Beyond Lives Saved: Why Early Warning Systems Are a Smart Investment

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Opinion

A buoy in a sea of Vladivostok, Russia is tracking movement of waves. Early warning system is vital for effective disaster management. Credit: Unsplash/Ant Rozetsky

BANGKOK, Thailand, Aug 8 2025 (IPS) – Significant progress has been made globally in implementing national and local disaster risk reduction strategies. Yet, the impact of disasters on lives and economies persists and disaster resilience is one of the most regressed areas in Sustainable Development Goal implementation.

Moreover, climate change is intensifying the frequency and severity of disasters. Under a 1.5°C warming scenario, average annualized losses could reach 2.4 per cent of GDP.

Traditionally, early warning systems (EWS) have focused on saving lives. While reasonable, this narrow framing often leaves potential co-benefits untapped. Given today’s strained economic and political context, investments in resilience must also generate broader economic and developmental benefits.

This potential payoff is no myth, latest studies show that every US$1 invested in adaptation is expected to yield over $10.50 in benefits over a 10 year period.

The Triple Dividend of Resilience model offers a comprehensive rationale for investment, emphasizing three interconnected benefits:

1: Saving lives and avoiding losses

The 2024 Global status on MHEWS found that countries with less comprehensive multi-hazard early warning systems (MHEWS) have a disaster-related mortality ratio that is nearly six times higher than that of countries with ‘substantial’ to ‘comprehensive’ MHEWS. Moreover, providing just 24 hours’ notice of an impending storm can reduce potential damage by 30 per cent.

For small island developing states, this potential can be higher – one study found that over 80 per cent of Cyclone Evans’ economic destruction in Samoa, amounting to 28 per cent of the country’s GDP, could have been avoided through efficient EWS.

Largely untapped, heat early warning systems also have proven benefits, from saving lives (see Ahmedabad’s Heat Action plan, which averts an estimated 1,190 heat-related deaths annually) to demonstrating clear economic benefits (for example, Adelaide’s Heat Health Warning System with a benefit-cost ratio of 2.0–3.3 by reducing heat-related hospital admissions and ambulance callouts).

2. Resource Management and Optimization

EWS enhance decision-making across sectors such as agriculture, water management, and energy, providing reliable, timely forecasts to support more efficient and sustainable operations. Crop advisory services boost yields by an estimated $4 billion and $7.7 billion annually in India and China, respectively. Some studies demonstrating that a 1 per cent increase in forecast accuracy results in 0.34 per cent increase in crop yields.

Similarly, fisherfolk earnings can be optimised when supported by Fishing Zone advisories that take into account the changing climate (in the same study, India’s fisherfolk are reported to earn Rs.17,820 more each trip when using the Potential Fishing Zone advisory of INCOIS).

3. Unlocking Co-Benefits

In disaster-prone regions, the constant threat of extreme weather creates persistent uncertainty that discourages long-term investments, limits entrepreneurship, and shortens planning horizons. By improving hazard detection and forecasting, EWS boosts confidence for both local and foreign investments. Beyond economic gains, the third dividend also delivers social and environmental co-benefits, regardless of whether disasters occur.

When EWSs are developed with active community involvement, social cohesion often follows (Viet Nam’s community-based early warning demonstrate this intangible benefit clearly).

Regional collaboration is a pathway to unlocking the triple dividend of resilience.

A key outcome of the 4th International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD4) in Seville reaffirmed the importance of multilateralism as a framework for addressing global challenges.

Initiatives like ESCAP’s multi-donor Trust Fund for Tsunami, Disaster and Climate Preparedness, has proven the success of pooled investments in regional early warning solutions. A recent Cost Benefit Analysis funded by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, reviewed 20 years of Trust Fund investments and found that each dollar invested had generated equivalent 3.7-5.5 dollars in benefits (see Figure below).

Source: ESCAP Authors

Established by the Trust Fund is an example of reduced DRR costs maximising benefits: the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES) has developed into a fit-for-purpose operational hub, now supporting 62 countries across Asia, Africa and the Pacific with advances and interoperable early warning solutions.

Through shared infrastructure, forecasting data, and governance mechanisms, these partnerships help countries lower individual costs, improve transboundary risk monitoring, and attract more sustained technical and financial support.

These regional disaster risk management approaches go beyond saving lives and deliver social, economic, and environmental co-benefits, unlocking a cycle of development and risk reduction. As disasters are turning more complex with compounding and cascading impacts, our shared early warning should remain agile, sustained and leverage the advances in artificial intelligence and machine learning.

Looking ahead, the pay-off from preparedness will be realised when policy and financial environments are reframed to truly optimise the return on investment of sustained DRM efforts at all levels.

As the UNDRR Global Assessment Report 2025 highlights, disaster and climate risks must be embedded at the heart of financial decisions and policy frameworks, not simply as crises to respond to. To do this, dedicated financing mechanisms are required to ensure sustained and predictable support for regional DRM initiatives. Of equal importance is national governments support for the integration of EWS into national and regional development planning.

ESCAP is uniquely placed to support this shift by scaling multi-hazard early warning systems that deliver the triple dividend of resilience., The upcoming ESCAP Committee on Disaster Risk Reduction provides a timely opportunity for countries to endorse a forward-looking agenda that reinforces early warning as essential infrastructure.

In today’s climate-uncertain world, the policy case for investing in disaster resilience is clear. DRM is crucial not only for lifesaving but also a driver of sustainable growth.

Temily Baker is Programme Management Officer, Disaster Risk Reduction Section (DRS); Morgan Schmeising Barnes is Intern, DRS; and Sanjay Srivastava is Retired, Former Chief DRS.
SDGs 1, 13, 17

IPS UN Bureau

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Embracing the Innovation Imperative: Tech-Governance at a Crossroads

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Opinion

Against the backdrop of disruptive global forces that create new challenges, risks, and opportunities for development, security, and the global order itself, the need for effective “tech-governance” – including the engagement of all countries, big and small, through existing global institutions – has never been more urgent

Technological change is unleashing a new era in productivity and creativity with far-reaching implications for global development and security. But, beyond adopting new, non-binding normative frameworks, all UN member states must come together to improve the management of new and emerging technologies to better leverage their many benefits, while mitigating multiple risks. Credit: istock

DOHA / WASHINGTON, DC, Aug 6 2025 (IPS) – Technological progress and the course of human history have moved forward together; more recent technological innovations have emerged with unprecedented speed and reach, deeply influencing many areas of human activity.

Advances in artificial intelligence and machine learning (consisting of neural networks), for instance, enable machines to process new information in real-time. As federated learning becomes more widespread, machine learning models can collaborate without the need to share sensitive data, thereby enhancing privacy and security.

These and other recent technological developments will find applications in sectors such as healthcare, where advanced algorithms can support personalized diagnosis and treatment. New and emerging technologies, including nanotechnology and human enhancement technology, have implications for international peace and security too.

Amidst the highest number of armed conflicts since 1946, military technologies are evolving rapidly in both damage potential and distribution.

Artificial intelligence and other technologies are fast expanding the autonomous capabilities of weapons and accelerating the spread of digital dis- and misinformation. At the same time, if present trends persist, only a few countries may dominate this space, in terms of both technological innovation and “setting-the-rules” for their governance.

Against the backdrop of disruptive global forces that create new challenges, risks, and opportunities for development, security, and the global order itself, the need for effective “tech-governance” – including the engagement of all countries, big and small, through existing global institutions – has never been more urgent.

In short, effective tech-governance helps countries to employ common principles (including safety and transparency), codes of practice, and regulation to implement shared values and protect basic human rights.

Successful governance of new and emerging technologies at the global level will require the UN’s 193 member states to not only adopt new, non-binding normative frameworks (such as the recently endorsed Global Digital Compact), but also to build upon them by pursuing targeted innovations in global governance.

In the Future of International Cooperation Report 2024, produced by the Doha Forum, the Stimson Center, and the Global Institute for Strategic Research, we call for assembling an International Scientific Panel on AI (ISPAI) that extends beyond the Global Digital Compact’s limited description focused on promoting “scientific understanding through evidence-based impact, risk and opportunity assessments.”

Feeding into current intergovernmental deliberations in New York co-facilitated by the Governments of Spain and Costa Rica, we believe the ISPAI should be tasked with producing knowledge products and increasing awareness of AI risk, principles, and regulations for policy-makers.

Modeled on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the ISPAI’s ultimate objective could be to understand and address the impact of emerging digital information technologies on the world’s social, economic, political, and natural systems.

The extraordinary pace of AI innovation requires an agile and fast-paced approach to scientific assessment by continually evaluating the technology’s evolving capabilities and ramifications.

A community of practice through an AI Frontier Collaborative would further assist the ISPAI with a new international public-private partnership for expanding access to – as well as investing in – AI technology from leading private sector AI developers, where much of the innovation happens outside the public realm.

Such an initiative would build upon public-private conversations at the recent AI Action Summit in Paris and complement the Global Digital Compact’s commitment to stand-up a Global Dialogue on AI Governance, designed to engage the 118 UN Member States (primarily from the Global South) that do not belong to any of the current seven major international AI governance initiatives.

Additionally, the International Scientific Panel on AI could function as a subsidiary of, and with direct administrative support from, an International Artificial Intelligence Agency (IA2), as elaborated in this forum.

Advising the UN General Assembly and Security Council, the IA2 would boost visibility, advocacy, and resource-mobilization for global AI regulation, while monitoring, evaluation, and reporting on AI industry safeguards. It could further help countries to combat AI-enabled disinformation and the resulting misinformation that can fuel violence and aid terrorist and criminal organizations.

Critically, a scientific panel (like the ISPAI) requires an agile policy platform (like the IA2), as a chief beneficiary of ISPAI’s analysis and recommendations. This will help to ensure its policy relevance and impact, as well as to serve as a central coordination mechanism for AI and related cybertech expertise across the UN system.

Artificial intelligence and other new and emerging technologies make possible powerful new tools for problem-solving. But they also raise serious governance challenges, including in the spheres of global development and security. Effective regulation to maximize their benefits and minimize risks requires the astute combination of advanced knowledge, multistakeholder approaches, and an agile policy interface.

To prevent unbridled competition – dominated by only a select few large companies backed-up by equally large and powerful countries – from leaving everyone worse off, let alone precipitating a serious lose-lose confrontation, we must continuously update global governance tools and mechanisms to keep pace with technological advances.

Improving their effective global management will continue to usher in benefits for potentially billions of people worldwide while, simultaneously, mitigating technological risks.

Mubarak Al-Kuwari is Executive Director of the Doha Forum; Richard Ponzio is Director of the Global Governance, Justice, and Security Program and a senior fellow at the Stimson Center;

Mohamed Ali Chihi is Executive Director of the Global Institute for Strategic Research.

IPS UN Bureau

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Roma’s Long Standing Exclusion Compounded As Ukraine War Continues

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Armed Conflicts

The home of Oksana Serhienko, Merefa village, near Kharkiv, Ukraine. Credit: Akos Stiller

The home of Oksana Serhienko, Merefa village, near Kharkiv, Ukraine. Credit: Akos Stiller

BRATISLAVA, Aug 6 2025 (IPS) – As Russian forces continue to lay waste to civilian areas of towns and cities across Ukraine, Roma in the country are struggling to access compensation to help them rebuild their damaged homes.

Russia’s relentless bombing has, according to the World Bank, left 13 percent of Ukraine’s housing damaged or destroyed, affecting over 2.5 million households.

Despite this, many Ukrainians, including Roma, have refused to leave their homes in the face of relentless bombing and instead are determined to carry on living in sometimes severely damaged homes to keep their communities alive.

But a new report has shown that many Roma—one of the most vulnerable communities in Ukraine—have been unable to access state property damage compensation: only 4 percent of Roma households surveyed successfully secured compensation for war damage, despite suffering widespread destruction.

This is because requirements for applicants mean the Roma population, whose lives were already precarious long before the war began, are being disproportionately excluded from the scheme, according to the Roma Foundation for Europe (RFE), which was behind the report.

“Many of the issues we identify [in our report] affect non-Roma applicants too—particularly in occupied or frontline areas… [but] what makes the situation more severe for Roma is the combination of these factors with long-standing exclusion and economic precarity,” Neda Korunovska, Vice President for Analytics and Results at RFE, told IPS.

As in many countries in Europe, the Roma community in Ukraine has long faced social exclusion and, many claim, systemic discrimination at societal and institutional levels.

But like the rest of Ukrainian society, they have felt the full effects of Russia’s brutal full-scale invasion over the last three and half years and many have seen their homes damaged or even destroyed.

State compensation for property damage caused by the fighting is available, but experts say there are significant barriers for claimants, some of which are specifically greater for Roma people.

These include requirements such as possession of official property documents and proof of ownership—both sometimes difficult for Roma from communities where informal housing and disputed property rights are not uncommon—as well as a need for a level of digital literacy, which can be a problem for communities where levels of digital exclusion are high, according to RFE.

The group’s analysis, based on cases across four Ukrainian regions, including Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih, Odessa and Kharkiv, shows that deeply entrenched legal, administrative, and digital hurdles are blocking Roma communities from accessing aid intended for rebuilding homes and lives, the group claims.

Zeljko Jovanovic, RFE president, said that current compensation systems, although designed for order and efficiency, often overlook those with fewer resources but no less damage, and that they lack “…the required flexibility for the complex realities of pre-war informality of homes, displacement, and occupation.”

“Many affected families cannot afford the property registration fees or the costs associated with inheritance procedures. The average damage of 2,816 Euros represents several months of pre-war salary,” he added.

RFE points out that in regions like Odesa, more than half (54 percent) of Roma families lack formal property registration, while in Kryvyi Rih, not a single claim from the surveyed households has been submitted to the state registry due to legal limbo over inheritance, missing paperwork, and lack of resources to navigate the system. Even in Zaporizhzhia, where property records are strongest, low application rates point to deep mistrust in institutions, amplified by experiences of discrimination.

Some Roma contacted for the survey said they had not even bothered to apply for compensation for fear that the government might later come and demand the money back from them.

“This is a reflection of deep institutional mistrust,” said Korunovska. “This mistrust isn’t unfounded—it’s rooted in long-standing patterns of discrimination. In previous research we have undertaken, many Roma respondents have described negative treatment by public officials when seeking housing or services. Surveys consistently show high levels of social distance between Roma and the broader population in Ukraine, which reinforces these feelings of exclusion.”

RFE points out that nationally, around 61% of submitted claims have been approved, but that among Roma, the figure was only 28%—and the vast majority (86%) of people surveyed for its report never submitted claims at all due to systemic barriers.

Liubov Serhienko, 69, has lived in her home in Merefa, near Kharkiv, for the last forty years. But it has suffered severe damage from bombings by Russian forces—during one attack the roof and some ceilings collapsed and one room is now entirely uninhabitable. During a short evacuation from the house, thieves stole her boiler, fridge, and furniture.

Her daughter, Oksana, describes how the family—three generations all living under the same roof, including Oksana and her children—is forced to use blankets to try to retain whatever heat they can in rooms now largely completely exposed to the outside because walls are no longer standing. In winter, snow blows straight into the home, she says.

While neighbors have helped with some repairs, resources are limited and the building remains in disrepair. Relying solely on her pension of 3,000 UAH (around €70) to support the household—the war has taken away all job opportunities for her and members of her family—she says all she wants is the state to help fix the roof and ceiling, as she no longer has the physical strength or finances to do it herself.

In testimony to RFE, which was passed on to IPS, Serhienko said, “What I want most right now is for my family to have a roof over their heads.”

Oksana criticizes the lack of help from the state for them and other Roma in similar situations.

“The government doesn’t care. They’ve done nothing,” she said.

Her mother goes even further, explicitly linking her experience to deliberate discrimination by authorities.

“[Just] Gypsies, they say. As if we’re not people. Maybe they don’t see us as people.”

Andriy Poliakov has stayed in his home in Andriivka in the Kharkiv region since the start of the full-scale invasion, despite the severe damage the dwelling has suffered in Russian attacks.

Windows are broken and there are cracks in the walls, as he has suffered several damages to their house, windows were broken, and there are cracks in the walls, as his house has shifted structurally due to bomb blasts. Poliakov, 45, refuses to leave his home, as he is a sole caregiver for some members of his family, even though he is disabled himself, but he says life is difficult, as they have no gas or other reliable heating source and rely on a makeshift stove he built from stone and bricks.

As with almost all of those surveyed in the RFE report, Poliakov has had no help from the state with any of the damage to his home. One of the reasons so many Roma choose not to even attempt to apply for compensation is the distrust of authorities that is widespread among communities—a distrust Poliakov shares.

“They don’t care. Even though I’m disabled and it’s on paper that I’m disabled… It doesn’t matter to them,” he said.

In the wake of its findings, RFE is calling on the Ukrainian government to integrate urgent reforms into reconstruction planning, including accepting alternative proof of ownership such as utility bills or community testimony, waiving registration fees for war-affected families, and introducing temporary ownership certificates to ensure displaced or undocumented Roma have access to compensation.

RFE says it is hoping to present its findings to government representatives in the coming weeks.

“We hope this data will serve as a constructive basis for reform, especially in light of Ukraine’s broader efforts to align with European values of fairness and accountability,” said Korunovska.

Jovanovic added that “even if full compensation isn’t possible now, temporary support is essential. Roma living in damaged homes are part of Ukraine’s strength and its resistance.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

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UN Chief Hails Turkmenistan’s Quiet Diplomacy as Launchpad for Landlocked Solidarity

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Volunteers at the Third United Nations Conference on Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDCs). Credit: Kizito Makoye/IPS

Volunteers at the Third United Nations Conference on Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDCs). Credit: Kizito Makoye/IPS

AWAZA, Turkmenistan , Aug 6 2025 (IPS) – In the glass-panelled hallway straddling Buildings 2 and 3 at the Awaza Congress Centre, two smartly dressed young Turkmens stood behind an ornate national pavilion—anxious, alert, and surprisingly eloquent.

Their broad smiles visibly grabbed wide-eyed delegates attending the Third United Nations Conference on Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDCs). With a confidence far beyond their age, the volunteers clearly explained to visitors the kernel of Turkmenistan’s national identity—entangled by culture as politics.

“This is a dutar,” said one, gesturing toward a glass-encased replica of a traditional two-stringed musical instrument. “It is played during weddings and celebrations. It carries the stories of our people.”

His colleague pointed to a smaller display nearby, where a miniature replica of the monumental Neutrality Monument stood—the golden effigy of Saparmurat Niyazov, the country’s founding president, glinting under gallery lights. “This represents our neutrality,” she said proudly. “We are a peaceful nation. We do not choose sides.”

As visitors flocked to the pavilion, the two young guides continued their patient explanations—this time describing a replica of Akhal-Teke horses, symbols of national pride, bred for endurance and elegance.

“Just like the horses,” one said with a grin, “Our country is strong, swift, and steady. But we also don’t race just because others are running.”

In this resort city, hospitality is a powerful expression of national pride.

As you move around the streets, women in long traditional gowns greet you with a graceful nod and a soft “Hoş geldiňiz”—welcome.” Dressed in embroidered velvet dresses that sweep the floor and crowned with intricate headscarves, these women are the gentle face of Turkmenistan’s long-held tradition of welcoming strangers with dignity and warmth.

“It is in our blood to treat foreigners with great care and concern.”

In a world increasingly divided, the warmth of Turkmenistan’s people, cloaked in simple gestures of kindness, stands as a symbol of diplomacy—one that speaks not through declarations, but through hospitality that lingers long after the meetings are over.

A Doctrine of Distance

Since 1995, when the UN General Assembly unanimously recognized Turkmenistan’s neutrality, the Central Asian nation has embraced a foreign policy of non-alignment, eschewing military alliances, foreign bases, and entanglements in regional conflicts. The policy, enshrined in the national constitution, is described by government officials as a model of “positive neutrality”—a means of building peace through equidistance and sovereignty.

A Fortress Amid Fires

Bordered by Iran, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and the Caspian Sea, Turkmenistan occupies a strategically sensitive patch of Eurasia. Yet it has remained almost impervious to the turmoil around it. When war engulfed Afghanistan, Turkmenistan kept its embassies open. It offered humanitarian aid—but not political commentary.

Unlike other Central Asian states, it refrained from joining Moscow-led security blocs like the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and even kept Beijing at a careful diplomatic bay despite deepening energy ties.

Turkmenistan’s hosting of the LLDC conference carried both symbolic and practical significance. It is one of the few LLDCs that has successfully leveraged its location by investing heavily in cross-border energy and transport infrastructure.

“Your hosting of this important global gathering is a testament to the country’s commitment to international cooperation and sustainable development,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

A Landmark Moment for Landlocked Nations

On the shores of the Caspian Sea, in the resort town of Awaza, limousines ferried dignitaries past pine-lined boulevards and marble buildings as world leaders gathered for the momentous talk.

The Awaza gathering brought together representatives from 32 landlocked developing countries—home to nearly 600 million people across Africa, Asia, Europe, and South America—to chart a new course under the Awaza Programme of Action, a 10-year strategy aimed at reversing structural disadvantages stemming from geographical isolation.

Awaza’s gleaming hotels and high-tech halls stood in contrast to Burundi’s rugged highlands thousands of kilometers away—but in both, a digital transformation is underway.

The stakes could not be higher. LLDCs account for just over 1 percent of global trade and economic output, despite housing 7 percent of the global population. They face steep transport costs, limited access to global markets, unreliable infrastructure, and acute climate vulnerabilities.

A Moment for Multilateralism

As the 3rd LLDC conference convened in the windswept coastal town of Awaza, all eyes turned to Turkmenistan—not for bold pronouncements, but for the quiet power of its example. With its longstanding policy of neutrality, the Central Asian nation has carved a distinct identity rooted in non-alignment and peaceful engagement, making it an ideal host for a summit aimed at fostering regional solidarity and global support for countries isolated by geography.

Secretary-General António Guterres, in a rousing address, held up Turkmenistan’s model of diplomacy and inclusion as a guiding light for other landlocked nations struggling with marginalization. Against a backdrop of rising global fragmentation, Awaza became more than a meeting ground—it emerged as a bridge between continents and between aspiration and action.

Speaking at a high-level press conference Tuesday, Guterres issued a passionate appeal for justice, equity, and renewed international solidarity, reminding the world that “geography should never define destiny.”

“This conference reflects a new era of cooperation taking shape across Central Asia,” said Guterres, “grounded in mutual trust, shared priorities, and growing regional solidarity. At a time when multilateralism is being tested, this spirit of partnership is more essential than ever.”

A Plea for Dignity and Inclusion

Guterres’s remarks were peppered with humanistic language rarely heard at geopolitical conferences. “This is not only a matter of development,” he told journalists. “It’s a matter of dignity and justice.”

Responding to a question from Euronews, he drew a distinction between landlocked developed nations like Switzerland or Austria and their developing counterparts. “They have free access to harbors and integrated markets. But for landlocked developing countries, being far from ports and trade hubs is a real disadvantage,” he said.

He praised Turkmenistan’s multilateral diplomacy and recalled the country’s remarkable feat of granting citizenship to all stateless persons left behind after the collapse of the Soviet Union. “This was almost unique in the world—a symbol of generosity I never forgot,” he said.

Four Pillars of Action

The Awaza Programme of Action is a comprehensive development framework aligned with the UN 2030 Agenda. It charts an ambitious, multi-sectoral path forward, structured around four priorities:

1. Unlocking Economic Potential

Guterres called for bold investment in infrastructure, education, digital connectivity, and innovation.

“The countries represented here have the talent and the ideas,” he said. “They need the tools and support.”

2. Connecting to the World

“Trade corridors, transit systems, and regional integration are not technical issues—they are lifelines,” Guterres said.

He urged countries and institutions to invest in both the “hardware” and “software” of trade—resilient transport infrastructure, harmonized customs procedures, and smart logistics platforms.

3. Confronting the Climate Crisis

Though LLDCs contribute less than 3 percent to global emissions, they are among the hardest hit by climate disasters.

Guterres called on rich nations to fulfill their pledges to double adaptation finance, support green industries in LLDCs, and provide early warning systems.

4. Reforming Global Finance

Guterres described the global financial system as “unfit for the realities of today.” He called for tripling the lending capacity of development banks, expanding concessional finance, and reforming sovereign debt architecture.

Global Responsibility and Shared Future

Though the conference was set against a backdrop of regional cooperation in Central Asia, its implications reverberate far beyond.

“When LLDCs thrive, entire regions benefit.” Guterres said

Global Call for Justice, Not Charity

Though spread across four continents—from the Sahel to the Himalayas, and from Central Asia to South America—LLDCs face a strikingly similar plight: crippling transport costs, technological isolation, and rising debt burdens.

“Landlocked developing countries don’t want charity. They want justice,” Guterres told reporters. “They want equitable access.”

Digital Lifelines for a Disconnected World

One of the most pressing themes in Awaza was the digital divide that has left millions in LLDCs without access to online education, health services, or global markets.

“Digital transformation must be central to our effort,” Guterres said.

He pledged to present a report on innovative financing to support AI capacity-building and called for robust public-private partnerships.

Connecting Landlocked Economies to the World

Guterres also emphasized infrastructure investment and seamless cross-border trade as keys to transformation.

“We must cut red tape, digitize border operations, and modernize transport networks,” he said.

Building Bridges Across Borders

In an interview with IPS, Aygul Rahimova, a resident of Turkmenistan, underlined the importance of the LLDC conference for regional connectivity.

“Although we are technically landlocked, Turkmenistan borders the Caspian Sea, which offers us a unique opportunity to serve as a transport and logistics bridge between Asia and Europe,” she said.

“I hope this conference becomes a catalyst for deeper cooperation… Turkmenistan is ready to play a key role in building bridges—through the Caspian, through trade, through diplomacy.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

Equal Footing: Building Pathways for Landlocked Developing Countries to Participate in Global Economy

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The raised flags of Turkmenistan and the United Nations marked the official opening of the Third UN Conference on Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDC3). Credit: Joyce Chimbi/IPS

The raised flags of Turkmenistan and the United Nations marked the official opening of the Third UN Conference on Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDC3). Credit: Joyce Chimbi/IPS

AWAZA, Turkmenistan, Aug 5 2025 (IPS) – Heads of State, ministers, investors and grassroots leaders are gathered in Awaza on Turkmenistan’s Caspian coast for a once-in-a-decade UN conference aimed at rewiring the global system in support of 32 landlocked developing countries whose economies are often ‘locked out’ of opportunity due to their lack of access to the sea.

Geography has long dictated the destiny of landlocked nations. Trade costs are up to 74 percent higher than the global average. It can take twice as long to move goods across borders compared to coastal countries. As a result, landlocked nations are left with just 1.2 percent of world trade and are at great risk of being left furthest behind amid global economic shifts.

Speaking during the opening plenary and in the context of implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), President of Turkmenistan Serdar Berdimuhamedow stated that his country believes “in the need to accelerate the process of ensuring transport connectivity, as well as to bring fresh ideas and momentum to this process.”

“In connection with this, last year at the World Government Summit in Dubai, Turkmenistan proposed creating a new partnership format, namely a global atlas of sustainable transport connectivity. I invite all foreign participants to carefully consider this initiative.”

The Third UN Conference on Landlocked Developing Countries, or LLDC3, is pushing for freer transit, smarter trade corridors, stronger economic resilience, and fresh financing to boost development prospects for the estimated 600 million people living in those countries.

The UN Secretary-General António Guterres stressed that the conference is centered on reaffirming a fundamental truth: that “geography should never define destiny.”

“Yet,” Guterres continued, “For the 32 landlocked developing countries across Africa, Asia, Europe, and South America, geography too often limits development opportunities and entrenches inequality.”

Rabab Fatima, Under-Secretary-General and High Representative for the Least Developed Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States, and Secretary-General of the Third United Nations Conference on Landlocked Developing Countries, said, “For too long, LLDCs have been defined by the barriers of geography, remoteness, inaccessibility, and the fact that they do not have a sea. But that is only part of the story.”

She stressed that LLDCs may be landlocked, but they are not opportunity locked, as they are rich in resources, resilience, and ambition. These countries seek to lean into these resources and strong partnerships to counter challenges such as an infrastructure financing shortfall of over USD 500 billion.

For these countries, goods take 42 days to enter and 37 days to exit their borders. Paved road density stands at just 12 percent of the global average. Internet access is only 39 percent. To address these constraints, the Awaza Programme of Action proposes a new facility for financing infrastructure investments. This new initiative aims to mobilize capital in large quantities to bridge the gaps and construct roads.

Meanwhile, as these daunting challenges prevail, Guterres said debt burdens are rising to dangerous and unsustainable levels. And one-third of LLDCs are grappling with vulnerability, insecurity, or conflict. Despite representing 7 percent of the world’s population, LLDCs account for just over one percent of the global economy and trade—a stark example of deep inequalities that perpetuate marginalization.

Guterres emphasized that these inequalities are not inevitable. They are the result of an unfair global economic and financial architecture unfit for the realities of today’s interconnected world, compounded by systemic neglect, structural barriers, and—in many cases—the legacy of a colonial past.”

“Recent shocks—from the COVID-19 pandemic to climate disasters, supply chain disruptions, conflicts and geopolitical tensions—have deepened the divide, pushing many LLDCs further away from achieving the SDGs.”

Further stressing that the conference is not about obstacles but solutions that include launching a new decade of ambition—through the Awaza Programme of Action and its deliverables—and fully unlocking the development potential of landlocked developing countries.

Fatima said the Awaza Programme of Action is a bold and ambitious blueprint to transform the development landscape for the 32 landlocked developing countries for the next decade. The theme of the conference, ’Driving Progress Through Partnerships,’ captures a collective resolve to unlock that potential. It underscores the new era of collaboration where LLDCs are not seen as isolated or constrained but as fully integrated.

Emphasizing that the Awaza Programme of Action provides “the tools to unlock the full potential of LLDCs and turn their structural challenges into transformative opportunities. The implementation of the Programme of Action has begun. We arrive in Awaza with momentum on our side. We have put together a UN system-wide development and monitoring framework with clear milestones and outcomes, comprising over 320 complete projects, programs, and activities.”

“Over the course of the week, we will see here the launch of many new partnerships and initiatives that will bring fresh momentum to its implementation. As we take this process forward, allow me to highlight three strategic priorities that will guide our work in Awaza. First, bridging the infrastructure and connectivity gap remains our top priority,” she said.

Heads of state and governments, including the presidents of the Republic of Uzbekistan, the Republic of Armenia, Tajikistan, the Republic of Kazakhstan, and His Majesty King Mswati III from the Kingdom of Eswatini, stressed the significance of the conference for the group of landlocked developing countries in terms of identifying priority areas for further efforts with a focus on addressing modern challenges the international community is facing.

Mswati III said the conference reaffirms a shared commitment to having the structural barriers that hinder LLDCs from participating in the global economy, offering a platform to chart a path of resilience, innovation and inclusive growth. The leaders also shared many of the successes they have achieved amidst daunting challenges.

“To build resilience and ensure sustainable growth, Eswatini is diversifying beyond traditional sectors. We are promoting investment in agroprocessing, tourism, renewable energy, ICT, creativity, industries and private enterprise. This strategy broadens our economic base, creates jobs and supports inclusive development, aligning with our national priorities for 2030 and 2063,” he said.

Shavkat Mirziyoyev, President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, said that his country was “demonstrating strong momentum towards greater openness and transparency in logistics. Complex measures are being implemented to facilitate the digitalization of trade and transport processes. Structural transport and logistics spaces are the basis for dynamic transport implementation.”

Mirziyoyev stated that today, a single transport and logistics space is being established in the region. Comprehensive programs and projects are being implemented to transform Central Asia into a fully-fledged transit hub between East and West and North and South. Recently, mutual trade volumes have grown 4.5-fold, investments have doubled, and the number of joint ventures has increased 5-fold.

“This year, jointly with our partners, we have started construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway. Freight traffic on the Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan-Iran-Turkey transport corridor has increased significantly. In today’s world, it is crucial to have concrete, feasible, and institutionally supported solutions to overcome common threats and challenges,” he stated.

Fatima, the Secretary-General of the Conference, said the challenges are many, varied and complex, requiring investing in robust implementation tools and partnerships at all levels.

“Our mapping confirms that every target adopted here in Awaza advances inclusive, resilient and sustainable development. But policy alignment alone is not enough. We need a whole-of-society approach,” she expounded.

“This Conference marks a turning point in that regard. For the first time, LLDC3 features dedicated platforms for civil society, the private sector, youth, women leaders, parliamentarians, and South-South partners – each playing a critical role in making the APOA people-centered and responsive.”

Overall, she urged the global community to seize the present moment—with ambition, unity, and purpose—to chart a new path for the LLDCs: one of prosperity, resilience, and full global integration. She stressed that the true legacy of the ongoing conference will not be measured by declarations, but by the real and lasting change that is delivered on the ground.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

Spotlight on Landlocked Developing Countries Ahead of Third UN Conference

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Uganda's Malaba town borders Kenya to the east and is a major entry point for goods destined for landlocked Uganda, Rwanda, and South Sudan from Kenya's Mombasa Port. Credit: Joyce Chimbi/IPS

Uganda’s Malaba town borders Kenya to the east and is a major entry point for goods destined for landlocked Uganda, Rwanda, and South Sudan from Kenya’s Mombasa Port. Credit: Joyce Chimbi/IPS

NAIROBI, Aug 1 2025 (IPS) – Landlocked developing countries face a unique set of challenges. Without coastal ports, they rely on transit nations, causing higher trade costs and delays.

To explore solutions to these complex hurdles, the Third UN Conference on Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDCs) or LLDC3, will take place in Awaza, Turkmenistan, 5–8 August 2025.

May Yaacoub, LLDC3 spokesperson and head of Advocacy and Outreach at the United Nations Office of the High Representative for the Least Developed Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries and the Small Island Developing States (UNOHRLLS), told IPS that the conference is “an opportunity to unlock the full potential of landlocked countries and address the challenges faced by some of the world’s most marginalized countries.”

“In every LLDC the map itself shapes the economy. Without a coastline, even the simplest export, whether cotton lint, copper cathode or cloud‑based software, must first cross at least one foreign border and frequently an entire transit corridor before it reaches a port,” Tomás Manuel González Álvarez, Senior Programme Management Officer and LLDC Team Lead at UNOHRLLS told IPS.

“The UN estimates that this physical detour means average transport costs in LLDCs are about 1.4 times higher than in comparable coastal economies. Those added costs depress profit margins, narrow the range of viable products and deter investors who value just‑in‑time delivery.”

Against this backdrop and while lacking direct sea access causes and exacerbates hurdles in trade, connectivity, and development, Yaacoub says LLDCs host vibrant communities with untapped potential and that these countries “have the ideas and know what they need to prosper. By supporting them at LLDC3 with partnerships, innovations and cooperation, we can help to build a more equitable and prosperous future for all.”

“This conference comes at the heels of the expiration of the Vienna Programme of Actions, which was adopted in Vienna, Austria, in November 2014, during LLDC2. LLDC3 will continue the work of LLDC2 and serve as a platform to explore innovative solutions, build meaningful and strategic partnerships, and increase the investment in LLDCs,” she observed.

The theme of the conference is ‘Driving Progress through Partnerships’, which she says underscores a shift from donor-recipient dynamics to mutual accountability and co-investment. And, that this includes a stronger role for transit countries, enhanced multilateral cooperation, and alignment with the SDGs, Paris Agreement and the Pact of the Future.

Álvarez emphasizes that this key, landlockedness, is experienced very differently and that the conference agenda reflects an understanding of these complexities. In Africa, “for countries such as Niger or Zambia, the critical pain point is the sheer length and fragility of overland routes—1,800 km from Niamey to Cotonou; 1,900 km from Lusaka to Durban.”

“Road and rail bottlenecks meet frequent customs stops and, in parts of the Sahel, insecurity. The result is chronic delays and freight rates that can exceed the f.o.b. (a term that defines who pays for the transportation costs) value of low‑margin agricultural commodities.”

He says in Asia, Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan possess better road and rail grids yet face. At the same time, these economies are accelerating an energy transition, moving from hydrocarbons to renewables and green hydrogen so they now need corridors that can carry high‑voltage electricity and fiber as well as bulk ore.

“Bolivia and Paraguay rely on the 3,300‑km Paraguay–Paraná waterway for almost four‑fifths of their trade. Low river levels during recent droughts have stranded barges and cost Paraguay an estimated USD 300 million in 2024 alone. Moreover, new tolls levied by Argentina highlight the vulnerability that comes with dependence on a single transit state,” he says.

Within this context, Yaacoub says LLDC3 represents a major change in both scope and ambition compared to its predecessors—LLDC1 held in Almaty in 2003, which was a ministerial meeting, and LLDC2 in Vienna in 2014. The first conference of this nature, or LLDC1 focused primarily on transit policy, infrastructure development, international trade, and technical and financial assistance.

LLDC2 expanded to include structural economic transformation, regional integration, and means of implementation. Notably, she says, LLDC3 “introduces a more holistic and forward-looking agenda, emphasizing climate resilience and adaptation, digital transformation and technology access, sustainable industrialization, reforming the global financial architecture, shock-resilience and disaster risk reduction.”

Yaacoub says the LLDC3 agenda reflects the unprecedented global complexities of the current era—climate change, pandemics, geopolitical tensions, and economic shocks. Key thematic areas include climate vulnerability and financing, with an emphasis on operationalizing the Loss and Damage Fund, doubling adaptation finance, and ensuring access to concessional resources.

Álvarez says the conference is particularly focused on converting the narrative from landlocked to land‑linked and that unlocking these countries potential relies on a strategy built on mutually reinforcing pillars that include “how Multibillion‑dollar investments in regional corridors, the Central and Northern Corridors in East Africa, the Trans‑Caspian route into Europe, and new dry‑ports on the Paraguay‑Paraná system can cut door‑to‑port time by 30 percent within the decade.”

He says building climate resilience is critical due to a “heavy reliance of LLDCs on agriculture, especially rain-fed agriculture, as a primary source of income, employment, and sustenance. Climate variability has already begun to disrupt agricultural cycles, reduce crop yields, and threaten food security. These effects ripple across rural economies, deepening poverty and forcing difficult choices for households.”

Álvarez says these issues are critical, as the same remoteness that inflates freight costs also hampers relief when drought, flood or storm strikes. Many LLDCs suffer disproportionately from climate‑related disasters because they lack redundant road and telecom links, and that “as extreme weather intensifies, production shocks travel quickly through thinly diversified economies and can wipe out years of growth.”

Overall, he says, “collectively these headwinds jeopardize progress on at least six Sustainable Development Goals—most visibly Goals 1 (No Poverty), 9 (Industry and Infrastructure) and 13 (Climate Action). Unless structural constraints are eased, many LLDCs risk missing the 2030 milestones by a full generation.”

Álvarez says the “developmental drag created by geography is not merely inconvenient; it is systemic.”

Stressing that high logistics costs shrink the set of competitive exports and that “many LLDCs remain reliant on two or three unprocessed commodities, leaving them vulnerable to price swings and limiting the spill‑overs that normally accompany industrial clustering.”

He says limited fiscal space means that governments struggle to finance education, health and social protection at scale. LLDCs as a group record poverty rates 50–60 percent higher than the global developing‑country average and score lower on the World Bank’s human‑capital index, 0.36 versus 0.48 in 2024.

Yaacoub confirms that all these issues will be explored in depth across key thematic areas that also include the private sector, civil society and youth engagement to foster inclusive partnerships and South-South and Triangular Cooperation with an emphasis on regional and interregional collaboration.

“This inclusive process ensures that the new Awaza Programme of Action is grounded in the lived realities of LLDCs and their partners,” she observes.

After all is said and done, Yaacoub says the most desirable outcome from the Third UN Conference on Landlocked Developing Countries would be the global endorsement and operationalization of the Awaza Programme of Action, which is a transformative and actionable framework that empowers LLDCs to overcome their structural challenges and thrive in a rapidly evolving global landscape.

Stressing that LLDC3 will serve as “a high-level platform to present, promote, and mobilize support for the implementation of the Awaza PoA that was adopted in December 2024. The second outcome would be the mobilization of resources and investment commitments from development partners to support infrastructure, climate resilience, and digital transformation.”

Ultimately, she is optimistic that the conference will lead to strengthened partnerships and regional cooperation to renew and expand transit agreements and regional integration initiatives, including enhanced South-South and Triangular Cooperation frameworks and commitments to multilateral collaboration aligned with the SDGs, the Paris Agreement and the pact of the Future.

IPS UN Bureau Report