain cases, imprisonment.

It also allows for the use of real-time facial recognition technologies for the identification of protestors.

It has been condemned by domestic and international rights groups and members of the European Parliament (MEPs) as an assault on not just the LGBTQI community but wider human rights.

And there are now fears it will lead to a rise in violence against LGBTQI people whose rights have been gradually eroded in recent years under populist prime minister Viktor Orban’s authoritarian regime.

“There is serious concern that this legislative package could lead to an increase in threats, harassment, and violence against LGBTI communities in Hungary. When authorities criminalise Pride organisers and create a chilling effect on peaceful assembly, it not only emboldens hostile rhetoric but also signals impunity for those who wish to intimidate or harm LGBTI people,” Katja Štefanec Gärtner, Communications and Media Officer, ILGA-Europe, told IPS.

“The risks are not theoretical. Pride marches have long been a target for extremist groups, and this legal crackdown sends a dangerous message: that state institutions may no longer protect those marching but instead criminalise them. This creates an unsafe and unpredictable environment for all those standing up for human rights and democratic freedoms,” she added.

The amendment codifies legislation already passed in March banning LGBTQI events. It was met with widespread outrage in the LGBTQI community in Hungary. But there was also defiance, with Pride organisers insisting the event would go ahead.

Budapest’s mayor, Gergely Karácsony, also backed the organisers, pledging last month to help them find a way to hold the event despite the new legislation.

But while LGBTQI activists have said they will not give in to the new law, groups working with the community say some LGBTQI people have been shaken by the legislation.

“Depending on who you speak to, the mood now among the LGBTQI community is one of fear and worry or defiance,” Luca Dudits, press spokesperson for the Hatter Society, one of Hungary’s largest LGBTQI NGOs, told IPS.

“We will see how the new provisions [in the amendment] will affect the lives of LGBTQI people in the upcoming months, especially in June, which is Pride month, with the march taking place on the 28th,” she added, noting that after legislation was passed in 2021 banning the depiction and promotion of “diverse gender identities and sexual orientations” to under 18s, there had been  “a wave of violence and discrimination against LGBTQI people”.

“I’m hoping this will not be the case this time. A lot of people have expressed their solidarity and said that they will attend the Pride March for the first time because of this shameful constitutional amendment,” Dudits said.

Outside Hungary, organisations and politicians have also raised the alarm over the legislation.

In a letter sent to the European Commission (EC) on April 16, dozens of LGBTQI and human rights organisations demanded the EC take immediate action to ensure the event can go ahead and that people can safely attend.

They said the ban on LGBTQI events was an attack on EU fundamental rights of freedom of peaceful assembly and freedom of expression and that its provisions marked a significant infringement on privacy and personal freedoms protected under EU law.

Meanwhile, MEPs among a delegation which visited Hungary from April 14-16 attacked the ban and said they were calling on the EC to request the European Court of Justice to suspend the law pending further legal action.

One of the MEPs, Krzysztof Smiszek, of the Polish New Left, said the new law had led to a rise in violent attacks and hate crimes against the LGBTQI community in Hungary.

The government has defended the amendment, with Orban saying after the vote in parliament that it was designed to “protect children’s development, affirming that a person is born either male or female, and standing firm against drugs and foreign interference”.

The amendment also declares that children’s rights take precedence over any other fundamental right (except the right to life) and codifies in the Constitution the recognition of only two sexes – male and female – essentially denying transgender and intersex identities.

It also allows for the suspension of Hungarian citizenship for some dual nationals if they are deemed to pose a threat to Hungary’s security or sovereignty.

Many observers see the ban and the other measures included in the amendment as part of a wider attempt by Orban’s regime to suppress dissent and weaken rights protections as it looks to consolidate its grip on power by scapegoating parts of the population, including not just LGBTQI people but migrants and civil society groups, to appeal to conservative voters.

“Authoritarian governments around the world have discovered a playbook for keeping in power – it involves vilifying certain communities. That’s the logic behind attacks on LGBTQI communities and that’s what’s behind this. I don’t think Orban cares one way or the other about LGBT people; it’s just that they are an easy target,” Neela Ghoshal, Senior Director of Law, Policy, and Research at LGBTQI group Outright International, told IPS.

“Once you prohibit one form of protest or dissent, it becomes easier to prohibit all forms of dissent. I really do think Orban wants to prohibit all forms of dissent. He is seeking absolute power; he is not interested in the traditional architecture of democracy, i.e., checks and balances and accountability,” she added.

Dudits also pointed out the absurdity of the reasoning behind the government’s defence of the amendment.

“It is true that a large majority of society are either male or female. However, there are some people who have sex characteristics (chromosomes, hormones, external and internal sex organs, and body structure) that are common to both sexes. Intersex conditions occur in many different forms and cover a wide range of health conditions. The amendment is therefore even scientifically unsound, contradicting the very biological reality that it claims to be defending so belligerently,” she said.

If picking up voter support is behind the regime’s attacks on its perceived critics, it is unclear to what extent this policy is working.

Parliamentary elections are due to be held in Hungary in April next year and current polls put Orban’s Fidesz party – which has been in power since 2010 – behind the main opposition party, Tisza, amid voter concerns about a struggling economy, a crumbling healthcare system, and alleged government corruption.

Meanwhile, although some MEPs have publicly condemned the amendment, since the parliamentary vote the EC has said only that it needs to analyse the legislative changes to see if they fall foul of EU law but would not hesitate to act if necessary.

Rights groups say EU bodies must take action or risk allowing even greater curbs on freedoms in Hungary under Orban.

“From scapegoating LGBT people to suspending Hungarian citizenship of dual citizens, the Hungarian government is cementing a legal framework that is hostile to the rule of law, equality, and democracy in blatant violation of EU law,” Hugh Williamson, Europe and Central Asia director at Human Rights Watch, said in a press release.

“Orban has shown once more his willingness to trample rights and shred protections, and there is no reason to think he won’t continue on this authoritarian path. EU institutions and member states should stand in solidarity with those in Hungary upholding EU values and do everything they can to halt the downward spiral toward authoritarianism,” he added.

Ghoshal said, though, that whatever happens, the LGBTQI community in Hungary would not give up their rights.

“The community has been through cycles of oppression and freedom. The younger members might not be able to remember it, but older members of the community will know what it is like to live under an authoritarian regime; it is in the country’s history. They have also had a taste of freedom too and they will not want to give that up.

“I think there will be a Pride march and I think there could be state violence and arrests there, but the community will remain defiant no matter what,” she said.

IPS UN Bureau Report

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