Conflict, Climate Change Push Migrants in Yemen to Return to Their Home Countries

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Humanitarian Emergencies

People in Yemen impacted by war and climate shocks receive aid from the IOM. Photo credit: Majed Mohammed/IOM Yemen

People in Yemen impacted by war and climate shocks receive aid from the IOM. Photo credit: Majed Mohammed/IOM Yemen

UNITED NATIONS, Jul 13 2025 (IPS) – Yemen’s humanitarian crisis, driven by conflict, economic collapse and climate shocks, leaves migrants desperate to return to their home countries.

In March 2025, the Global Data Institute Displacement Tracking Matrix recorded that 1,234 non-Yemeni migrants left the country.

Once a critical transit and destination point, Yemen is unable to support incoming asylum seekers. Yemenis are struggling to survive amidst a decade-long conflict and worsening climate change impacts. Over 4.8 million people are internally displaced, and 20 million rely on aid.

Most migrants come from Ethiopia and Somalia, searching for safety or work in the Gulf countries. However, many become stranded in Yemen due to the harsh conditions and abuse.

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) found that in 2024, around 60,900 migrants arrived in Yemen with no means to survive. Subsequently, they are exposed to severe protection risks, including physical and sexual violence, exploitation, abduction, detention, and debt bondage.

“With limited humanitarian resources and few service providers on the ground, migrants often suffer from hunger, untreated medical conditions, and lack of shelter. Many are stranded without access to even the most basic services,” said the IOM to IPS.

“Meanwhile, public hostility toward migrants has increased, as they are increasingly viewed as competing with vulnerable Yemeni populations for scarce assistance. The ongoing conflict in Yemen further compounds these vulnerabilities, with migrants caught in airstrikes, exposed to explosive ordnance, and lacking access to safety.”

Women and girls are the most vulnerable group of migrants traveling through Yemen. They are disproportionately threatened with gender-based and sexual abuse.

“I’ve been beaten, detained, and exploited in Yemen,” said a 24-year-old Ethiopian woman to IOM. “Most nights, I went hungry. After everything that happened to me, I am happy to go back to my home and family.”

Severe climate impacts also make it increasingly difficult for both migrants and Yemenis to access food and water. Around 17.1 million Yemenis are struggling with food insecurity, and climate-related issues are only exacerbating this crisis.

The June 2025 Migration, Environment, and Climate Change (MECC) Country Report on Yemen by the IOM says that Yemen is the 12th most water-scarce country in the world. This significantly influences food insecurity, as rising temperatures caused by climate change create unpredictable rainfall.

In some areas, severe droughts are turning fertile farmland into arid deserts, forcing farmers to plant new crops or move in search of better conditions. Meanwhile, in other communities, heavy rain is sparking extreme flooding. Impacted areas are decimated by soil erosion and disease from contaminated water.

“Areas that used to experience heavy rainfall have now suffered from drought, and farmers have to adapt to this drought by either planting drought-resistant crops, changing their livelihoods, or migrating to another location. And some areas used to suffer from drought but now experience heavy rainfall, where the intensity of rainfall has led to the emergence of new diseases brought by floods,” said an official in the General Authority for Environmental Protection responsible for planning and information to the IOM.

Together, brutal conflict and a lack of access to vital necessities significantly limit migrants’ ability to return to their home countries. The IOM reported that in 2020, around 18,200 people risked their lives traveling by sea. Overcrowded vessels traversing rough waters often capsize, killing dozens on board.

For others, their journey back home leads them through heavily war-inflicted areas. Without proper assistance, migrants are left to navigate through dangerous frontlines, risking death from armed violence and landmines.

However, programs like the IOM’s Voluntary Humanitarian Return (VHR) aim to facilitate migrants’ safe return home. VHR is one of the only solutions for stranded migrants to voluntarily return in a safe and dignified manner.

So far, the IOM has helped 66 migrants safely return this year. This is a significant drop compared to the 5,200 individuals returned in 2024.

“IOM provides lifesaving protection and health service through Migrant Response Points (MRPs) in Aden, Sanaa and Marib and Community-based Care centers in Aden and Sanaa, as well as through mobile teams along the migratory routes funded by ECHO and UK FCDO,” said the IOM to IPS. “Since 2015, IOM has been facilitating Voluntary Humanitarian Return (VHR) as the only viable solution for stranded migrants who wish to return home voluntarily, safely, and with dignity.”

The IOM is backed by numerous groups such as the European Union, the King Salman Humanitarian Aid and Relief Centre (KSrelief), the US State Department’s Bureau of Population, Refugees and Migration, and the governments of Germany, France, Norway, and Finland. Unfortunately, despite widespread support for the program, more donations are urgently needed. The IOM is struggling to help migrants due to significant funding cuts.

“As migration flows continue to surge, the demand for safe and dignified return options for migrants has reached critical levels,” said Matt Huber, IOM’s former Chief of Mission in Yemen. “Without immediate funding support, the continuity of this vital programme is at risk, leaving thousands of vulnerable migrants stranded in precarious conditions with many experiencing serious protection violations.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

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UN Funding Crisis Threatens Work of Human Rights Council

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Opinion

The Human Rights Council is an intergovernmental body within the UN system responsible for strengthening the promotion and protection of human rights around the globe, and for addressing situations of human rights violations, and making recommendations on them, according to the UN. It has the ability to discuss all thematic human rights issues and situations that require its attention throughout the year. It meets at the United Nations Office at Geneva (UNOG).

NEW YORK / GENEVA, Jul 11 2025 (IPS) – The United Nations Human Rights Council (HRC) has expressed concern at the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights’ announcement that certain activities mandated by the council cannot be delivered due to a lack of funding. The council has sought clarity on why certain activities had been singled out.

Among the activities the commissioner says can’t be delivered is the commission of inquiry on grave abuses in Eastern Congo, an important initiative created—at least on paper—at an emergency session of the HRC in February in response to an appeal by Congolese, regional, and international rights groups.

The establishment of the commission offered a glimmer of hope in the face of grave and ongoing atrocities in the region, and it was hoped it might be an important step toward ending the cycle of abuse and impunity and delivering justice and reparations for victims and survivors.

It is not only the activities highlighted by the commissioner that are impacted by the funding crisis, however. Virtually all the HRC’s work has been affected, with investigations into rights abuses—for example in Sudan, Palestine, and Ukraine—reportedly operating at approximately 30-60 percent of capacity.

In discussions about the proposed cuts, several states—notably those credibly accused of rights abuses—have sought to use the financial crisis as cover to attack the council’s country-focused investigative mandates or undermine the Office of the High Commissioner’s broader work and independence. For example, Eritrea invoked the crisis in its ultimately unsuccessful effort to end council scrutiny of its own dismal rights record.

Amid discussions on the current crisis, there has been little reflection among states on how the UN got into this mess. States failing to pay their membership contributions, or failing to pay on time, has compounded the chronic underfunding of the UN’s human rights pillar over decades.

The United States’ failure to pay virtually anything at the moment, followed by China’s late payments, bear the greatest responsibility for the current financial shortfall given their contributions account for nearly half of the UN’s budget.

But they are not alone: 79 countries reportedly still haven’t paid their fees for 2025 (expected in February). Among those that haven’t yet paid this year are Eritrea, Iran, Cuba, Russia, and others that have used the crisis to take aim at the council’s country mandates or to undermine the work or independence of the high commissioner’s office.

Rather than seeking to meddle in the office’s work or reduce the HRC’s scrutiny of crises, states should work with the UN to ensure funds are available for at least partial delivery of all activities they mandate through the council, particularly in emergencies.

Urgent investigations into situations of mass atrocities are key tools for prevention, protection, and supporting access to justice. They cannot wait until the financial crisis blows over.

Lucy McKernan is United Nations Deputy Director, Advocacy, Human Rights Watch (HRW), and Hilary Power is UN Geneva Director, HRW

IPS UN Bureau

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HIV/AIDS Funding Crisis Risks Reversing Decades of Global Progress

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Health

About 9.2 million people across the world living with HIV were not receiving treatment in 2024, according to the UNAIDS report. At the launch of the report was Rev. Mbulelo Dyasi, Executive Director of SANARELA. Winnie Byanyima, UNAIDS Executive Director, Aaron Motsoaledi, Minister of Health of South Africa. Juwan Betty Wani, Programme Coordinator, Adolescents Girls and young women Network South Sudan. Helen Rees, Executive Director, Wits RHI. Credit: UNAIDS

About 9.2 million people across the world living with HIV were not receiving treatment in 2024, according to the UNAIDS report. At the launch of the report was Rev. Mbulelo Dyasi, Executive Director of SANARELA. Winnie Byanyima, UNAIDS Executive Director, Aaron Motsoaledi, Minister of Health of South Africa. Juwan Betty Wani, Programme Coordinator, Adolescents Girls and young women Network South Sudan. Helen Rees, Executive Director, Wits RHI. Credit: UNAIDS

UNITED NATIONS, Jul 10 2025 (IPS) – UNAIDS called the funding crisis a ticking time bomb, saying the impact of the US cuts to the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) could result in 4 million unnecessary AIDS-related deaths by 2029.

A historic withdrawal of global HIV/AIDS funding threatens to derail decades of hard-won progress in the fight against AIDS, according to UNAIDS’ annual report, entitled Aids, Crisis and the Power to Transform. This funding shortage – caused by sudden and massive cuts from international donors – is already dismantling frontline services, disrupting lifesaving treatments for millions and endangering countless lives in the world’s most vulnerable communities.

“This is not just a funding gap—it’s a ticking time bomb,” said UNAIDS Executive Director Winnie Byanyima.

Despite major strides in 2024, including a decrease in new HIV infections by 40 percent and a decrease in AIDS-related deaths by 56% since 2010, the onset of restricted international assistance, which makes up 80 percent of prevention in low- and middle-income countries, could have disastrous effects. The report, mostly researched at the end of 2024, concluded that the end of AIDS as a public health threat by 2030 was in sight.

However, in early 2025 the United States government announced “shifting foreign assistance strategies,” causing them to withdraw aid from organizations like the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which had earlier promised 4.3 billion USD in 2025. PEPFAR is one of the primary HIV testing and treatment services in countries most affected. Such a drastic decision could have ripple effects, including pushing other major donor countries to revoke their aid. The report projected that if international funding permanently disappears, they expect an additional 6 million HIV infections and 4 million AIDS-related deaths by 2029.

At a Press Briefing, Assistant Secretary-General for UNAIDS Angeli Achrekar noted the importance of PEPFAR since its inception in 2003, calling it one of the most successful public health endeavors. She expressed hope that as the US lessens its support, other organizations and countries are able to take up the global promise of ending AIDS without eroding the gains already made.

Achrekar noted “acute shifts” in a weakening of commitment from countries less directly affected by HIV/AIDS since the US has pulled funding.

UNAIDS also reports a rising number of countries criminalizing populations most at risk of HIV – raising stigma and worsening gender-based violence and non-consensual sex, two of the highest HIV risk-enhancing behaviors. The report showed the primary groups who lacked care were child HIV infections and young women, which is likely related to government campaigns  “attacking HIV-related human rights, including for public health, with girls, women and people from key populations.”

These punitive laws include criminalization or prosecution based on general criminal laws of HIV exposure, criminalization of sex work, transgender people and same-sex sexual activity and possession of small amounts of drugs. These laws have been on the rise for the past few years, and in conjunction with limited funding, the results for HIV/AIDS-positive patients could be fatal.

Recently, scientific breakthroughs have been made regarding long-acting medicine to prevent HIV infection. Health workers have seen tremendous success, both with new technologies like annual injections and the potential for more growth in the form of monthly preventative tablets and in old prevention techniques like condom procurement and distribution and access to clean, safe needles for drug users. However, due to various global conflicts and wars, supply chains have been disrupted, often harming countries not in the thick of the altercation but reliant on products like PrEP, an HIV prevention medication.

Although many countries most afflicted with the AIDS crisis have stepped up, promising more national funding for the issue, and many community networks have doubled down on their efforts, the disruption of supply chains and the lack of international frontline health workers cannot be solved overnight. To entirely restructure how healthcare is provided takes time – something those with HIV do not always have.

Areas like sub-Saharan Africa, which in 2024 housed half of the 9.2 million people not receiving HIV treatment, have been particularly affected by the recent changes. The majority of child infections still occur there, and combinations of “debt distress, slow economic growth and underperforming tax systems” provide countries in sub-Saharan Africa with limited fiscal room to increase domestic funding for HIV.

Despite the loss of funding, significant progress has been made to protect essential HIV treatment gains. South Africa currently funds 77% of its AIDS response, and its 2025 budget review includes a 3.3% annual increase for HIV and tuberculosis programs over the next three years. As of December 2024, seven countries in sub-Saharan Africa have achieved the 95-95-95 targets established by UNAIDS: 95% of people living with HIV know their status, 95% of those are on treatment, and 95% of those on treatment are virally suppressed. UNAIDS emphasized the importance of this being scaled up to a global level.

Achrekar observed, referring to countries whose domestic funds towards AIDS have increased, that “prevention is the last thing that is prioritized, but we will never be able to turn off the tap of the new infections without focusing on prevention as well.”

She reiterated the importance of countries most affected by the HIV/AIDS crisis establishing self-sustaining health practices to ensure longevity in both prevention and treatment.

Achrekar praised the global South for their work in taking ownership of treatment while still calling upon the rest of the world to join.

She said, “The HIV response was forged in crisis, and it was built to be resilient. We need, and are calling for, global solidarity once again, to rebuild a nationally owned and led, sustainable and inclusive multi-sectoral HIV response.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

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How Mongolia Can Expedite It’s Just Transition Plans to Include Its Nomads

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Youth

Gereltuya Bayanmukh speaks about her motivations to become involved in climate activism. Credit: Leo Galduh/IPS

Gereltuya Bayanmukh speaks about her motivations to become involved in climate activism. Credit: Leo Galduh/IPS

ULAANBAATAR, Jul 9 2025 (IPS) – Youth activist Gereltuya Bayanmukh still reflects on the events in her formative years that inspired her to become a climate activist. When she was a child, she would visit her grandparents in a village 20 km to the south of the border between Russia and Mongolia.

She was happy to see each of the nomadic people in their traditional gers power up their settlements using solar power.

“I remember seeing my neighbors own a solar panel and a battery to accumulate power. They were turning on lights and watching TV using solar power. Nowadays, they even have fridges,” she says.

She thought the herders made a conscious choice about their lifestyles and understood the need of the hour in the face of the looming climate crisis. That is to say, switch to renewable energy and power a safer future.

“This was the reason I became a climate activist,” she says.

No matter how unwitting her notion about her community achieving self-sufficiency with renewable energy was, the findings about what entailed this system revealed something else.

“I later learned that the solar panels were partially subsidized by the government as a part of the nationwide government to equip 100,000 nomadic households with solar energy,” she says.

What she perceived turned out to be a nationwide renewable energy scheme by the Mongolian government for the nomadic herders.

The scheme, called the National 100,000 Solar Ger [Yurt] Electricity Program, introduced in 2000, provided herders with portable photovoltaic solar home systems that complement their traditional nomadic lifestyle.

At least 30 percent of Mongolia’s population comprises nomadic herders. Before 2000, when the scheme came into effect, herders had limited or no access to modern electricity. By 2005, the government managed to equip over 30,000 herder families through funds from several donor nations.

However, the full-scale electrification effort for herders was beginning to stagnate. The 2006 midterm custom audit performance report by the Standing Committee on Environment, Food and Agriculture of the Parliament carried sobering revelations.

The scheme in its initial phase was poorly managed: there was no control over the distribution process, with some units delivered to local areas landing in the hands of non-residents violating the contract, failure to deliver the targeted number of generators, misappropriation of the program funds, and inability to repay the loans within the contractual period.

However, in the third phase–2006-2012–the program was able to expand its implementation with the support of several international donors, including the World Bank.

“At first, I thought how great that we started out with the renewable energy transition, giving access to renewable energy at a lower price. And it was even in 1999. That was when I was just four years old. I believe we were on our way to building a future like this. Like we visualized here. The future of green nomadism. However, my optimism faded when I read the midterm audit report and discovered that the program had been (just as) poorly managed as the first part. It was only with the assistance of the international partners that the program finished well,” says Gereltuya.

Gereltuya is the co-founder and board director of her NGO, Green Dot Climate, which focuses on empowering youth as climate activists and raising awareness and practical skills for climate action.

One of the mottoes of her NGO is to change the youth’s and Mongolian people’s attitudes and practices around climate change issues as well as solutions.

In the past year, the NGO has been successful in reaching over half a million Mongolians, including nomads, helping them become more environmentally conscious and empowering the youth to be climate activists—makers and doers themselves.

“In the past year, we have reached over half a million Mongolians. Our Green Dot youth community has logged more than 100,000 individual climate actions, saving over 700,000 kg of CO₂, 25 liters of water, and 80,000 kilowatt-hours of energy. Next, we will aim for a million collective actions, a stronger community and a minimum of 50 collaborative climate projects in Mongolia,” Gereltuya said during her delegate speech at the One Young World Summit, a global event that brings in young leaders from around the world to discuss global issues, in 2023.

The state of Mongolia’s nomads in the current energy system

Mongolia as a country heavily relies on coal for energy production, which contributes to 90 percent of its energy production. Coming to just transition, the government aims for a 30 percent renewable energy share by 2030 of its installed capacity, as enshrined in the State Policy on Energy 2015-2030. Mongolia is also committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 22.7 percent by 2030 while the energy sector accounts for 44.78 percent of the total emissions as of 2020 according to Mongolia’s Second Biennial Update Report.

Gereltuya’s NGO, Green Dot Climate, has been mapping Mongolia’s energy systems for the past few years now. As of 2024, Mongolia’s electricity sector relies on CHP [combined heat and power] plants and imports from Russia and China to meet its electricity demands.

Only 7 percent of its total installed energy comes from renewable sources, with the Central Energy System accounting for over 80 percent of the total electricity demand. “We found that about 200,000 households remain unaccounted for in the centralized energy grid calculations. These are likely the same nomadic families or their later generations who likely adopted their first solar systems at least two decades ago,” she explains.

Gereltuya says that her organisation meticulously compared the recent household data cited by the Energy Regulatory Commission of Mongolia to that of the total  number of households as per the Mongolian Statistical Information Service to find the numbers that went missing

Mongolia’s backslide into fossil-fuel economy

Although Mongolia has promised to increase its renewable energy share to 30 percent by 2030, it is still far behind in the race to achieve its target.

In the 2020 Nationally Determined Contribution [NDC] submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [UNFCCC], Mongolia set its mitigation target to “a 22.7% reduction in total national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030,” which can increase to a 27.2 percent reduction if conditional mitigation measures such as the carbon capture and storage and waste-to-energy technology are implemented. Further, if “actions and measures to remove GHG emissions by forest are determined”, the total mitigation target would rise to 44.9 percent by 2030.

“Instead of focusing on decarbonizing its coal-based economy, Mongolia shifted to focus on carbon-sink and sequestration processes to reduce its emissions. This suggests that despite our many promises, policies and past efforts to mainstream renewables, we may still end up with business as usual. A case of bad governance, stagnation and vicious cycles,” she says.

Recommendations for Mongolia’s energy sector

Gereltuya’s NGO has been actively engaged in the survey ‘Earth Month 2025’ that is aimed at collecting specific recommendations from the youth voices in the country for the NDC 3.0 that the government is expected to submit in COP30. She shares a few recommendations that she believes can help improve the country’s energy systems.

On the demand side, households not connected to the grid should update and improve their solar home systems, especially now that the solutions are much cheaper and more efficient.

According to the 2024 World Bank ‘Mongolia Country Climate and Development Report,’ the average residential tariff for electricity in Mongolia was estimated to be 40 percent below cost recovery, and subsidies were worth 3.5 percent of GDP in 2022. The lack of cost recovery created hurdles in efforts to enhance energy efficiency and investment in renewable energy. In the context, those connected to the grid should pay more for their energy use to reflect the real cost of energy production and support renewable energy feed-in tariffs. There should be responsible voting of citizens demanding better policies and implementations and not trading in policies for short-term gains.

On the supply side, there is a need to stop new fossil fuel projects immediately: there are at least six such projects, including one international project under Mongolia’s current Energy Revival Policy, underway.

Secondly, Mongolia’s electricity infrastructure needs significant improvement. As the UNDP recently highlighted, Mongolia’s infrastructure is aging, inefficient and heavily subsidized.

Thirdly, fully utilize installed energy capacity, which is at only 30 percent, largely owing to the infrastructure inefficiency.

Fourth is to increase the overall renewable energy capacity five times to meet demand, which means 15 times the energy made in full demand. And phase out coal-based power, replacing it with fully renewable energy.

IPS UN Bureau Report

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Bangladesh’s Democratic Promise Hangs in the Balance

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Opinion

Credit: Abdul Goni/Reuters via Gallo Images

MONTEVIDEO, Uruguay, Jul 7 2025 (IPS) – When Bangladesh’s streets erupted in protest in mid-2024, few could have predicted how swiftly Sheikh Hasina’s regime would crumble. The ousting of the prime minister last August, after years of mounting authoritarianism and growing discontent, was heralded as a historic opportunity for democratic renewal. Almost a year on, the question remains whether Bangladesh is genuinely evolving towards democracy, or if one form of repression is replacing another.

The interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, confronts enormous challenges in delivering meaningful change. While it has taken significant steps – releasing political prisoners, initiating constitutional reforms, signing international human rights treaties and pursuing accountability for past violations – persistent abuses, political exclusion and economic instability continue to cast long shadows over the transition. The coming months will prove decisive in determining whether Bangladesh can truly break from its authoritarian past.

From electoral fraud to revolution

The roots of Bangladesh’s current upheaval trace back to the deeply flawed general election of 7 January 2024. The vote, which saw Hasina’s Awami League (AL) secure a fourth consecutive term, was widely dismissed as a foregone conclusion. The main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party boycotted the election in protest at the government’s refusal to reinstate a neutral caretaker system.

The government unleashed an intense crackdown ahead of the vote. It imprisoned thousands of opposition activists and weaponised the criminal justice system to silence dissent, leading to deaths in police custody and enforced disappearances. This repression extended to civil society, with human rights activists and journalists facing harassment, arbitrary detention and violence. The government sponsored fake opposition candidates to create an illusion of competition, resulting in plummeting voter turnout and a crisis of legitimacy.

When opposition rallies occurred, they were met with overwhelming force. On 28 October 2023, police responded to a major opposition protest in Dhaka with rubber bullets, teargas and stun grenades, resulting in at least 16 deaths, with thousands injured and detained.

The situation deteriorated further after the election. In June 2024, the reinstatement of a controversial quota system for public sector jobs triggered mass student-led protests that would ultimately topple Hasina’s government. These protests rapidly evolved into a broader revolt against entrenched corruption, economic inequality and political impunity.

The government’s response was systematically brutal. According to a United Nations fact-finding report, between July and August security forces killed as many as 1,400 people, including many children, often shooting protesters at point-blank range. They denied the injured medical care and intimidated hospital staff. The scale of violence eventually led the military to refuse further involvement, forcing Hasina to resign and flee Bangladesh.

Reform efforts amid political discord

The interim government identified three core priorities: institutional reforms, trials of perpetrators of political violence and elections. Its initial months brought significant progress. The government released detained protesters and human rights defenders, signed the International Convention for the Protection of All Persons from Enforced Disappearances and established a commission of inquiry into enforced disappearances.

This commission documented around 1,700 complaints and found evidence of systematic use of enforced disappearances to target political opponents and activists, with direct complicity by Hasina and senior officials. In October, the Bangladesh International Crimes Tribunal issued arrest warrants for Hasina and 44 others for massacres during the 2024 protests, although the tribunal has a troubled history and retains the death penalty, contrary to international norms.

The Constitution Reform Commission has proposed expanding fundamental rights, with a bicameral parliament and term limits for top offices. However, the process has been undermined by the exclusion of major political players – most notably the AL – and minority groups.

Political tensions escalated as the interim government faced mounting pressure to set a general election date. Opposition parties accused it of deliberate stalling. The army chief publicly demanded elections by the end of 2025, while student groups sought postponement until reforms and justice were secured. After initial uncertainty, the government announced the election would occur in April 2026.

The most dramatic escalation came in May, when the interim government banned all AL activities under the Anti-Terrorism Act following renewed protests. The Election Commission subsequently suspended the AL’s registration, effectively barring it from future elections and fundamentally altering Bangladesh’s political landscape.

Economic challenges compound these political difficulties. Bangladesh remains fragile after devastating floods in 2024, while the banking sector faces stress from surging non-performing loans. Inflation continues outpacing wage growth and economic austerity measures agreed with the International Monetary Fund have sparked fresh protests.

Authoritarian patterns persist

Despite promises of change, old patterns of repression prove stubborn. Human rights groups document ongoing security forces abuses, including arbitrary arrests of opposition supporters and journalists, denial of due process and continued lack of accountability for past crimes. In the first two months of 2025 alone, over 1,000 police cases were filed against tens of thousands of people, mainly AL members or perceived supporters. A February crackdown on Hasina’s supporters led to over 1,300 arrests.

Press freedom remains severely threatened. In November, the interim government revoked the accreditation of 167 journalists. Around 140 journalists viewed as aligned with the previous regime have faced charges, with 25 accused of crimes against humanity, forcing many into hiding. Attacks on media outlets continue, including vandalism of newspaper offices.

The draft Cyber Protection Ordinance, intended to replace the repressive Cyber Security Act, has drawn criticism for retaining vague provisions criminalising defamation and ‘hurting religious sentiments’ while granting authorities sweeping powers for warrantless searches. Rights groups warn this law could stifle dissent in the run-up to elections.

Uncertain path forward

Bangladesh’s journey demonstrates that democratic transitions are inherently difficult, nonlinear and deeply contested processes. Democracy isn’t a guaranteed outcome, but the chances improve when political leaders are genuinely committed to reform and inclusive dialogue, and political players, civil society and the public practise sustained vigilance.

While the interim government has achieved steps unthinkable under the previous regime, the persistence of arbitrary arrests, attacks on journalists and the exclusion of key political players suggests authoritarianism’s shadow still looms large.

The upcoming general election will provide a crucial test of whether Bangladesh can finally turn the page on authoritarianism. The answer lies in whether Bangladeshis across government, civil society and beyond are able to build something genuinely new. The stakes are high in a country where many have already sacrificed much for the promise of democratic freedom.

Inés M. Pousadela is CIVICUS Senior Research Specialist, co-director and writer for CIVICUS Lens and co-author of the State of Civil Society Report.

For interviews or more information, please contact research@civicus.org

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Multi-Year Drought Gives Birth to Extremist Violence, Girls Most Vulnerable

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Combating Desertification and Drought

In Nairobi’s Kibera, the largest urban informal settlement in Africa, girls and women wait their turn for the scarce water supply. Credit: Manipadma Jena/IPS

SEVILLE & BHUBANESWAR, Jul 2 2025 (IPS) – While droughts creep in stealthily, their impacts are often more devastating and far-reaching than any other disaster. Inter-community conflict, extremist violence, and violence and injustice against vulnerable girls and women happen at the intersection of climate-induced droughts and drought-impoverished communities.

Five consecutive years of failed rain in Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya brought the worst drought in seventy years to the Horn of Africa by 2023. In Somalia, the government estimated 43,000 excess deaths in 2022 alone due to drought-linked hunger.

As of early current year, 4.4 million people, or a quarter of Somalia’s population, face crisis-level food insecurity, including 784,000 people expected to reach emergency levels. Together, over 90 million people across Eastern and Southern Africa face acute hunger. Some areas have been enduring their worst ever recorded drought, finds a United Nations-backed study, Drought Hotspots Around the World 2023-2025 released today at the 4th International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD4).

UNCCD Executive Secretary Ibrahim Thiaw said "Drought is here, escalating, and demands urgent global cooperation" Photo courtesy: UNCCD

UNCCD Executive Secretary Ibrahim Thiaw noted that while drought is here and escalating, it demands urgent global cooperation. Photo courtesy: UNCCD

High tempera­tures and a lack of precipitation in 2023 and 2024 resulted in water supply shortages, low food supplies, and power rationing. In parts of Africa, tens of millions faced drought-induced food shortages, malnutrition, and displacement, finds the new 2025 drought analysis, Drought Hotspots Around the World 2023-2025, by the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and the U.S. National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC).

It not just comprehensively synthesizes impacts on humans but also on biodiversity and wildlife within the most acute drought hotspots in Africa (Somalia, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Botswana, and Namibia), the Mediterranean (Spain, Morocco, and Türkiye), Latin America (Panama and the Amazon Basin) and Southeast Asia.

Desperate to Cope but Pulled Into a Spiral of Violence and Conflict

“The coping mechanisms we saw during this drought grew increasingly desperate,” says lead author Paula Guastello, NDMC drought impacts researcher. “Girls pulled from school and forced into marriage, hospitals going dark, and families digging holes in dry riverbeds just to find contaminated water. These are signs of severe crisis.”

Over one million Somalis in 2022 were forced to move in search of food, water for families and cattle, and alternative livelihoods. Migration is a major coping mechanism mostly for subsistence farmers and pastoralists. However, mass migration strains resources in host areas, often leading to conflict. Of this large number of displaced Somalis, many crossed into territory held by Islamic extremists.

Drought in a Sub-Saharan district leads to 8.1 percent lower economic activity and 29.0 percent higher extremist violence, an earlier study found. Districts with more months of drought in a given year and more years in a row with drought experienced more severe violence.

Drought expert and editor of the UNCCD study Daniel Tsegai told IPS at the online pre-release press briefing from the Saville conference that drought can turn into an extremist violence multiplier in regions and among communities rendered vulnerable by multi-year drought.

Climate change-driven drought does not directly cause extremist conflict or civil wars; it overlaps and exacerbates existing social and economic tensions, contributing to the conditions that lead to conflict and potentially influencing the rise of extremist violence, added Tsegai.

Extracting water from a traditional well using a manual pulley system. Credit: Abdallah Khalili / UNCCD

Extracting water from a traditional well using a manual pulley system. Credit: Abdallah Khalili / UNCCD

Though the effects of climate change on conflict are indirect, they have been seen to be quite severe and far-reaching. An example is the 2006-2011 drought in Syria, seen as the worst in 900 years. It led to crop failures, livestock deaths and mass rural displacement into cities, creating social and political stress. Economic disparities and authoritarian repression gave rise to extremist groups that exploited individuals facing unbearable hardships.

The UN study cites entire school districts in Zimbabwe that saw mass dropouts due to hunger and school costs. Rural families were no longer able to afford uniforms and tuition, which cost USD 25. Some children left school to migrate with family and work.

Drought-related hunger impact on children

Hungry and clueless about their dark futures, children become prime targets for extremists’ recruitment.

A further example of exploitation of vulnerable communities by extremists is cited in the UNCCD drought study. The UN World Food Programme in May 2023 estimated that over 213,000 more Somalis were at “imminent risk” of dying of starvation. Little aid had reached Somalia, as multiple crises across the globe spread resources thin.

However, al-Shabab, an Islamic extremist group tied to al-Qaida, allegedly prevented aid from reaching the parts of Somalia under its control and refused to let people leave in search of food.

Violent clashes for scarce resources among nomadic herders in the Africa region during droughts are well documented. Between 2021 and January 2023 in eastern Africa alone, over 4.5 million livestock had died due to droughts, and 30 million additional animals were at risk. Facing starvation of both their families and their livestock, by February 2025, tens of thousands of pastoralists had moved with their livestock in search of food and water, potentially into violent confrontations with host regions.

Tsegai said, “Drought knows no geographical boundaries. Violence and conflict spill over into economically healthy communities this way.”

Earlier drought researchers have emphasized to policymakers that “building resilience to drought is a security imperative.”

Women and Girls Worst Victims of Drought Violence

“Today, around 85 percent of people affected by drought live in low- and middle-income countries, with women and girls being the hardest hit,” UNCCD Deputy Executive Secretary Andrea Meza said.

“Drought might not know boundaries, but it knows gender,” Tsegai said. Women and girls in low-income countries are the worst victims of drought-induced societal instability.

Traditional gender-based societal inequalities are what make women and girl children par­ticularly vulnerable.

During the 2023-2024 drought, forced child marriages in sub-Saharan Africa more than doubled in frequency in the four regions hit hardest by the drought. Young girls who married brought their family income in the form of a dowry that could be as high as 3,000 Ethiopian birr (USD 56). It lessened the financial burden on girls’ parental families.

Forced child marriages, however, bring substantial risks to the girls. A hospital clinic in Ethiopia (which, though, it has outlawed child marriage) specifically opened to help victims of sexual and physi­cal abuse that is common in such marriages.

Girls gener­ally leave school when they marry, further stifling their opportunities for financial independence.

Reports have found desperate women exchanging sex for food or water or money during acute water scarcities. Higher incidence of sexual violence happens when hydropower-dependent regions are confronted with 18 to 20 hours without electricity and women and girls are compelled to walk miles to fetch household water.

“Proactive drought management is a matter of climate justice,” UNCCD Meza said.

Drought Hotspots Need to Be Ready for This ‘New’ Normal

“Drought is no longer a distant threat,” said UNCCD Executive Secretary Ibrahim Thiaw, adding, “It is here, escalating, and demands urgent global cooperation. When energy, food, and water all go at once, societies start to unravel. That’s the new normal we need to be ready for.”

“This is a slow-moving global catastrophe, the worst I’ve ever seen. This report underscores the need for systematic monitoring of how drought affects lives, livelihoods, and the health of the ecosystems that we all depend on,” said Mark Svoboda, report co-author and NDMC Founding Director.

“The struggles experienced by Spain, Morocco and Türkiye to secure water, food, and energy under persistent drought offer a preview of water futures under unchecked global warming. No country, regardless of wealth or capacity, can afford to be complacent,” he added.

Global Drought Outlook 2025 estimates the economic impacts of an average drought today can be up to six times higher than in 2000, and costs are projected to rise by at least 35% by 2035.

“It is calculated that $1 of investment in drought prevention results in bringing back $7 into the GDP lost to droughts. Awareness of the economics of drought is important for policymaking,” Tsegai said.

The report released during the International Drought Resilience Alliance (IDRA) event at the Saville conference aims to get public policies and international cooperation frameworks to urgently prioritize drought resilience and bolster funding.

IPS UN Bureau Report