HIV/AIDS Funding Crisis Risks Reversing Decades of Global Progress

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Health

About 9.2 million people across the world living with HIV were not receiving treatment in 2024, according to the UNAIDS report. At the launch of the report was Rev. Mbulelo Dyasi, Executive Director of SANARELA. Winnie Byanyima, UNAIDS Executive Director, Aaron Motsoaledi, Minister of Health of South Africa. Juwan Betty Wani, Programme Coordinator, Adolescents Girls and young women Network South Sudan. Helen Rees, Executive Director, Wits RHI. Credit: UNAIDS

About 9.2 million people across the world living with HIV were not receiving treatment in 2024, according to the UNAIDS report. At the launch of the report was Rev. Mbulelo Dyasi, Executive Director of SANARELA. Winnie Byanyima, UNAIDS Executive Director, Aaron Motsoaledi, Minister of Health of South Africa. Juwan Betty Wani, Programme Coordinator, Adolescents Girls and young women Network South Sudan. Helen Rees, Executive Director, Wits RHI. Credit: UNAIDS

UNITED NATIONS, Jul 10 2025 (IPS) – UNAIDS called the funding crisis a ticking time bomb, saying the impact of the US cuts to the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) could result in 4 million unnecessary AIDS-related deaths by 2029.

A historic withdrawal of global HIV/AIDS funding threatens to derail decades of hard-won progress in the fight against AIDS, according to UNAIDS’ annual report, entitled Aids, Crisis and the Power to Transform. This funding shortage – caused by sudden and massive cuts from international donors – is already dismantling frontline services, disrupting lifesaving treatments for millions and endangering countless lives in the world’s most vulnerable communities.

“This is not just a funding gap—it’s a ticking time bomb,” said UNAIDS Executive Director Winnie Byanyima.

Despite major strides in 2024, including a decrease in new HIV infections by 40 percent and a decrease in AIDS-related deaths by 56% since 2010, the onset of restricted international assistance, which makes up 80 percent of prevention in low- and middle-income countries, could have disastrous effects. The report, mostly researched at the end of 2024, concluded that the end of AIDS as a public health threat by 2030 was in sight.

However, in early 2025 the United States government announced “shifting foreign assistance strategies,” causing them to withdraw aid from organizations like the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which had earlier promised 4.3 billion USD in 2025. PEPFAR is one of the primary HIV testing and treatment services in countries most affected. Such a drastic decision could have ripple effects, including pushing other major donor countries to revoke their aid. The report projected that if international funding permanently disappears, they expect an additional 6 million HIV infections and 4 million AIDS-related deaths by 2029.

At a Press Briefing, Assistant Secretary-General for UNAIDS Angeli Achrekar noted the importance of PEPFAR since its inception in 2003, calling it one of the most successful public health endeavors. She expressed hope that as the US lessens its support, other organizations and countries are able to take up the global promise of ending AIDS without eroding the gains already made.

Achrekar noted “acute shifts” in a weakening of commitment from countries less directly affected by HIV/AIDS since the US has pulled funding.

UNAIDS also reports a rising number of countries criminalizing populations most at risk of HIV – raising stigma and worsening gender-based violence and non-consensual sex, two of the highest HIV risk-enhancing behaviors. The report showed the primary groups who lacked care were child HIV infections and young women, which is likely related to government campaigns  “attacking HIV-related human rights, including for public health, with girls, women and people from key populations.”

These punitive laws include criminalization or prosecution based on general criminal laws of HIV exposure, criminalization of sex work, transgender people and same-sex sexual activity and possession of small amounts of drugs. These laws have been on the rise for the past few years, and in conjunction with limited funding, the results for HIV/AIDS-positive patients could be fatal.

Recently, scientific breakthroughs have been made regarding long-acting medicine to prevent HIV infection. Health workers have seen tremendous success, both with new technologies like annual injections and the potential for more growth in the form of monthly preventative tablets and in old prevention techniques like condom procurement and distribution and access to clean, safe needles for drug users. However, due to various global conflicts and wars, supply chains have been disrupted, often harming countries not in the thick of the altercation but reliant on products like PrEP, an HIV prevention medication.

Although many countries most afflicted with the AIDS crisis have stepped up, promising more national funding for the issue, and many community networks have doubled down on their efforts, the disruption of supply chains and the lack of international frontline health workers cannot be solved overnight. To entirely restructure how healthcare is provided takes time – something those with HIV do not always have.

Areas like sub-Saharan Africa, which in 2024 housed half of the 9.2 million people not receiving HIV treatment, have been particularly affected by the recent changes. The majority of child infections still occur there, and combinations of “debt distress, slow economic growth and underperforming tax systems” provide countries in sub-Saharan Africa with limited fiscal room to increase domestic funding for HIV.

Despite the loss of funding, significant progress has been made to protect essential HIV treatment gains. South Africa currently funds 77% of its AIDS response, and its 2025 budget review includes a 3.3% annual increase for HIV and tuberculosis programs over the next three years. As of December 2024, seven countries in sub-Saharan Africa have achieved the 95-95-95 targets established by UNAIDS: 95% of people living with HIV know their status, 95% of those are on treatment, and 95% of those on treatment are virally suppressed. UNAIDS emphasized the importance of this being scaled up to a global level.

Achrekar observed, referring to countries whose domestic funds towards AIDS have increased, that “prevention is the last thing that is prioritized, but we will never be able to turn off the tap of the new infections without focusing on prevention as well.”

She reiterated the importance of countries most affected by the HIV/AIDS crisis establishing self-sustaining health practices to ensure longevity in both prevention and treatment.

Achrekar praised the global South for their work in taking ownership of treatment while still calling upon the rest of the world to join.

She said, “The HIV response was forged in crisis, and it was built to be resilient. We need, and are calling for, global solidarity once again, to rebuild a nationally owned and led, sustainable and inclusive multi-sectoral HIV response.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

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For the Aged, Their Sunset Years Will Be Bedeviled by Lethal Heatwaves

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Climate Change

Facing frequent climate hazards, resultantly offsprings having migrated out, this South Sikkimese elder in India battles depression, anxiety and early onset of dementia. Credit: Manipadma Jena/IPS

Facing frequent climate hazards, resultantly offsprings having migrated out, this South Sikkimese elder in India battles depression, anxiety and early onset of dementia.
Credit: Manipadma Jena/IPS

NAIROBI & BHUBANESWAR, Jul 10 2025 (IPS) – The global population is aging at a time when heat exposure is rising due to climate change. Extreme heat can be deadly for older populations given their reduced ability to regulate body temperature. Already there has been an 85 percent increase since 1990 in annual heat-related deaths of adults aged above 65, driven by both warming trends and fast-growing older populations.

If this were not heartbreakingly disastrous enough, heat-related deaths in older populations are projected to increase by 370 percent annually if global temperatures rise by 2˚ Centigrade mid-century. The world is currently on track to reach 2.7°C by the end of the century, up from 1.14°C above pre-industrial levels in 2013-2022.

With 2024 the hottest year ever recorded and the past 11 years declared the 11 warmest on record since records began in 1880, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report warning of an 80% chance that 2025-2029 will be warmer than 2024, predicting severe climate impacts, and nearing the 1.5°C warming threshold is alarming if not surprising.

As extreme heat grips many countries and becomes ‘the new normal,’ the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) warns of heightened health risks for older persons in the Frontiers 2025 Report published today.

Older persons, especially those with chronic illnesses like diabetes, hypertension and heart ailments, limited mobility, or age-related frailty, are particularly vulnerable to severe health issues, depending on the intensity, duration, and frequency of heat spells. These could range from respiratory and cardiovascular to metabolic diseases, as well as increased mortality.

Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP said solutions exist that can help protect communities and ecosystem. Courtesy: UNEP

Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP said solutions exist that can help protect communities and ecosystems. Courtesy: UNEP

“Heat waves are among the most frequent and deadly impacts of climate change, along with floods and shrinking ice cover,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. “We must be prepared for the risks these impacts pose, especially for society’s most vulnerable, including older persons.”

The 7th edition of the Frontiers Report, The Weight of Time – Facing a new age of challenges for people and Ecosystems, is part of UNEP’s Foresight Trajectory initiative and highlights emerging environmental issues as well as doable solutions. The first edition, in 2016, warned of the growing risk of zoonotic diseases, four years before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Those worst effected by rising temperatures: where and why

“The (third) issue is the risk to aging populations from environmental degradation. It is estimated that the global share of people over 65 years old will rise from 10 percent in 2024 to 16 percent by 2050. Most of these people will live in cities where they will be exposed to extreme heat and air pollution, and experience more frequent disasters. Older people are already more at risk. Effective adaptation strategies will need to evolve to protect these older populations,” says UNEP’s Executive Director, Inger Andersen.

Projections indicate that heatwaves will become more intense, frequent and persistent in nearly all regions. As heatwaves intensify, scientists warn of the amplified danger when extreme heat and humidity combine. Higher humidity tends to limit the human body’s ability to cool itself through the evaporation of sweat.

When temperatures rise by 1o C, estimates peg 275 million people will be exposed to humid heatwaves. The impact will shoot up to 789 million with 2o C, and with an apocalyptic 3oC rise, 1220 million people will be battling absolutely lethal humid heatwaves.

Already experiencing humid heatwaves are low-lying tropical regions of India and Pakistan, the Persian Gulf, the Arabian Gulf, the Red Sea, and eastern China.

Urban centers usually experience higher temperatures than surrounding rural areas because buildings, pavement, and other artificial surfaces trap, retain and re-radiate heat. This urban heat island effect and heat waves interact synergistically, exposing urban residents to greater heat and amplifying health risks.

Developing and low-income countries that are urbanizing at a fast pace are more at risk.

Rural-to-urban migrants often live in tin- or asbestos-roofed one-roomed houses, crowded and ill-ventilated, in informal settlements that spring up in low-value, hazardous land parcels without water supply, sanitation or electricity facilities. In recent hotter years, surveys have found the temperature inside these housing units is even higher than the ambient high heat outside on heat-wave days. Often poorer parts of cities have less green and heat up faster. Worse, night temperatures are not cooling down in cities owing to the heat-island effect.

Older adults who are uprooted from their traditional communities into cities, are socially isolated, economically disadvantaged, have cognitive, physical, or sensory impairments, and live in substandard housing with inadequate cooling systems or even basic water, are especially ill-equipped to withstand or adapt to heat extremes, say other studies.

Are only the elderly in low- and middle-income countries at heat risk? Latest reports suggest even the developed countries cannot protect their aged from growing climate heat.

A first rapid study released earlier in July by scientists at the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine focused on ten days of heatwaves in 12 European cities from June 23 to July 2, 2025. The researchers estimated that climate change nearly tripled the number of heat-related deaths, with fossil fuel use having increased heatwave temperatures up to 2°C – 4°C across the cities.

Of the 2,305 estimated heat deaths in those ten days, people aged 65-plus made up 88 percent of the deaths, highlighting how those with underlying health conditions are most at risk of premature death in heatwaves.

“It is society’s most vulnerable … who suffer most in the midst of record temperatures. Europe’s dependence and soft hand on oil and gas corporations who are fueling this extreme heat is giving a death blow to our parents and grandparents,” said Ian Duff, Head of Greenpeace International’s ‘Stop Drilling Start Paying’ campaign, called on polluters to pay up.

It is not heat alone that the aged are vulnerable to

Exposure to air pollutants such as fine particulate matter, ground-level ozone, nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide often triggers the onset and progression of a variety of respiratory, cardiovascular, neurological and cognitive illnesses and related deaths in older people, according to the Frontier report.

Nearly half of the 1.24 million deaths attributable to air pollution in India in 2017 were those aged 70 years or older.

Accelerating climate change that brings extreme heat, worsening air pollution, drought and dust storms, floods and melting glaciers is, in multiple ways, directly and indirectly, not only responsible for physical ailments but also for the development of dementia, late-life depression, anxiety and mental health in elders.

Building climate resilience for aging population: the time is now

“As this year’s Frontiers Report shows, solutions exist that can help protect communities and restore ecosystems long thought to have been lost,” Inger Andersen urges governments to implement adaptation strategies.

On its part, the report recommends transforming cities into age-friendly, pollution-free, resilient, accessible spaces with expansive vegetation through better urban planning.

Community-based disaster risk management and access to climate information are key approaches to help aging people adapt successfully to climate change. Investing in weather stations to monitor extreme heat is critical to protect lives.

The digital divide among older populations in cities needs to be addressed. Digital ignorance may affect their capacity to live in smart cities and be adequately informed of possible extreme events that may affect their survival. Otherwise too, day-to-day living—banking, medicine purchases, and shopping for essentials—are all going digital and, once mastered, convenient to the aged.

IPS UN Bureau Report

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How Mongolia Can Expedite It’s Just Transition Plans to Include Its Nomads

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Youth

Gereltuya Bayanmukh speaks about her motivations to become involved in climate activism. Credit: Leo Galduh/IPS

Gereltuya Bayanmukh speaks about her motivations to become involved in climate activism. Credit: Leo Galduh/IPS

ULAANBAATAR, Jul 9 2025 (IPS) – Youth activist Gereltuya Bayanmukh still reflects on the events in her formative years that inspired her to become a climate activist. When she was a child, she would visit her grandparents in a village 20 km to the south of the border between Russia and Mongolia.

She was happy to see each of the nomadic people in their traditional gers power up their settlements using solar power.

“I remember seeing my neighbors own a solar panel and a battery to accumulate power. They were turning on lights and watching TV using solar power. Nowadays, they even have fridges,” she says.

She thought the herders made a conscious choice about their lifestyles and understood the need of the hour in the face of the looming climate crisis. That is to say, switch to renewable energy and power a safer future.

“This was the reason I became a climate activist,” she says.

No matter how unwitting her notion about her community achieving self-sufficiency with renewable energy was, the findings about what entailed this system revealed something else.

“I later learned that the solar panels were partially subsidized by the government as a part of the nationwide government to equip 100,000 nomadic households with solar energy,” she says.

What she perceived turned out to be a nationwide renewable energy scheme by the Mongolian government for the nomadic herders.

The scheme, called the National 100,000 Solar Ger [Yurt] Electricity Program, introduced in 2000, provided herders with portable photovoltaic solar home systems that complement their traditional nomadic lifestyle.

At least 30 percent of Mongolia’s population comprises nomadic herders. Before 2000, when the scheme came into effect, herders had limited or no access to modern electricity. By 2005, the government managed to equip over 30,000 herder families through funds from several donor nations.

However, the full-scale electrification effort for herders was beginning to stagnate. The 2006 midterm custom audit performance report by the Standing Committee on Environment, Food and Agriculture of the Parliament carried sobering revelations.

The scheme in its initial phase was poorly managed: there was no control over the distribution process, with some units delivered to local areas landing in the hands of non-residents violating the contract, failure to deliver the targeted number of generators, misappropriation of the program funds, and inability to repay the loans within the contractual period.

However, in the third phase–2006-2012–the program was able to expand its implementation with the support of several international donors, including the World Bank.

“At first, I thought how great that we started out with the renewable energy transition, giving access to renewable energy at a lower price. And it was even in 1999. That was when I was just four years old. I believe we were on our way to building a future like this. Like we visualized here. The future of green nomadism. However, my optimism faded when I read the midterm audit report and discovered that the program had been (just as) poorly managed as the first part. It was only with the assistance of the international partners that the program finished well,” says Gereltuya.

Gereltuya is the co-founder and board director of her NGO, Green Dot Climate, which focuses on empowering youth as climate activists and raising awareness and practical skills for climate action.

One of the mottoes of her NGO is to change the youth’s and Mongolian people’s attitudes and practices around climate change issues as well as solutions.

In the past year, the NGO has been successful in reaching over half a million Mongolians, including nomads, helping them become more environmentally conscious and empowering the youth to be climate activists—makers and doers themselves.

“In the past year, we have reached over half a million Mongolians. Our Green Dot youth community has logged more than 100,000 individual climate actions, saving over 700,000 kg of CO₂, 25 liters of water, and 80,000 kilowatt-hours of energy. Next, we will aim for a million collective actions, a stronger community and a minimum of 50 collaborative climate projects in Mongolia,” Gereltuya said during her delegate speech at the One Young World Summit, a global event that brings in young leaders from around the world to discuss global issues, in 2023.

The state of Mongolia’s nomads in the current energy system

Mongolia as a country heavily relies on coal for energy production, which contributes to 90 percent of its energy production. Coming to just transition, the government aims for a 30 percent renewable energy share by 2030 of its installed capacity, as enshrined in the State Policy on Energy 2015-2030. Mongolia is also committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 22.7 percent by 2030 while the energy sector accounts for 44.78 percent of the total emissions as of 2020 according to Mongolia’s Second Biennial Update Report.

Gereltuya’s NGO, Green Dot Climate, has been mapping Mongolia’s energy systems for the past few years now. As of 2024, Mongolia’s electricity sector relies on CHP [combined heat and power] plants and imports from Russia and China to meet its electricity demands.

Only 7 percent of its total installed energy comes from renewable sources, with the Central Energy System accounting for over 80 percent of the total electricity demand. “We found that about 200,000 households remain unaccounted for in the centralized energy grid calculations. These are likely the same nomadic families or their later generations who likely adopted their first solar systems at least two decades ago,” she explains.

Gereltuya says that her organisation meticulously compared the recent household data cited by the Energy Regulatory Commission of Mongolia to that of the total  number of households as per the Mongolian Statistical Information Service to find the numbers that went missing

Mongolia’s backslide into fossil-fuel economy

Although Mongolia has promised to increase its renewable energy share to 30 percent by 2030, it is still far behind in the race to achieve its target.

In the 2020 Nationally Determined Contribution [NDC] submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [UNFCCC], Mongolia set its mitigation target to “a 22.7% reduction in total national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030,” which can increase to a 27.2 percent reduction if conditional mitigation measures such as the carbon capture and storage and waste-to-energy technology are implemented. Further, if “actions and measures to remove GHG emissions by forest are determined”, the total mitigation target would rise to 44.9 percent by 2030.

“Instead of focusing on decarbonizing its coal-based economy, Mongolia shifted to focus on carbon-sink and sequestration processes to reduce its emissions. This suggests that despite our many promises, policies and past efforts to mainstream renewables, we may still end up with business as usual. A case of bad governance, stagnation and vicious cycles,” she says.

Recommendations for Mongolia’s energy sector

Gereltuya’s NGO has been actively engaged in the survey ‘Earth Month 2025’ that is aimed at collecting specific recommendations from the youth voices in the country for the NDC 3.0 that the government is expected to submit in COP30. She shares a few recommendations that she believes can help improve the country’s energy systems.

On the demand side, households not connected to the grid should update and improve their solar home systems, especially now that the solutions are much cheaper and more efficient.

According to the 2024 World Bank ‘Mongolia Country Climate and Development Report,’ the average residential tariff for electricity in Mongolia was estimated to be 40 percent below cost recovery, and subsidies were worth 3.5 percent of GDP in 2022. The lack of cost recovery created hurdles in efforts to enhance energy efficiency and investment in renewable energy. In the context, those connected to the grid should pay more for their energy use to reflect the real cost of energy production and support renewable energy feed-in tariffs. There should be responsible voting of citizens demanding better policies and implementations and not trading in policies for short-term gains.

On the supply side, there is a need to stop new fossil fuel projects immediately: there are at least six such projects, including one international project under Mongolia’s current Energy Revival Policy, underway.

Secondly, Mongolia’s electricity infrastructure needs significant improvement. As the UNDP recently highlighted, Mongolia’s infrastructure is aging, inefficient and heavily subsidized.

Thirdly, fully utilize installed energy capacity, which is at only 30 percent, largely owing to the infrastructure inefficiency.

Fourth is to increase the overall renewable energy capacity five times to meet demand, which means 15 times the energy made in full demand. And phase out coal-based power, replacing it with fully renewable energy.

IPS UN Bureau Report

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Bangladesh’s Democratic Promise Hangs in the Balance

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Opinion

Credit: Abdul Goni/Reuters via Gallo Images

MONTEVIDEO, Uruguay, Jul 7 2025 (IPS) – When Bangladesh’s streets erupted in protest in mid-2024, few could have predicted how swiftly Sheikh Hasina’s regime would crumble. The ousting of the prime minister last August, after years of mounting authoritarianism and growing discontent, was heralded as a historic opportunity for democratic renewal. Almost a year on, the question remains whether Bangladesh is genuinely evolving towards democracy, or if one form of repression is replacing another.

The interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, confronts enormous challenges in delivering meaningful change. While it has taken significant steps – releasing political prisoners, initiating constitutional reforms, signing international human rights treaties and pursuing accountability for past violations – persistent abuses, political exclusion and economic instability continue to cast long shadows over the transition. The coming months will prove decisive in determining whether Bangladesh can truly break from its authoritarian past.

From electoral fraud to revolution

The roots of Bangladesh’s current upheaval trace back to the deeply flawed general election of 7 January 2024. The vote, which saw Hasina’s Awami League (AL) secure a fourth consecutive term, was widely dismissed as a foregone conclusion. The main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party boycotted the election in protest at the government’s refusal to reinstate a neutral caretaker system.

The government unleashed an intense crackdown ahead of the vote. It imprisoned thousands of opposition activists and weaponised the criminal justice system to silence dissent, leading to deaths in police custody and enforced disappearances. This repression extended to civil society, with human rights activists and journalists facing harassment, arbitrary detention and violence. The government sponsored fake opposition candidates to create an illusion of competition, resulting in plummeting voter turnout and a crisis of legitimacy.

When opposition rallies occurred, they were met with overwhelming force. On 28 October 2023, police responded to a major opposition protest in Dhaka with rubber bullets, teargas and stun grenades, resulting in at least 16 deaths, with thousands injured and detained.

The situation deteriorated further after the election. In June 2024, the reinstatement of a controversial quota system for public sector jobs triggered mass student-led protests that would ultimately topple Hasina’s government. These protests rapidly evolved into a broader revolt against entrenched corruption, economic inequality and political impunity.

The government’s response was systematically brutal. According to a United Nations fact-finding report, between July and August security forces killed as many as 1,400 people, including many children, often shooting protesters at point-blank range. They denied the injured medical care and intimidated hospital staff. The scale of violence eventually led the military to refuse further involvement, forcing Hasina to resign and flee Bangladesh.

Reform efforts amid political discord

The interim government identified three core priorities: institutional reforms, trials of perpetrators of political violence and elections. Its initial months brought significant progress. The government released detained protesters and human rights defenders, signed the International Convention for the Protection of All Persons from Enforced Disappearances and established a commission of inquiry into enforced disappearances.

This commission documented around 1,700 complaints and found evidence of systematic use of enforced disappearances to target political opponents and activists, with direct complicity by Hasina and senior officials. In October, the Bangladesh International Crimes Tribunal issued arrest warrants for Hasina and 44 others for massacres during the 2024 protests, although the tribunal has a troubled history and retains the death penalty, contrary to international norms.

The Constitution Reform Commission has proposed expanding fundamental rights, with a bicameral parliament and term limits for top offices. However, the process has been undermined by the exclusion of major political players – most notably the AL – and minority groups.

Political tensions escalated as the interim government faced mounting pressure to set a general election date. Opposition parties accused it of deliberate stalling. The army chief publicly demanded elections by the end of 2025, while student groups sought postponement until reforms and justice were secured. After initial uncertainty, the government announced the election would occur in April 2026.

The most dramatic escalation came in May, when the interim government banned all AL activities under the Anti-Terrorism Act following renewed protests. The Election Commission subsequently suspended the AL’s registration, effectively barring it from future elections and fundamentally altering Bangladesh’s political landscape.

Economic challenges compound these political difficulties. Bangladesh remains fragile after devastating floods in 2024, while the banking sector faces stress from surging non-performing loans. Inflation continues outpacing wage growth and economic austerity measures agreed with the International Monetary Fund have sparked fresh protests.

Authoritarian patterns persist

Despite promises of change, old patterns of repression prove stubborn. Human rights groups document ongoing security forces abuses, including arbitrary arrests of opposition supporters and journalists, denial of due process and continued lack of accountability for past crimes. In the first two months of 2025 alone, over 1,000 police cases were filed against tens of thousands of people, mainly AL members or perceived supporters. A February crackdown on Hasina’s supporters led to over 1,300 arrests.

Press freedom remains severely threatened. In November, the interim government revoked the accreditation of 167 journalists. Around 140 journalists viewed as aligned with the previous regime have faced charges, with 25 accused of crimes against humanity, forcing many into hiding. Attacks on media outlets continue, including vandalism of newspaper offices.

The draft Cyber Protection Ordinance, intended to replace the repressive Cyber Security Act, has drawn criticism for retaining vague provisions criminalising defamation and ‘hurting religious sentiments’ while granting authorities sweeping powers for warrantless searches. Rights groups warn this law could stifle dissent in the run-up to elections.

Uncertain path forward

Bangladesh’s journey demonstrates that democratic transitions are inherently difficult, nonlinear and deeply contested processes. Democracy isn’t a guaranteed outcome, but the chances improve when political leaders are genuinely committed to reform and inclusive dialogue, and political players, civil society and the public practise sustained vigilance.

While the interim government has achieved steps unthinkable under the previous regime, the persistence of arbitrary arrests, attacks on journalists and the exclusion of key political players suggests authoritarianism’s shadow still looms large.

The upcoming general election will provide a crucial test of whether Bangladesh can finally turn the page on authoritarianism. The answer lies in whether Bangladeshis across government, civil society and beyond are able to build something genuinely new. The stakes are high in a country where many have already sacrificed much for the promise of democratic freedom.

Inés M. Pousadela is CIVICUS Senior Research Specialist, co-director and writer for CIVICUS Lens and co-author of the State of Civil Society Report.

For interviews or more information, please contact research@civicus.org

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Democracy under Attack: Why the World Needs a New UN Special Rapporteur

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Opinion

Cover photo by OHCHR

BRUSSELS, Belgium / MONTEVIDEO, Uruguay, Jul 2 2025 (IPS) – When tanks rolled through Myanmar’s streets in 2021, civil society groups worldwide sounded the alarm. When Viktor Orbán systematically dismantled Hungary’s free press, democracy activists demanded international action. And as authoritarianism returns to Tanzania ahead of elections, it’s once again civil society calling for democratic freedoms to be respected.

Around the world, authoritarian populists have learned to maintain democratic language and rituals while gutting democracy’s substance. They hold fraudulent elections with no real opposition and crack down on civil society when it tries to uphold democratic freedoms. As a result, more than 70 per cent of the world’s population lives in countries where civic space is routinely repressed.

In response, over 175 civil society organisations and 500 activists have united behind a demand to help improve respect for democratic freedoms, calling on the UN to establish a Special Rapporteur on Democracy.

The proposal isn’t coming from diplomatic corridors or academia; it’s a grassroots call from the frontlines of a global democratic struggle. Democracy defenders who face harassment, imprisonment and violence have identified a gap in international oversight that emboldens authoritarians and lets down those fighting for democratic rights when they most need support.

Critical blind spots

While the UN investigates everything from torture to toxic waste through specialised rapporteurs, democracy – supposedly a core UN principle – receives no systematic international oversight. This is a blind spot civil society wants to change.

Today’s threats to democracy are often more subtle than outright coups and blatant election rigging. Repressive leaders have mastered the art of legal authoritarianism, using constitutional amendments to extend term limits, judicial re-engineering to capture courts and media laws to silence critics, all while maintaining a facade of democratic governance.

In countries from Belarus to Venezuela, elections have been turned into elaborate ceremonies emptied of competition. Even established democracies face growing challenges, with foreign influence and disinformation campaigns documented across dozens of recent elections, often amplified by AI that creates deepfakes faster than fact-checkers can debunk them.

The rise of right-wing populism across Europe and in the USA shows how easily democratic processes can elevate leaders who systematically undermine democratic institutions from within, weaponising the law to concentrate executive authority, criminalise opposition and restrict civic space.

These evolving threats expose fundamental gaps in how the international community monitors and responds to democratic regression. The proposed UN Special Rapporteur on Democracy would help fill this gap: unlike current mandates that focus on specific rights, this role would examine how democratic systems function as a whole.

Existing UN Special Rapporteurs have recognised the urgent need for dedicated democracy oversight, with the Special Rapporteurs on freedom of peaceful assembly and of association, freedom of opinion and expression, and the independence of judges and lawyers highlighting how democratic backsliding undermines the rights they’re mandated to protect.

A democracy rapporteur could investigate the full spectrum of threats that escape international attention: how electoral systems become compromised through legal manipulation, how parliamentary oversight gets systematically weakened while maintaining constitutional appearances, how judicial independence is eroded through seemingly legitimate reforms, and how meaningful participation beyond elections gets stifled through bureaucratic restrictions.

Crucially, the mandate could document not just obvious authoritarian crackdowns but the subtler forms of democratic erosion that often escape international notice until democratic institutions are compromised, offering early warnings about gradual processes that transform vibrant democracies into hollow shells.

Legal foundations

The proposal builds on solid legal foundations. Article 21 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights establishes that ‘public authority must derive from the will of the people’, while article 25 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights recognises every citizen’s right to participate in public affairs and vote in free, fair and clean periodic elections.

Regional mechanisms provide valuable precedents. The Inter-American Democratic Charter explicitly states that ‘the peoples of the Americas have a right to democracy and their governments have an obligation to promote and defend it’. Building on this, Guatemala has recently requested an advisory opinion to clarify whether democracy constitutes a fundamental human right and what tangible obligations this imposes on states.

These foundations provide an actionable definition of democracy that respects diverse democratic models while upholding universal principles, sidestepping cultural relativist arguments that some authoritarian governments use to avoid accountability.

Momentum building

The proposal has generated remarkable momentum. On the 75th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, a broad coalition of civil society groups and think tanks published a joint statement calling for the appointment of a UN Special Rapporteur on Democracy.

Civil society leadership reflects widespread frustration among democracy activists who work under increasingly dangerous conditions and demand better institutional responses. Budget-conscious states should find this proposal attractive given the remarkable cost-effectiveness of the UN mandates system. Following standard UN practice, the new position would be unpaid, relying on voluntary funding from supportive states.

During its recent 58th session, the UN Human Rights Council adopted a resolution on human rights, democracy and the rule of law, conferring multilateral legitimacy on governments that want to support stronger democracy oversight. The window for action is open, but it won’t stay open indefinitely.

A test for international institutions

No single initiative will reverse global democratic decline. But this new role would enable systematic documentation, trend spotting and the sustained international attention democracy defenders desperately need. The rapporteur could investigate not just obvious authoritarian crackdowns but early signs of subtler democratic erosion, while highlighting innovations and good practices that others could adapt.

The debate over a UN Special Rapporteur on Democracy offers a test of whether international institutions can adapt to contemporary challenges or will remain trapped in outdated approaches while democracy crumbles. Creating this mandate would communicate that the international community takes democratic governance seriously enough to monitor it systematically – a signal that matters to democracy activists who need international support and serves as a warning to authoritarian leaders who thrive when nobody is watching.

With hundreds of civil society groups leading this charge from the frontlines of democratic struggle, the question isn’t whether this oversight is needed, but whether the UN will act before it’s too late.

Samuel King is a researcher with the Horizon Europe-funded research project ENSURED: Shaping Cooperation for a World in Transition at CIVICUS: World Alliance for Citizen Participation, and Inés M. Pousadela is CIVICUS Senior Research Specialist, writer at CIVICUS Lens and co-author of the State of Civil Society Report.

For interviews or more information, please contact research@civicus.org

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Multi-Year Drought Gives Birth to Extremist Violence, Girls Most Vulnerable

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Combating Desertification and Drought

In Nairobi’s Kibera, the largest urban informal settlement in Africa, girls and women wait their turn for the scarce water supply. Credit: Manipadma Jena/IPS

SEVILLE & BHUBANESWAR, Jul 2 2025 (IPS) – While droughts creep in stealthily, their impacts are often more devastating and far-reaching than any other disaster. Inter-community conflict, extremist violence, and violence and injustice against vulnerable girls and women happen at the intersection of climate-induced droughts and drought-impoverished communities.

Five consecutive years of failed rain in Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya brought the worst drought in seventy years to the Horn of Africa by 2023. In Somalia, the government estimated 43,000 excess deaths in 2022 alone due to drought-linked hunger.

As of early current year, 4.4 million people, or a quarter of Somalia’s population, face crisis-level food insecurity, including 784,000 people expected to reach emergency levels. Together, over 90 million people across Eastern and Southern Africa face acute hunger. Some areas have been enduring their worst ever recorded drought, finds a United Nations-backed study, Drought Hotspots Around the World 2023-2025 released today at the 4th International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD4).

UNCCD Executive Secretary Ibrahim Thiaw said "Drought is here, escalating, and demands urgent global cooperation" Photo courtesy: UNCCD

UNCCD Executive Secretary Ibrahim Thiaw noted that while drought is here and escalating, it demands urgent global cooperation. Photo courtesy: UNCCD

High tempera­tures and a lack of precipitation in 2023 and 2024 resulted in water supply shortages, low food supplies, and power rationing. In parts of Africa, tens of millions faced drought-induced food shortages, malnutrition, and displacement, finds the new 2025 drought analysis, Drought Hotspots Around the World 2023-2025, by the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and the U.S. National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC).

It not just comprehensively synthesizes impacts on humans but also on biodiversity and wildlife within the most acute drought hotspots in Africa (Somalia, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Botswana, and Namibia), the Mediterranean (Spain, Morocco, and Türkiye), Latin America (Panama and the Amazon Basin) and Southeast Asia.

Desperate to Cope but Pulled Into a Spiral of Violence and Conflict

“The coping mechanisms we saw during this drought grew increasingly desperate,” says lead author Paula Guastello, NDMC drought impacts researcher. “Girls pulled from school and forced into marriage, hospitals going dark, and families digging holes in dry riverbeds just to find contaminated water. These are signs of severe crisis.”

Over one million Somalis in 2022 were forced to move in search of food, water for families and cattle, and alternative livelihoods. Migration is a major coping mechanism mostly for subsistence farmers and pastoralists. However, mass migration strains resources in host areas, often leading to conflict. Of this large number of displaced Somalis, many crossed into territory held by Islamic extremists.

Drought in a Sub-Saharan district leads to 8.1 percent lower economic activity and 29.0 percent higher extremist violence, an earlier study found. Districts with more months of drought in a given year and more years in a row with drought experienced more severe violence.

Drought expert and editor of the UNCCD study Daniel Tsegai told IPS at the online pre-release press briefing from the Saville conference that drought can turn into an extremist violence multiplier in regions and among communities rendered vulnerable by multi-year drought.

Climate change-driven drought does not directly cause extremist conflict or civil wars; it overlaps and exacerbates existing social and economic tensions, contributing to the conditions that lead to conflict and potentially influencing the rise of extremist violence, added Tsegai.

Extracting water from a traditional well using a manual pulley system. Credit: Abdallah Khalili / UNCCD

Extracting water from a traditional well using a manual pulley system. Credit: Abdallah Khalili / UNCCD

Though the effects of climate change on conflict are indirect, they have been seen to be quite severe and far-reaching. An example is the 2006-2011 drought in Syria, seen as the worst in 900 years. It led to crop failures, livestock deaths and mass rural displacement into cities, creating social and political stress. Economic disparities and authoritarian repression gave rise to extremist groups that exploited individuals facing unbearable hardships.

The UN study cites entire school districts in Zimbabwe that saw mass dropouts due to hunger and school costs. Rural families were no longer able to afford uniforms and tuition, which cost USD 25. Some children left school to migrate with family and work.

Drought-related hunger impact on children

Hungry and clueless about their dark futures, children become prime targets for extremists’ recruitment.

A further example of exploitation of vulnerable communities by extremists is cited in the UNCCD drought study. The UN World Food Programme in May 2023 estimated that over 213,000 more Somalis were at “imminent risk” of dying of starvation. Little aid had reached Somalia, as multiple crises across the globe spread resources thin.

However, al-Shabab, an Islamic extremist group tied to al-Qaida, allegedly prevented aid from reaching the parts of Somalia under its control and refused to let people leave in search of food.

Violent clashes for scarce resources among nomadic herders in the Africa region during droughts are well documented. Between 2021 and January 2023 in eastern Africa alone, over 4.5 million livestock had died due to droughts, and 30 million additional animals were at risk. Facing starvation of both their families and their livestock, by February 2025, tens of thousands of pastoralists had moved with their livestock in search of food and water, potentially into violent confrontations with host regions.

Tsegai said, “Drought knows no geographical boundaries. Violence and conflict spill over into economically healthy communities this way.”

Earlier drought researchers have emphasized to policymakers that “building resilience to drought is a security imperative.”

Women and Girls Worst Victims of Drought Violence

“Today, around 85 percent of people affected by drought live in low- and middle-income countries, with women and girls being the hardest hit,” UNCCD Deputy Executive Secretary Andrea Meza said.

“Drought might not know boundaries, but it knows gender,” Tsegai said. Women and girls in low-income countries are the worst victims of drought-induced societal instability.

Traditional gender-based societal inequalities are what make women and girl children par­ticularly vulnerable.

During the 2023-2024 drought, forced child marriages in sub-Saharan Africa more than doubled in frequency in the four regions hit hardest by the drought. Young girls who married brought their family income in the form of a dowry that could be as high as 3,000 Ethiopian birr (USD 56). It lessened the financial burden on girls’ parental families.

Forced child marriages, however, bring substantial risks to the girls. A hospital clinic in Ethiopia (which, though, it has outlawed child marriage) specifically opened to help victims of sexual and physi­cal abuse that is common in such marriages.

Girls gener­ally leave school when they marry, further stifling their opportunities for financial independence.

Reports have found desperate women exchanging sex for food or water or money during acute water scarcities. Higher incidence of sexual violence happens when hydropower-dependent regions are confronted with 18 to 20 hours without electricity and women and girls are compelled to walk miles to fetch household water.

“Proactive drought management is a matter of climate justice,” UNCCD Meza said.

Drought Hotspots Need to Be Ready for This ‘New’ Normal

“Drought is no longer a distant threat,” said UNCCD Executive Secretary Ibrahim Thiaw, adding, “It is here, escalating, and demands urgent global cooperation. When energy, food, and water all go at once, societies start to unravel. That’s the new normal we need to be ready for.”

“This is a slow-moving global catastrophe, the worst I’ve ever seen. This report underscores the need for systematic monitoring of how drought affects lives, livelihoods, and the health of the ecosystems that we all depend on,” said Mark Svoboda, report co-author and NDMC Founding Director.

“The struggles experienced by Spain, Morocco and Türkiye to secure water, food, and energy under persistent drought offer a preview of water futures under unchecked global warming. No country, regardless of wealth or capacity, can afford to be complacent,” he added.

Global Drought Outlook 2025 estimates the economic impacts of an average drought today can be up to six times higher than in 2000, and costs are projected to rise by at least 35% by 2035.

“It is calculated that $1 of investment in drought prevention results in bringing back $7 into the GDP lost to droughts. Awareness of the economics of drought is important for policymaking,” Tsegai said.

The report released during the International Drought Resilience Alliance (IDRA) event at the Saville conference aims to get public policies and international cooperation frameworks to urgently prioritize drought resilience and bolster funding.

IPS UN Bureau Report