TOGO: ‘The International Community Must Send a Clear Message That Power Grabs Won’t Be Tolerated’

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Sep 11 2024 (IPS) –  
CIVICUS discusses the crackdown on civil society in Togo with a human rights defender who asked to stay anonymous for security reasons.

Political tensions in Togo have increased following the recent adoption of constitutional changes. Under the new parliamentary system, the president will be elected by parliament rather than popular vote, and a powerful new post of President of the Council of Ministers will be created. Suspicions are that the changes will enable President Faure Gnassingbé to stay in power. Gnassingbé has ruled Togo since 2005, when he took over from his father, who’d seized power in a 1967 coup. The government has banned protests against the changes, disrupted civil society meetings, arbitrarily arrested and detained protesters and suspended and deported journalists for covering the unrest.

What are the main constitutional changes and why have the political opposition and civil society objected to them?

On 25 March, Togo’s National Assembly adopted a new constitution that dramatically changes the country’s governance from a presidential to a parliamentary system. The changes were not put to a referendum, but were decided through opaque legislative procedures. The main changes are the abolition of direct presidential elections and the creation of the powerful role of President of the Council of Ministers. Similar to a prime minister, this president is elected by parliament for a six-year term that can be extended indefinitely if he retains majority support. This removes the two-term limit imposed by the 2019 constitution, which was introduced after massive public protests.

The new constitution sparked widespread controversy and came amid an already tense political climate, with parliamentary and regional elections originally scheduled for 13 April repeatedly postponed while lawmakers debated the constitutional changes. Political parties, civil society organisations (CSOs), the Catholic Church and part of the population see it as an attempt by the ruling family to cling to power, as the amendments would extend the 19-year presidency of Faure Gnassingbé and the 57-year dynastic rule of the Gnassingbé family.

We strongly condemn the adoption of the new constitution and the lack of transparency in the process. This is a constitutional coup that restricts citizens’ political rights, exacerbates political instability and undermines democratic governance.

What reforms are needed to ensure genuine multi-party democracy in Togo?

First, it’s crucial to restore direct presidential elections based on universal suffrage, because the electoral system should truly reflect the will of the people. But a president shouldn’t be allowed to rule indefinitely, so it’s also crucial to reintroduce term limits for the president and other key officials to prevent the concentration of power and promote accountability.

In addition, an independent electoral commission should be established to restore public confidence in a system that’s now perceived to be biased in favour of the ruling party. This commission should oversee all electoral processes and ensure they are free, fair and transparent.

It is also key to ensure equal access to campaign resources for all political parties. Fair media coverage and campaign financing would contribute to a more competitive and representative electoral process. It is equally important to strengthen legal safeguards. All parties should be allowed to operate freely without interference or fear of persecution and violence from state authorities.

We need to increase civic participation. Reforms should facilitate platforms for CSOs to engage in political debate. We must support grassroots movements with resources and training to help them mobilise people and educate them about democratic principles and their rights.

Togolese civil society is already pushing for these changes. Groups such as ‘Touche pas à ma constitution’ (‘Don’t touch my constitution’) are organising protests, raising awareness and holding community meetings to educate people and challenge the new constitution. They have also filed complaints with regional bodies such as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), calling for the annulment of the new constitution and the restoration of democratic norms. CSOs and democratic political parties are presenting a united front to demand democratic reforms.

How has the government responded to the protests?

The government has responded to the protests with a heavy-handed approach aimed at silencing dissent. Many opposition leaders and activists have been arrested. On 26 March, law enforcement and security forces banned two press conferences organised by political parties and CSOs on the grounds that the organisers didn’t have proper permits. This was a clear attempt by the government to stifle opposition voices. On 3 April, nine leaders of the political opposition party Dynamique Mgr Kpodzro were also arrested for ‘disturbing public order’. They were released six days later.

The use of violence, a hallmark of the Gnassingbé regime, has created a climate of fear. Anyone who takes part in opposition activities is framed as a criminal who threatens public order and is prosecuted. This has a chilling effect on civil society activism. Many people are afraid of being arrested or violently attacked if they engage in political discourse or take part in protests. This criminalisation undermines our ability to mobilise effectively and advocate for democratic reform.

With our freedoms of expression and assembly severely curtailed, we’ve found it increasingly difficult to organise events, hold press conferences or communicate our messages without interference from security forces. This has increasingly isolated us from the wider public. The crackdown on dissent has undermined public trust in both the government and CSOs, as people become disillusioned with the political process and the weak foundations of democracy.

How can the international community help address the suppression of civic freedoms in Togo?

The international community can play a key role by applying diplomatic pressure and supporting democratic reforms. Public condemnations and resolutions by international bodies such as the United Nations and the African Union can help highlight these issues and push for necessary changes. International bodies and representatives should engage directly with Togolese officials to address concerns.

They should also support local civil society by providing funding, resources and training. This support is essential to strengthen CSOs’ capacity to advocate for democracy and human rights, and to mobilise and empower people.

Independent monitoring and reporting mechanisms are essential to assess the political situation, ensure transparency in the upcoming elections and document human rights violations. If violations continue, the international community should consider sanctioning key officials and making development aid and assistance conditional on respect for democratic principles and human rights. This can serve as an incentive for the government to undertake meaningful reforms.

ECOWAS is also in a position to mediate between the government, the opposition and local civil society to promote a more inclusive and democratic environment. At a time when democracy is in retreat in West Africa, with four countries having suffered military coups since 2020 and 15 leaders having circumvented term limits, ECOWAS must take a firm stand against unconstitutional changes such as those recently seen in Togo and send a clear message that power grabs won’t be tolerated.

Civic space in Togo is rated ‘repressed’ by the CIVICUS Monitor.

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INDIA: ‘Civil Society Organisations Are at the Forefront of the Fight Against Gender-based Violence’

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Sep 5 2024 (IPS) –  
CIVICUS discusses the recent wave of protests against gender-based violence (GBV) in India with Dr Kavitha Ravi, a member of the Indian Medical Association (IMA).

Protests erupted across India after a 31-year-old female medical trainee was raped and murdered in a Kolkata hospital on 9 August. The IMA called a strike, with protests held in major cities including Kolkata and Mumbai. While the official strike has ended, many doctors, particularly junior doctors, remain on strike and protests continue to demand justice, accountability and safer working conditions for women.

Kavitha Ravi

What triggered the recent protests against GBV in India?

Protests erupted after the tragic rape and murder of a young female doctor at the R G Kar Medical College in Kolkata on 9 August. This horrific incident shocked the nation and sparked widespread outrage. In response, a coalition of doctors, medical associations such as the IMA and various resident and faculty associations joined together in a nationwide strike to demand justice for the victim and better safety measures for health workers, particularly women who face significant risks in the workplace.

Protesters are calling for major reforms, including the adoption of a Hospital Protection Act, which would designate hospitals as safe zones and introduce measures to create a safer environment for health workers. Their demands are part of a larger movement to comprehensively address GBV, prevent similar tragedies in the future and create a safer and more supportive working environment for everyone in the health sector.

What steps have been taken so far to ensure justice and the safety of female health workers?

The judicial system has acted swiftly by transferring the case to a higher authority to ensure a thorough investigation after concerns were raised about the police’s initial inquiry, which was not accepted by the students or the victim’s family. They were sceptical, believing the police might be favouring the college authorities and supporting the accused.

This decision aims to ensure a detailed investigation so justice can be done. The Supreme Court of India is also overseeing the case to monitor its progress, address any issues that may arise and ensure all necessary steps are taken to uphold justice.

In parallel, several initiatives are underway to improve the safety of female health workers. The Ministry of Health has proposed establishing a committee to review and improve safety protocols in health facilities. There are also plans to increase security in hospitals and establish a new national taskforce dedicated to improving safety through better infrastructure, advanced technology and additional security measures. However, despite these efforts, more needs to be done to combat GBV and ensure that these measures effectively protect female health workers.

How have the authorities responded to the protests?

The authorities have taken a mixed approach to the nationwide strike, combining concessions with new measures to address immediate concerns. The Health Ministry has drawn up a detailed plan to increase security in central government hospitals. This includes installing high-resolution CCTV cameras, monitoring access points with identification badges, deploying trained security personnel for constant patrolling and securing duty rooms for female staff. Hospitals are also encouraged to develop and regularly update emergency response plans and conduct mock drills.

In response to these measures, the IMA suspended its strike. However, other doctors’ associations have continued to protest for more substantial reforms. Many people remain dissatisfied, particularly after recent incidents of police violence. While the Supreme Court’s intervention may have temporarily eased the tensions, protesters remain concerned about the new measures’ effectiveness and full implementation.

Why is GBV so prevalent in India, and what’s being done about it?

Deep-rooted cultural, social, economic and legal factors account for the high prevalence of GBV in India. This is a patriarchal country where traditional gender roles and the subjugation of women are deeply entrenched. Women tend to be economically dependent on men, which traps them in abusive relationships that make it difficult for them to seek help or escape. Intergenerational cycles of violence perpetuate the problem, as children who witness or experience abuse may come to see such behaviour as normal.

Low literacy rates, particularly in rural areas, further limit women’s understanding of their rights and the available support. When they do seek justice, the system often fails to protect the victims or hold perpetrators accountable. Systemic failures in law enforcement and justice help perpetuate GBV.

Many initiatives and campaigns have helped highlight and address this issue. But it has not been easy. A lack of consistent political will and weak implementation of policies have hindered substantial change. Feminist and social justice movements often face resistance from conservative parts of society, making it difficult to change these deeply entrenched cultural norms.

To combat GBV effectively, we need a comprehensive approach that includes better education, legal reform, economic empowerment and cultural change. Civil society organisations are at the forefront of this fight, actively advocating for stronger laws, better enforcement and increased public awareness. Continued and robust efforts are essential to address this widespread problem and ensure meaningful change.

Civic space in India is rated ‘repressed’ by the CIVICUS Monitor.

Get in touch with the Indian Medical Association through its website or Facebook page, and follow @IMAIndiaOrg on Twitter.

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VIETNAM: ‘Human Rights Conditions Will Likely Worsen as the Country Descends into a Police State’

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Aug 29 2024 (IPS) –  
CIVICUS discusses recent leadership changes in Vietnam with David Tran, coordinator of the Alliance for Vietnam’s Democracy, a civil society platform that promotes democracy in Vietnam and the region through international cooperation and the strengthening of local civil society.

On 3 August, President Tô Lâm was confirmed as General Secretary of the Communist Party, Vietnam’s top position, following the death of long-serving General Secretary Nguyễn Phú Trọng. Lâm, who has been president since May, is known for leading an aggressive anti-corruption campaign that has seen many officials jailed and others forced to resign. He will continue as president while assuming the duties of general secretary, potentially enabling him to consolidate power ahead of the 2026 party congress, which will choose Vietnam’s top leaders for the next five years. Civil society fears the regime could become even more autocratic and repressive if Lâm retains both positions.

David Tran

What’s Vietnam’s political system like, and what’s the likely impact of the recent leadership change?

Vietnam is an authoritarian one-party state led by the Vietnamese Communist Party (VCP). There are four key positions of authority: the president, who is the ceremonial head of state, the prime minister, who heads the government, the chair of the National Assembly, the unicameral legislature, and the most powerful, the general secretary of the VCP.

Although the president is elected by the National Assembly, this body is overwhelmingly made up of VCP members, who usually approve all incumbents unopposed. On 3 August, following the death of the last VCP general secretary, Nguyễn Phú Trọng, Tô Lâm was confirmed as the new VCP leader.

This appointment is particularly significant because it puts a lot of power in the hands of one person. His dual role gives Tô Lâm considerable influence over the state and party, as well as greater control over the public security apparatus. While he appears set to continue the policies of his predecessor, there are several cracks beneath the surface. His power is likely to be challenged by several VCP members who’ve been forced into retirement by his ‘anticorruption’ campaign, effectively an initiative to eliminate competing factions. We can expect this infighting to continue and intensify.

What does Tô Lâm’s rise mean from a human rights perspective?

Tô Lâm has had a long career, including stints as minister of public security and a member of the politburo. The key role he played in the previous general secretary’s ‘anticorruption’ campaign saw him elected president in May, after his investigations into several high-profile politicians and businesspeople led to the resignation of his predecessor and other top officials.

The accumulation of power in the hands of the architect of a purge is unlikely to lead to improvements in civic space or human rights. Tô Lâm has been closely associated with the worsening human rights situation, as the Formosa and the Trinh Xuan Thanh cases clearly illustrate.

In April 2016, the Formosa company caused an environmental disaster when it discharged heavily polluted waste off Vietnam’s central coast. This caused widespread damage in at least four provinces and sparked protests. Instead of prosecuting Formosa, Tô Lâm, then minister of public security and in charge of the environmental police, suppressed peaceful protests and had 220 people sentenced to a total of 133 years in prison, not including probation after release. He said he was protecting Formosa from what he called ‘hostile forces’ – essentially anyone who criticised the company.

The second case involves Trinh Xuan Thanh, a former vice chair of Hau Giang Province, who fled to Germany in 2016 after being accused of ‘deliberately violating state regulations, causing serious consequences’. He was abducted on German soil by the Vietnamese secret service, which is under the Ministry of Public Security, and returned to Vietnam. Tô Lâm was directly involved in this operation, which Germany condemned as a ‘scandalous violation’ of its sovereignty and a ‘gross breach of international law’.

Given Tô Lâm’s track record, we expect human rights conditions to worsen under his leadership as Vietnam descends into a police state where human rights and the rule of law are ignored. The already limited space for civil society in Vietnam has shrunk under his watch, and we expect this trend to continue.

What are the challenges facing civil society in Vietnam?

Tô Lâm’s rise to power has been marked by his consistent efforts to stifle dissent. Under his leadership, the authorities, particularly the Ministry of Public Security, have increasingly tightened their grip on civil society organisations (CSOs). They have implemented new decrees that overregulate the registration and management of foreign CSOs and applied stricter rules to domestic organisations.

They have also weaponised tax laws and the criminal code to target civil society leaders, charging them with offences such as tax evasion and ‘abuse of democratic freedoms’. This has led to the imprisonment of prominent activists, including environmental and labour rights advocates.

Independent CSOs are subject to strict surveillance, with some being dismantled or forced to reorganise to conform to the authorities. This was exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which the authorities used as a pretext to impose further restrictions on civil society under the guise of public health measures.

Despite this repressive environment, some social service CSOs and philanthropic groups continue to operate and strive to make a positive impact. But their independence is severely restricted as they and their activists are constantly targeted.

What international support does Vietnam’s civil society need?

Human rights organisations and international bodies have raised concerns about the shrinking space for civil society in Vietnam. They have called for respect for freedoms of assembly, association and expression and urged the authorities to ease restrictions. While these statements are important, they must be accompanied by trade sanctions and other enforcement mechanisms. Words alone are not enough.

Unfortunately, human rights in Vietnam are also falling victim to geopolitics. As tensions with China escalate, the USA is increasingly seeing Vietnam as a counterweight to China. In this context, human rights and civic space are often sidelined, if not ignored altogether. We believe that a democratic Vietnam would be the best partner and ally in promoting a peaceful, open and stable Indo-Pacific region.

Even if Tô Lâm has a long way to go before he reaches a position comparable to Xi Jinping’s in China, consolidation of power is a general trend we’re seeing among the region’s communist states. Oddly enough, given how these two leaders came to power, it could be a sign that pressure for human rights and civic space, both domestically and internationally, is working. If the authorities feel compelled to respond by consolidating power and positioning figures like Tô Lâm to counter these movements, there is still hope we are on the right track.

Civic space in Vietnam is rated ‘closed’ by the CIVICUS Monitor.

Get in touch with the Alliance for Vietnam’s Democracy through its webpage or Facebook page.

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Bangladesh Students, Community Moves to Protect Minorities Following Fall of Hasina Government

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Active Citizens

Students and youth groups in Bangladesh stand guard outside temples and churches to protect those from vandalism during unrest after the Awami League government ouster. Credit: Rafiqul Islam/IPS

Students and youth groups in Bangladesh stand guard outside temples and churches to protect those from vandalism during unrest after the Awami League government ouster. Credit: Rafiqul Islam/IPS

DHAKA, Aug 28 2024 (IPS) – Immediately after the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government on August 5, 2024, following weeks of deadly demonstrations staged by students, people carried out attacks on the houses and temples of the Hindu community in Dacope of Khulna, about 225 kilometres from Dhaka. They particularly attacked and vandalized the houses of minorities believed to be involved in the politics of the ousted Awami League government.

At least 11 Hindu houses in Dacope were attacked and vandalized, with attackers claiming these were acts of political revenge.

But, in Dacope, local Muslim and Hindu students and the community soon joined together to guard the houses and temples of the minorities so that they would no longer be victimized due to the political changeover.

Beginning in mid-June 2024, peaceful student protests in Bangladesh turned violent, resulting in hundreds of people killed, including at least 32 children, and thousands injured. The protests were the result of the reinstatement of a quota system for the distribution of civil service positions.

The government resigned in response to the protests, and a civilian interim government took its place.

In other areas too, attacks were carried out on the offices of the Awami League (AL) and residences and establishments of the AL leaders and temples, churches and houses of minority communities across Bangladesh during unrest.

Nur Nabin Robin, a resident of Chattogram City, said many people from minority communities, including Hindus, Buddhist and ethnic people, live in the port city in harmony.

But when the Sheikh Hasina government fell on August 5, people of the minority communities began to feel insecure in Chattogram since attacks on minorities were reportedly being carried out in different parts of the country, he said.

“So, we patrolled in the city for two to three nights in groups and guarded the temples and houses of the minorities so that none could attack them. We also asked them to call us via mobile phone if they can sense any clue of attack on them,” Robin told IPS.

Their concerns were exacerbated because most police stations across the country ceased operating after the fall of the previous government.

General students and even madrasa students came forward to protect the houses and places of worship as the leaders of the Anti-Discrimination Student Movement asked supporters to guard temples and churches, responding to concerns voiced over reports of attacks on minority groups.

Jasim Uddin, a resident of Kuliarchar in Kishoreganj, told IPS that after the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government, mobs torched and vandalized houses of many AL leaders in his locality, but members of the Hindu community remained safe during the political turmoil as local people voluntarily safeguarded their temples and properties.

While national monuments and government buildings in the capital, Dhaka, were looted, there were no reports of attacks on temples or churches there during the recent political turmoil.

In Dhaka, Muslim students were found guarding the Dhakeshwari National Temple, a Hindu place of worship. A Muslim was spotted offering prayers in front of Dhakeswari temple so nobody would attack the temple.

Professor Muhammad Yunus, Chief Adviser to the interim government of Bangladesh, visited Dhakeshwari National Temple on August 13, 2024, to express his solidarity with the Hindu community. During his visit, he called upon the minorities to keep patience and remain united.

Yunus condemned the attacks on minority communities in the country as “heinous.”

Religious harmony is the long tradition of Banglalees, while people from different religions—Islam, Hindu, Buddhist, Christian—have been living together from generation to generation.

“Over 90 percent people in Bangladesh do not believe in communalism. Attacks were carried out on minorities due to political reason or gaining personal interest. Those who carried out looting and vandalism were not involved in the student movement,” adviser to interim government Syeda Rizwana Hasan told a function recently in Dhaka.

She said madrasa students had safeguarded temples in many places of Bangladesh, which showed an example of the country’s religious harmony.

Barrister Sara Hossain, the honorary executive director of the Bangladesh Legal Aid and Services Trust (BLAST), said once miscreants carry out any attack on minorities, all should protect them.

CONCERN REMAINS

Following the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government, there was chaos across the country, with law enforcement officials retreating in many places for fear of retaliation.

According to a report of the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) of the United Nations released on August 16, 2024, attacks were conducted against minorities, including Hindus, especially in the days immediately after the change of government.

The OHCHR report recognized the role of the student organizations and other ordinary people who were forming groups to protect the minorities.

It details some of the attacks against minorities, including Hindus, especially in the days immediately after the change of government. On August 5 and 6, Hindu houses and properties were reportedly attacked, vandalized and looted in 27 districts. A number of places of worship were also damaged, including an ISKCON temple in Meherpur, Khulna division, which was vandalized and set on fire.

On August 5 and 6, Hindu houses and properties were reportedly attacked, vandalized and looted in 27 districts, while many temples were also damaged, including an ISKCON temple in Meherpur, Khulna division, which was vandalized and set on fire.

The Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council (BHBCUC) claimed that around 200-300 Hindu homes and businesses were vandalized since August 5 last while 15-20 Hindu temples were damaged.

IPS UN Bureau Report

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Rohingya Refugees Must Not Be Forgotten

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Education Cannot Wait Executive Director Yasmine Sherif Statement on the 7-Year Anniversary of the Rohingya Crisis

A Rohingya refugee, Jannat is back in school and dreams of being a doctor. Credit: Save The Children Bangladesh/Rubina Hoque Alee

NEW YORK, Aug 26 2024 – Seven years ago, a brutal campaign of violence, rape and terror against the Rohingya people ignited in Myanmar’s Rakhine State. Villages were burned to the ground, families were murdered, massive human rights violations were reported, and around 700,000 people – half of them children – fled their homes to seek refuge in Bangladesh.

Today, Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar hosts the largest refugee camp in the world with close to a million children, women and men living in makeshift settlements. The crisis is an abomination for humanity. And while the Government of Bangladesh and other strategic partners are supporting the response, the resources are severely strained and access to essential services is scarce.

As the global fund for education in emergencies and protracted crises within the United Nations, Education Cannot Wait (ECW), along with its strategic donor partners, government, UN agencies and civil society, has supported holistic education opportunities for both Rohingya and host community children in Bangladesh since November 2017. The more than US$50 million in funding, delivered through a consortium of partners – including government counterparts, PLAN International, Save the Children, UNESCO, UNHCR, UNICEF and other local partners – has reached over 325,000 girls and boys with quality education. Over the years, the programmes have provided learning materials for close to 190,000 children, financial support to over 1,700 teachers, and rehabilitated over 1,400 classrooms and temporary learning spaces.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, fires in the refugee camp and other pressing emergencies, the programming in Bangladesh was quickly adapted, and over 100,000 girls and boys were able to take part in remote education programmes during the height of the pandemic.

For refugee girls like Jannat, these investments mean nutritious school meals, integrated learning opportunities, catch-up classes, and security and solace in a world gone mad.

We must not forget Jannat and the hundreds of thousands of Rohingya girls like her that only yearn to learn in safety and freedom. Our investment in their education is an investment in peace, enlightenment and security across the region. Above all, it is an investment in the Rohingya people’s rights and other persecuted groups that face human rights abuses and attacks the world over.

Despite strong support from donors – as shown in this powerful joint statement by Japan, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the United States following their visit to the refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar in May of this year – the Rohingya crisis is fast-becoming a forgotten crisis.

The Rohingya Humanitarian Crisis Joint Response Plan 2024 calls for a total of US$852 million in funding, including US$68 million for education. To date, only US$287 million has been mobilized toward the plan. More concerning still, only 12.8% has been mobilized towards the education response, according to OCHA’s Financial Tracking Service. What we need to realize is that our investments in education are investments in health, food security and skills development. Taken together with other actions, it forms a cornerstone upon which all the other Sustainable Development Goals can be achieved.

As we commemorate seven years of persecution and attack, we must demand that perpetrators are held accountable for human rights violations, we must establish conditions conducive for a safe return of the Rohingya to their native lands, and we must enforce the rule of law and expect humanity for the people whose lives have been ripped apart by this brutal crisis.

Join ECW and our partners in urgently mobilizing additional resources to provide Rohingya girls and boys – and other children caught in emergencies and protracted crises worldwide – with the promise of a quality education. They deserve no less.

IPS UN Bureau

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Things Can Only Get Better for Bangladesh

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Opinion

ROME, Aug 23 2024 (IPS) – The student movement in Bangladesh demanding reform of the quota system for public jobs was the straw that broke the camel’s back. The Awami League (AL) government led by Sheikh Hasina, in power continuously since 2008, collapsed on 5th August 2024. With Sheikh Hasina fleeing to India and leaving the country in disarray, her authoritarian rule of 15 years just melted away.

Saifullah Syed

Prior to this sudden and dramatic turn of events, during her rule, the country was mired by institutional and financial corruption, crony capitalism, authoritarian administration, and forced disappearance of opponents. In addition, the AL government of Sheikh Hasina monopolised all lucrative appointments and commercial privileges for people belonging to her party, banning political discourse and dissent.

She developed the personality cult of her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who led the country to independence in 1971 and who was brutally murdered on 15th of August 1975. The personality cult was so perverse that liberation of the country was attributed to Sheikh Mujib alone and all the other stalwarts of the liberation war and her party were ignored. Everything of significance happening in the country was attributed to his wisdom and foresight alone and were often named after him. Every Institution, including schools across the country and embassies around the world were obliged to host a “Mujib corner” to display his photo, and books about him only.

Yet, no political party, including the leading opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP) succeeded in mobilising an uprising against Hasina’s regime. This was partly due her ability to project AL and her government as the sole guarantor of independence, sovereignty and secularism. Everyone else was cast as a supporter of anti-liberation forces, being communal, and accused of being motivated to turn the country into a hotbed of Islamic extremism. BNP was also accused of committing crimes and corruption when it was in power.

The founder of BNP is linked to the cruel murder of Sheikh Mujib and the members of her family, and the current leader of BNP is accused of masterminding the grenade attack aimed at killing Sheikh Hasina at an AL rally on 21st August 2004. Hasina survived the attack, but it killed 24 people and injured about 200.

Why did the student movement succeed ?

Like most historical events there are several factors, but the ultimate ones were that (i) the students were willing to die and (ii) the Military displayed patriotism and wisdom by refusing to kill. The students came from all walks of life, transcending party lines and economic background. Hence, attempts to cast them as anti-liberation did not succeed. The army refused to kill to protect a despotic ruler. Bangladeshis have always overthrown dictatorial rulers.

Why the students were ready to die and the army refused to kill are important issues for analysis but the critical question right now is: what next and where do we go from here ?

What Next for Bangladesh ?

The students have shown support for the formation of an interim government with leading intellectuals, scholars and elite liberal professionals and civil society actors under the leadership of Dr Younus, the founder of the Grameen Bank and a Nobel Laureate. These people were previously silenced and harassed during Hasina’s 15 year rule.

Many people remain sceptical, however. Many fear collapse of law and order and communal disturbances in the short run, which may lead to the emergence of another dictatorial rule. Neighbouring India, which supported Hasina’s government, is concerned about the rights of minorities in Bangladesh, although they showed scant concern for the minorities in India in the recent past.

Political and geo-political analysts are busy analysing the geo-political implications and the role of key players in mobilising the students to overthrow Hasina. This is raising questions about who engineered the Regime Change.

Fortunately for Bangladesh and the Bangladeshis, things can get only better. None of the short-term concerns have materialised. No major collapse of law and order nor oppression of minorities have taken place, barring a few localised incidents. Regarding the long run, things can only get better: it is extremely unlikely that another leader can emerge with reasons to substantiate a “moral right to rule”, disdain political discourse and project a personality cult – the basic ingredients of a dictatorial regime.

Hasina embodied several factors which were intrinsically associated with who she was. It is unlikely that anyone else with a similar background will emerge again. She started as a champion of democracy by seeking to overthrow the military rule that followed the murder of her father, then as a champion of justice by seeking justice for the killing of her father. Over time, however, she became a despot and a vengeful leader. Even if AL manages to regroup and come to power, it will be obliged to have a pluralistic attitude and not identify with Sheikh Mujib alone. All the stalwarts of the party have to be recognised, as only by recognising the forgotten popular figures of the party can it re-emerge.

Regarding the wider geo-political play by bigger powers, it may be important but cannot take away the fact that the majority of people are in favour of the change and are happy about it. It could be similar to gaining independence in 1971. India helped Bangladesh to gain independence because of its own geo-political strategic objective, but it has not reduced the taste of independence. If Bangladeshis’ desire coincides with the objective of others’ then so be it. It is win-win for both.

Eventually, Bangladesh will emerge with robust basic requirements for the protection of the institutions to safeguard democracy, such as independent judiciaries, a functioning parliamentary system with effective opposition parties, vibrant media and civil society organisations. It will become a country that will recognise the collective conscience of the leading citizens and intellectuals and establish good governance and social justice. The economy may go through some fluctuations due to troubles in the financial sector and export market, but a robust agriculture sector, vibrant domestic real estate market and remittances will keep it afloat.

The author is a former UN official who was Chief of Policy Assistance Branch for Asia and the Pacific of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

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