Still Hopes for a Future Plastic Treaty– But it Won’t be Easy

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A 30-foot- high monument entitled Turn off the plastics tap by Canadian activist and artist Benjamin von Wong was exhibited at the UN Environment Assembly in Nairobi, Kenya, in 2022. Credit: UNEP/Cyril Villemain

KATHMANDU, Nepal, Jan 20 2025 (IPS) – The last few weeks of 2024 were a disappointment for those who strongly believed that planet Earth is in need of bold actions.

First, there were the frustration stemming from what could be defined at minimum as unconvincing outcomes of both COP 16 on Biodiversity and COP 29 on Climate.

Then all hope was resting on a successful conclusion of the 5th and final round of negotiations held in Busan to reduce plastic pollutions, at the Inter-governmental Negotiating Committee INC-5. (25 November -1 December 2024)

Instead also in this case, at the end, it was a letdown because no consensus had emerged on some of the key elements of the negotiations. Yet, flopping this more gloomy and dark view, I am learning that activists for a strong treaty are not giving up.

They are not ready to concede defeat and, rightly so. The fight must go on.

At least at Busan, the gap between the parties involved in the discussions came at the fore, providing clarity on their own desired outcomes, this time, each showing their cards, without hesitancy. On the one hand, a diverse coalition of more progressive nations.

Within it, both members of the Global South and a part of the Global North worked very hard to press for the best possible outcome, a treaty that would also include targets to reduce plastic production, especially the most nefarious type of it.

On the other hand, governments representing strong petro-chemical establishments had the overt mission to trample and block any attempts of reducing plastic production. Their mantras were conveniently focused on recycling and circularity as the best remedy to reduce plastic pollution.

To have a better assessment of INC-5, I approached the Plastic Pollution Coalition, a US civil society organization advocating an ambitious treaty. The group has also pressurized Washington to take a bolder stance in the fight against plastic pollution.

The resulting conversation with members of the Coalition, carried out via e-mails, was also an opportunity to identify the next goalposts for future negotiations and what scenarios might emerge in the months ahead.

They key messages are that, despite the final outcomes of the negotiations were not what many had hoped for, those, who want bold actions towards reducing plastic pollution, should not despair.

First of all, my interest was on assessing the level of disillusionment among activists advocating for a strong and ambitious treaty.

“Plastic pollutes throughout its existence, and a strong globally binding treaty is critical for a healthy future for humanity. While we are disappointed with the outcome of INC-5—little to no progress on the treaty text—we remain hopeful and are very inspired by the growing collaboration and efforts of a majority of ambitious countries” said Dianna Cohen, Co-Founder and CEO of the Plastic Pollution Coalition.

The commitment from the members of the Coalition is not diminished but rather it is growing ad with it also a sense of optimism.

“The fight is far from over. Talks will resume in 2025, and Plastic Pollution Coalition and allies continue to call on the US government to adopt a stronger position in the treaty negotiations” said Jen Fela, Vice President, Programs and Communications at the Plastic Pollution Coalition.

“The work won’t be easy. While necessary to protect the planet and human health, there will likely be even less support for a strong and legally binding global treaty by the incoming US administration”.

“The good news is that the talks in Busan demonstrated that more and more countries are willing to be bold and tell the world to get on board with what UN Environment Programme Executive Director Inger Andersen called a ‘once-in-a-planet opportunity’ for a treaty that will end the plastics age once and for all”, Fela further stressed.

But what next? Balancing realism with ambition, what activists should aim in the next negotiations?

“We will keep pushing for a treaty that caps plastic production and prioritizes health, centers frontline and fence-line communities, acknowledges the rights of Indigenous Peoples and rights holders, restricts problematic plastic products and chemicals of concern, and supports non-toxic reuse systems”, Cohen, the Co-Founder and CEO of the Coalition told me.

“We are proud to stand with our incredible community of allies and continue our work toward a more just, equitable, regenerative world free of plastic pollution and its toxic impacts”,

Indeed, signs of hope are not misplaced”.

“Despite Member States being unable to reach a deal at INC-5, there was promising ambition and growing collaboration among the majority of countries, and we’re hopeful for the additional round of talks at INC-5.2 next year”, she further added.

“Ultimately, a delay is better than settling for a weak agreement that fails to meaningfully address the problem now, and the silver lining is that in the meantime, we can gain even more support for a strong treaty that cuts plastic pollution”.

Moreover, it is important to remember that despite there was no agreement, a new consensus is emerging.

“Despite pressure from a handful of petrostates, the majority of countries are rallying together for a strong treaty, with more than 100 countries backing Panama’s proposal to reduce plastic production, 95 supporting legally binding targets to regulate harmful chemicals, and over 120 nations calling for a treaty with robust implementation measures” reads a summary of INC-5 published by the Coalition.

A new coalition got cemented in Busan with countries like Panama and Rwanda working with European nations and others in the so called High Ambition Coalition to end Plastic Pollution.

I also wanted to better understand the key elements that can either make a future treaty at least acceptable for those advocating for plastic reductions and which are the “red lines” for them.

“Signs of a weak Plastics Treaty include voluntary measures to address plastic pollution, failure to commit to a significant global reduction in the total production of plastics, failing to identify and cease production of “chemicals of concern” known to harm frontline communities—a major environmental justice issue, a focus on recycling plastic as a solution, and omitting a full and strong range of actions that address plastic pollution throughout its endless toxic existence—from the extraction of its fossil fuel ingredients through plastic and plastic chemical production, shipping, use, and disposal” explained Erica Cirino, Communication Manager at the Coalition.

“The key is a mandated and significant reduction in plastic and plastic chemical production”.

“Signs of a strong treaty include mandatory caps on plastic and plastic chemical production, identification and further regulation of especially hazardous chemicals of concern, and including a full and strong range of actions that work to end plastic pollution throughout its endless toxic existence, starting with the extraction of its fossil fuel ingredients through plastic and plastic chemical production, shipping, use, and disposal” she further said.

“A binding commitment that reduces especially “problematic” plastic products and chemicals of concern would not be acceptable without a cap in overall production. All plastics pollute, and all plastic production must be reduced”, Cirino further explained.

The point raised by Cirino is one of the most contentious. “Those of special concern must especially be eliminated and regulated, but taking action to mitigate their harm should only be expedited—and not stand in place of mitigating harm of all plastics”.

Would it be still acceptable, in case there will be no breakthrough at all in the next round of negotiations, the most progressive nations, say the members of The High Ambition Coalition to End Plastic Pollution, would come up with their own, alternative binding agreement, even if not a fully-fledged global treaty as we are envisioning now?

Could this “extreme” and until now unimaginable ‘last” option make sense even if plastic polluters would continue with their “business as usual approach”?

“It’s certainly not an ideal solution, as plastic pollution is a global issue perpetuated by a global set of governments; investors; and industrial players, activities and infrastructure. That said, it potentially would be better than nothing if more progressive nations were to devise their own binding agreement, so long as it focused on curbing plastic pollution”, Cirino shared.

“The main issue is, many of the biggest plastic producers in the world (namely, the US and China) are absent from the high-ambition talks for now. It’s crucial that levels of plastic production drop globally. It would be all for naught if some countries reduce production, only for other nations to increase it”.

Meanwhile having some countries going “solo” carries risks and these they are crystal clear.

Indeed, there are palpable concerns in places like Europe on this regard.

There, the plastic lobbying is worried that a decline of plastic production in Europe means that other nations like China are taking advantage by ramping up their production.

We are in a conundrum. At this moment, I can’t imagine how the petro states will change their key negotiating positions. “If passed, hopefully an agreement among progressive nations would push other nations to also reduce their plastic production or, such an agreement may not help at all” concluded Cirino.

Simone Galimberti writes about the SDGs, youth-centered policy-making and a stronger and better United Nations.

IPS UN Bureau

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A Renewed Vision for Prosperity for Landlocked Developing Countries

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OHRLLS Office Banner. Credit: The United Nations Office of the High Representative for the Least Developed Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States (UN-OHRLLS)

UNITED NATIONS, Jan 3 2025 (IPS) – Over 570 million people live in the world’s 32 Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDCs), spanning across Africa, Asia, Europe, and Latin America. These nations face unique and complex development challenges. Their lack of direct access to the sea, geographical isolation, limited infrastructure, and difficulty integrating into global trade and value chains hinder sustainable development and progress.

The lingering impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, rising vulnerability to external shocks, climate change, and mounting debt burdens have further compounded these challenges, eroding progress achieved under the last developmental roadmap for LLDCs—the Vienna Programme of Action.

However, a pivotal moment for LLDCs is at hand. In the lead-up to the Third United Nations Conference on LLDCs (LLDC3), to be held next year, the international community has adopted a new Programme of Action (PoA) to guide LLDCs’ development from 2025 to 2035.

UN Under-Secretary-General (USG) and High Representative, cr. Credit: OHRLLS

A new decade of opportunity and progress

The new PoA is a landmark achievement designed to address the structural challenges of LLDCs and accelerate their socio-economic integration into the global economy. This vision focuses on five priority areas critical to transforming LLDCs into resilient and competitive economies:

Structural Transformation and Science, Technology, and Innovation (STI)

Economic diversification is crucial for LLDCs. Their dependence on a narrow range of commodities leaves them highly vulnerable to external shocks. The new PoA prioritizes value-added industries and leveraging technology and innovation to help LLDCs integrate more effectively into global value chains and build more resilient economies.

Digital connectivity, which is pivotal for sustainable development, is also an important focus of the PoA. In 2023, only 39% of LLDC populations used the internet, compared to the global average of 67%. The PoA aims to create regional digital platforms for peer learning and capacity building while increasing support to LLDCs to leverage technology for sustainable growth.

Trade, Trade Facilitation, and Regional Integration

Trade drives economic growth, yet LLDCs account for just 1.1% of global merchandise exports. High trade costs—averaging 30% more than coastal countries—significantly hamper their competitiveness.

The new PoA highlights LLDCs’ interest in establishing a dedicated work programme at the World Trade Organization (WTO) to address their unique needs. It also recommends developing a high-level panel of experts to examine the application of existing international laws on freedom of transit for LLDCs, ensuring that LLDCs can engage in international trade under fairer conditions.

Transit, Transport, and Connectivity

Transport infrastructure is a critical link for LLDCs to global markets. Bridging the current gap—nearly 200,000 km of paved roads and over 46,000 km of railways—will require over half a trillion dollars.

To address this, the PoA proposes an Infrastructure Investment Finance Facility (IIFF) for LLDCs to mobilize resources for sustainable transport infrastructure, thereby reducing trade costs and enhancing connectivity.

Enhancing Adaptive Capacity and Resilience to Climate Change and Disasters

LLDCs face significant vulnerabilities to climate-related disasters. Between 2012 and 2022, 447 such events affected 170 million people in LLDCs—double the global average.

The PoA emphasizes climate-resilient infrastructure, sustainable agriculture, and improved access to climate finance. It also notes LLDCs’ interest in developing a dedicated work programme under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Lastly, but more importantly,

Means of Implementation

The success of the new Programme of Action depends on robust means of implementation, including adequate resources, technical support, and strong partnerships. The PoA calls for increased development assistance and emphasizes the role of public-private partnerships in realizing its ambitious goals.

Driving Progress through Partnerships – a call for global solidarity and action

The adoption of the new Programme of Action is more than a commitment—it is a renewed call to action. Global solidarity is essential to provide LLDCs with the financial, technical, and capacity-building support they need. Strengthened partnerships and concerted efforts will enable LLDCs to leverage their potential and contribute meaningfully to the global economy.

The upcoming LLDC3 Conference in 2025 will serve as a critical platform to build this momentum and strengthen international collaboration and multi-sectoral partnerships for the implementation of the PoA.

With political resolve, enhanced partnerships, and tangible actions, LLDCs can emerge as dynamic contributors to the global economy, charting a path toward sustainable prosperity over the coming decade.

Ms. Rabab Fatima, United Nations Under-Secretary-General and High Representative for the Least Developed Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States.

IPS UN Bureau

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Civil Society Trends for 2025: Nine Global Challenges, One Reason for Hope

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LONDON / MONTEVIDEO, Uruguay, Dec 24 2024 (IPS) – It’s been a tumultuous year, and a tough one for struggles for human rights. Civil society’s work to seek social justice and hold the powerful to account has been tested at every turn. Civil society has kept holding the line, resisting power grabs and regressive legislation, calling out injustice and claiming some victories, often at great cost. And things aren’t about to get any easier, as key challenges identified in 2024 are likely to intensify in 2025.

Andrew Firmin

1. More people are likely to be exposed to conflict and its consequences, including humanitarian and human rights disasters, mass displacement and long-term trauma. The message of 2024 is largely one of impunity: perpetrators of conflict, including in Israel and Russia, will be confident they can resist international pressure and escape accountability. While there may be some kind of ceasefire in Gaza or halt to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, those responsible for large-scale atrocities are unlikely to face justice. Impunity is also likely to prevail in the conflicts taking place largely off the global radar, including in Myanmar and Sudan. There will also be growing concern about the use of AI and automated weapons in warfare, a troublingly under-regulated area.

As recent events in Lebanon and Syria have shown, changing dynamics, including shifting calculations made by countries such as Iran, Israel, Russia, Turkey and the USA, mean that frozen conflicts could reignite and new ones could erupt. As in Syria, these shifts could create sudden moments of opportunity; the international community and civil society must respond quickly when these come.

Inés M. Pousadela

2. The second Trump administration will have a global impact on many current challenges. It’s likely to reduce pressure on Israel, hamper the response to the climate crisis, put more strain on already flawed and struggling global governance institutions and embolden right-wing populists and nationalists the world over. These will bring negative consequences for civic space – the space for civil society, which depends on the freedoms of association, expression and peaceful assembly. Funding for civil society is also likely to be drastically reduced as a result of the new administration’s shifting priorities.

3. 2025 is the year that states are required to develop new plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change under the Paris Agreement. The process will culminate in the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, likely the world’s last chance to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees above preindustrial levels. This will only happen if states stand up to fossil fuel companies and look beyond narrow short-term interests. Failing that, more of the debate may come to focus on adaptation. The unresolved question of who will pay for climate transition will remain central. Meanwhile, extreme weather events such as heatwaves and floods can be expected to continue to devastate communities, impose high economic costs, drive migration and exacerbate conflicts.

4. Globally, economic dysfunction is likely to increase, with more people struggling to afford basic necessities, increasingly including housing, as prices continue to rise, with climate change and conflict among the causes. The gap between the struggling many and the ultra-wealthy few will become more visible, and anger at rising prices or taxes will drive people – particularly young people deprived of opportunities – onto the streets. State repression will often follow. Frustration with the status quo means people will keep looking for political alternatives, a situation right-wing populists and nationalists will keep exploiting. But demands for labour rights, particularly among younger workers, will also likely increase, along with pressure for policies such as wealth taxes, a universal basic income and a shorter working week.

5. A year when the largest number of people ever went to the polls has ended – but there are still plenty of elections to come. Where elections are free and fair, voters are likely to keep rejecting incumbents, particularly due to economic hardship. Right-wing populists and nationalists are likely to benefit the most, but the tide will eventually turn: once they’ve been around long enough to be perceived as part of the political establishment, they too will see their positions threatened, and they can be expected to respond with authoritarianism, repression and the scapegoating of excluded groups. More politically manipulated misogyny, homophobia, transphobia and anti-migrant rhetoric can be expected as a result.

6. Even if developments in generative AI slow as the current model reaches the limits of the human-generated material it feeds on, international regulation and data protection will likely continue to lag behind. The use of AI-enabled surveillance, such as facial recognition, against activists is likely to increase and become more normalised. The challenge of disinformation is likely to intensify, particularly around conflicts and elections.

Several tech leaders have actively taken the side of right-wing populists and authoritarians, putting their platforms and wealth at the service of their political ambitions. Emerging alternative social media platforms offer some promise but are likely to face similar problems as they grow.

7. Climate change, conflict, economic strife, repression of LGBTQI+ identities and civil and political repression will continue to drive displacement and migration. Most migrants will remain in difficult and underfunded conditions in global south countries. In the global north, right-wing shifts are expected to drive more restrictive and repressive policies, including the deportation of migrants to countries where they may be at risk. Attacks on civil society working to defend their rights, including by assisting at sea and land borders, are also likely to intensify.

8. The backlash against women’s and LGBTQI+ rights will continue. The US right wing will continue to fund anti-rights movements in the global south, notably in Commonwealth African countries, while European conservative groups will continue to export their anti-rights campaigns, as some Spanish organisations have long done throughout Latin America. Disinformation efforts from multiple sources, including Russian state media, will continue to influence public opinion. This will leave civil society largely on the defensive, focused on consolidating gains and preventing setbacks.

9. As a result of these trends, the ability of civil society organisations and activists to operate freely will remain under pressure in the majority of countries. Just when its work is most needed, civil society will face growing restrictions on fundamental civic freedoms, including in the form of anti-NGO laws and laws that label civil society as agents of foreign powers, the criminalisation of protests and increasing threats to the safety of activists and journalists. Civil society will have to devote more of its resources to protecting its space, at the expense of the resources available to promote and advance rights.

10. Despite these many challenges, civil society will continue to strive on all fronts. It will continue to combine advocacy, protests, online campaigns, strategic litigation and international diplomacy. As awareness grows of the interconnected and transnational nature of the challenges, it will emphasise solidarity actions that transcend national boundaries and make connections between different struggles in different contexts.

Even in difficult circumstances, civil society achieved some notable victories in 2024. In the Czech Republic, civil society’s efforts led to a landmark reform of rape laws, and in Poland they resulted in a law making emergency contraception available without prescription, overturning previous restrictive legislation. After extensive civil society advocacy, Thailand led the way in Southeast Asia by passing a marriage equality law, while Greece became the first predominantly Christian Orthodox country to legalise same-sex marriage

People defended democracy. In South Korea, people took to the streets in large numbers to resist martial law, while in Bangladesh, protest action led to the ousting of a longstanding authoritarian government. In Guatemala, a president committed to fighting corruption was sworn in after civil society organised mass protests to demand that powerful elites respect the election results, and in Venezuela, hundreds of thousands organised to defend the integrity of the election, defeated the authoritarian government in the polls and took to the streets in the face of severe repression when the results weren’t recognised. In Senegal, civil society mobilised to prevent an attempt to postpone an election that resulted in an opposition win.

Civil society won victories in climate and environmental litigation – including in Ecuador, India and Switzerland – to force governments to recognise the human rights impacts of climate change and do more to reduce emissions and curb pollution. Civil society also took to the courts to pressure governments to stop arms sales to Israel, with a successful verdict in the Netherlands and others pending.

In 2025, the struggle continues. Civil society will keep carrying the torch of hope that a more peaceful, just, equal and sustainable world is possible. This idea will remain as important as the tangible impact we’ll continue to achieve despite the difficult circumstances.

Andrew Firmin is Editor-in-Chief and Inés M. Pousadela is Senior Research Specialist at CIVICUS: World Alliance for Citizen Participation. The two are co-directors and writers for CIVICUS Lens and co-authors of the State of Civil Society Report.

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Targeting Transformative Disaster Risk Reduction in Asia-Pacific Subregions

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A volcano in Vanuatu was active in 2023. The county was affected by a 6.6 M earthquake in March 2023 and 7.4 M earthquake in December 2024. Credit: Unsplash/Sebastian Lio

BANGKOK, Thailand, Dec 23 2024 (IPS) – In December 2024, Vanuatu experienced yet another harrowing reminder of its vulnerability to disasters—a powerful 7.4 magnitude earthquake struck the Pacific nation’s capital, Port Vila, leaving 14 dead, over 200 injured, and thousands more affected.

The devastating earthquake, compounded by overnight aftershocks and disrupted essential services, highlights the precarious situation faced by countries already grappling with the impacts of climate change and natural disasters.

Vanuatu is emblematic of the cascading disasters that Pacific Island nations increasingly endure, where frequent earthquakes intersect with the escalating impacts of climate-induced hazards such as cyclones, rising sea levels, and coastal erosion accompanied by staggering loss and damage experienced by vulnerable populations and ecosystems.

With every fraction of a degree of warming, the region’s diverse subregions—from the icy peaks of the Third Pole to the low-lying islands of the Pacific—are encountering unparalleled climate risks.

Recognizing these unique challenges, ESCAP launched the 2024 Asia-Pacific Subregional Disaster Reports to customize the insights and recommendations from the flagship Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2023 to the distinct vulnerabilities and opportunities within each subregion.

Transformative insights: Shaping climate resilient futures

The 2024 subregional reports reveal escalating disaster risks across Asia and the Pacific, stressing that incremental actions are insufficient against intensifying climate impacts. East and North-East Asia has faced $2 trillion in economic losses and nearly half a million fatalities over five decades, with 2°C warming expected to exacerbate droughts, heatwaves, and floods in China, Mongolia and Korea, threatening urban centers and critical systems.

North and Central Asia faces growing multi-hazard risks in the Aral Sea Basin, where droughts, heatwaves, and floods will endanger agriculture and energy systems. In South-East Asia, nearly 100 per cent of the population is at risk of floods under 2°C warming, with the Mekong River Basin emerging as a persistent multi-hazard hotspot.

Pacific island nations face rising seas and stronger cyclones that erode coastlines, threaten biodiversity, and force communities to relocate, while South and South-West Asia grapples with glacial melt from the Third Pole, jeopardizing water security for 1.3 billion people.

Economic and social costs are mounting, with average annual losses (AAL) projected to rise under warming scenarios. East and North-East Asia’s AAL of $510 billion could increase further under 2°C warming, while the Pacific’s AAL exceeds $20 billion, with small island developing states like Vanuatu and Tonga suffering losses of over 21 per cent of GDP.

Despite these dire projections, the reports emphasize that investments in transformative adaptation—such as early warning systems, resilient infrastructure, and integrated climate policies—can mitigate risks and protect livelihoods across the region.

Early warning systems: A lifeline for resilience

A critical takeaway from the subregional reports is the transformative role of early warning systems (EWS) in disaster risk reduction. By providing timely and actionable information, these systems save lives and reduce economic losses. In South-East Asia, effective EWS could prevent $8.7 billion to $13.1 billion annually, while in the Pacific, they could avert $4 billion to $6 billion in damages each year.

EWS are especially vital in regions with complex multi-hazard risks, such as the Pacific small island developing States, where cyclones, floods, and sea-level rise intersect, and in South-East Asia, where urban flood risks are rapidly escalating.

For EWS to be fully effective, they must encompass four key pillars: risk knowledge, detection and monitoring, dissemination of warnings, and preparedness. Investments in these areas, combined with robust regional cooperation, can ensure that warnings reach the most vulnerable populations in time to act.

The reports highlight examples like impact-based forecasting in South and Southwest Asia and AI-powered risk assessments in China and Japan as transformative advancements in EWS implementation. These systems not only save lives but also help governments and communities reduce disaster recovery costs and safeguard economic stability.

Transboundary solutions: Collaborative action for shared risks

Transboundary risks like ocean-based hazards, inland water stress, and desertification demand collaborative solutions across regions.

1. Ocean-Based Climate Action:

Rising sea levels, intensified cyclones, and coastal erosion require collective efforts such as mangrove restoration and integrated coastal management. In the Pacific SIDS, ASEAN, and South-West Asia, platforms like the Pacific Resilience Partnership and Mekong Basin initiatives foster nature-based solutions to protect ecosystems and livelihoods.

2. Inland Water Systems:

The drying of the Aral Sea Basin in North and Central Asia highlights the importance of transboundary water-sharing agreements to combat drought and degradation. For Third Pole glacial melt, collaboration through the Third Pole Climate Forum is vital to safeguard water security for 1.3 billion people in South, South-West, and East Asia.

3. Desertification and Sand and Dust Storms:

Desertification and sand and dust storms (SDS) are accelerating across Asia. Countries like China, Mongolia, and Iran are advancing afforestation and land restoration, while regional frameworks promote sustainable land management to mitigate downstream impacts.

By prioritizing transboundary cooperation, countries can tackle shared risks, protect vulnerable communities, and build scalable solutions for resilience.

A call for transformative change

The 2024 subregional reports make it unequivocally clear: transformative, not incremental, adaptation is needed to combat the growing threats of climate change and disasters. This means embedding climate resilience in every sector—agriculture, energy, urban planning, and biodiversity conservation—while fostering regional cooperation to address transboundary risks.

By aligning local action with global frameworks like the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Paris Agreement, the Asia-Pacific region has an opportunity to lead the way in building a sustainable and resilient future. As ESCAP’s subregional reports demonstrate, the tools and knowledge are at hand. The time to act is now—before the risks become irreversible and the costs unmanageable.

Madhurima Sarkar-Swaisgood is Economic Affairs Officer, ESCAP & Sanjay Srivastava is Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP. Other co-authors include Leila Salarpour Goodarzi, Associate Economic Affairs Officer, ESCAP, Rusali Agrawal, Consultant, ESCAP, Naina Tanwar, Consultant, ESCAP, Madhurima Sarkar-Swaisgood, Economic Affairs Officer, ESCAP and Sanjay Srivastava, Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP.

IPS UN Bureau

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UNCCD COP16 Spotlights Drought But Fails to Agree on a Legally Binding Protocol

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Combating Desertification and Drought

COP16 in Riyadh launched a drought resilience initiative, which also saw contributions of over USD 12 billion for land restoration and drought resilience. Credit: IISD/ENB

COP16 in Riyadh launched a drought resilience initiative, which also saw contributions of over USD 12 billion for land restoration and drought resilience. Credit: IISD/ENB

RIYADH & HYDERABAD, Dec 17 2024 (IPS) – The 16th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD COP 16) concluded early hours of Saturday with a renewed focus on building drought resilience globally. However, the COP also failed to agree on bringing a legally binding drought protocol. Like the biodiversity and climate change COPs held earlier in the year, COP16 also failed to finish in time and ended by postponing several key decisions to COP17 scheduled to be held in 2026.

The COP started on December 2 in Riyadh, under the presidency of Saudi Arabia. On Saturday, in a press statement, Osama Faqeeha, Deputy Minister for Environment, Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture, and Advisor to the UNCCD COP16 Presidency, claimed that the conference was a resounding success because it had attracted the largest number of participants till date, representing diverse sectors.

“The Riyadh Action Agenda has already helped galvanize state and non-state actors around the world. However, COP16 in Riyadh is just the beginning of its impact, and Saudi Arabia’s UNCCD COP16 Presidency will continue to engage with everyone, from the investment community, NGOs and scientists to Indigenous Peoples and farmers, to maximize its lasting global legacy,” he said.

One of the biggest success stories scripted in Riyadh was the launch of a drought resilience initiative, which also saw contributions of over USD 12 billion for land restoration and drought resilience. Launching the initiative on the first day of the COP, Saudi Arabia announced it was contributing USD 150 million for its operationalization. The rest of the fund was pledged by the Arab Coordination Group, which has 22 member countries, including the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain. The initiative would aim to support 80 of the world’s most vulnerable countries to increase their capacity to combat the effects of drought and build their drought resilience.

“The Riyadh Global Drought Resilience Partnership will work to deliver a transformative shift in how drought is tackled around the world. Harnessing the collective impact of major global institutions will move drought management beyond reactive crisis response through enhancing early warning systems, financing, vulnerability assessments, and drought risk mitigation. This stands to be a landmark moment for combating international drought, and we are calling on countries, companies, organizations, scientists, NGOs, financial institutions and communities to join this pivotal partnership,” Faqeeha said.

AI For Combating Drought

As part of the Riyadh Action Agenda, Saudi Arabia’ also launched the International Drought Resilience Observatory (IDRO). This is the first artificial intelligence-driven global platform that will help countries assess and improve their ability to cope with more severe droughts. This innovative tool is an initiative of the International Drought Resilience Alliance (IDRA).

Saudi Arabia also announced the launch of an international sand and dust storm monitoring initiative. This effort, part of a regional early warning system, aims to complement existing efforts overseen by the World Meteorological Organization. Based in Jeddah, the Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System (SDS-WAS) increases the number of global World Meteorological Organization-affiliated nodes to four. Saudi Arabia also pledged $10 million in funding over the next five years to enhance early warning systems in countries currently unable to monitor for sand and dust storms.

However, despite their best efforts, the COP16 could not bring all negotiators to agree on its proposal of creating a legally binding treaty for action on drought. The protocol, if agreed upon, could have been a huge step forward, having the world’s first legally binding global treaty on drought, land degradation and desertification, equivalent to the UNFCCC’s Paris Agreement and the Global Biodiversity Framework.

Paving Greater Participation of Youths and IPLCs

Among the other decisions taken at the COP16 is the creation of a Youth Caucus and an Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities Caucus. Though a caucus within the COP has an advisory role without any voting power, it can help broaden the participation of the Indigenous people and provide an opportunity to them for lobbying for language concerning Indigenous issues in the future negotiation texts.

Reacting to the development, Jennifier Corpuz, leader of the International Indigenous Forum on Biodiversity (IIFB), an umbrella organization of Indigenous Peoples and local communities from seven global regions, said that it was a decision that had been long overdue.

“The decision by the UNCCD to support the development of a Terms of Reference for an Indigenous Peoples Caucus and a local communities caucus is a great development for enhancing rights-holder engagement in the work of the UNCCD. It is the last Rio Convention to support the establishment of an IP Caucus and the first to explicitly support a specific local community Caucus, so it is about time, even long overdue. The hope is that the new UNCCD IP and LC caucuses learn from the nest practices and enhanced participation arrangements established in the other Rio Conventions and avoid the mistakes,” Corpuz told IPS News.

UN Warns Against Business-As-Usual Approach

Meanwhile, throughout COP16 in Riyadh, the UNCCD released several major publications highlighting the urgency of tackling land degradation, desertification and drought. The UNCCD’s financial risk assessment flagged that presently there is a $278 billion annual shortfall in funding for land restoration and drought resilience and emphasized the urgent need for private sector engagement.

The UNCCD also issued a landmark report into the growing global expansion of drylands, finding three-quarters of the Earth’s land became permanently drier over the last three decades. In addition, the rate of land degradation has rapidly increased. As a result, there are now 1.6 billion hectares of degraded land instead of 1 billion hectares in 2015. This means the convention’s flagship program, Land Degradation Neutrality, which aims to restore all degraded land by 2023, now also urgently needs a greater level of efforts as there is now half a billion more hectares to be restored. If this was to be achieved, the parties must shun their business-as-usual approach and put greater focus on land restoration, said Ibrahim Thiaw, the Executive Secretary of UNCCD.

“Land Degradation Neutrality is an ambition that was adopted in 2015 based on the science and it is still valid. If we manage to achieve it as it was conceived in 2015, that is a big step forward. Unfortunately, with more recent studies and data, we realized that we need to restore even more land by 2030 than it was envisaged in 2015. It doesn’t change or diminish the importance of the decision made in 2015. Because now we have updated science, we know that we need to restore 1.5 billion hectares of land instead of 1 billion hectares by 2030 in order to have equilibrium in the world. So basically, we have science to tell the decision-makers of the world that business as usual does not work,” Thiaw told IPS News.

The next UNCCD COP will be held in 2026 under the presidency of the Government of Mongolia. With the most ambitious of the decision—a global drought protocol—left unreached, onus is now on the UN to build a consensus among parties on a global drought agreement before they convene at COP17.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

‘We Will Not Go Quietly Into the Rising Sea,’ Tuvalu Tells International Court of Justice

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Climate Change Justice

Territorial integrity is not limited to physical land territory. It must be conceived as of a historical and cultural norm linked to the vitality, dignity and identity of the people holding the right to self-determination to ensure respect for territorial integrity goes beyond ensuring the maintenance of physical land boundaries—Professor Phillipa Webb

Water floods in, showing how nature and people are at risk. Trees can’t grow because of salt, leaving no protection. This photo warns about climate change’s effect on our islands and atolls. It’s a clear sign we need to act to keep our world safe. Credit: Gitty Keziah Yee/Tuvalu

THE HAGUE, Dec 13 2024 (IPS) – Rising sea level caused by greenhouse gas emission-fueled climate change is threatening existence in coastal communities and island nations. At the International Court of Justice (ICJ), on Thursday, December 12, 2024, small island states, including Tuvalu and a Pacific-based fisheries agency detailed their ongoing existential threats caused by the climate change-induced sea level rise and impacts on fishery-based livelihood.

Tuvalu, the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) and the Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency (FFA) both focused their oral presentations before the court on highlighting added and exacerbated struggles faced by people in the region through visual evidence and testimony of the frontline community.

At the request of Vanuatu, the UN General Assembly asked the ICJ to issue an advisory opinion on the obligations of UN member states in preventing climate change and ensuring the protection of the environment for present and future generations. While its advisory opinion will not be enforceable, the court will advise on the legal consequences for member states who have caused significant harm, particularly to small island developing states. So far, more than 100 countries and agencies have presented their case before the court.

On Thursday, island states stressed the disproportionate effects of climate change on small islands, urging the court to recognize the duty of cooperation, the stability of maritime zones, and the principle of continuity of statehood.

Climate Crisis Can not be Solved in Isolation—Tuvalu

Tuvalu, a small island nation in the South Pacific with over 11,000 people, emphasized its right to self-determination and territorial integrity at a time when it is facing an existential threat from climate change-induced sea level rise.

The low-lying island nation of Tuvalu is fighting for its existence; according to scientists, much of their land area, along with critical infrastructure, will be under water by 2050. Tuvalu urged the ICJ to issue a strong advisory opinion on states’ obligations to combat climate change and protect small island states.

Furthering the submission, Laingane Italeli Talia, Attorney General of Tuvalu, said climate change is the single greatest threat the country is facing. “It cannot be that in the face of such unprecedented and irreversible harm, international law is silent.

“Tuvalu, accordingly, asks the court to keep the unprecedented infringement on our people’s right to self-determination at the very center of his critical advisory opinion in order to help chart the pathway forward for our very survival.”

‘Annihilation Posed By Nuclear Weapons’ 

Professor Phillipa Webb, representing Tuvulu, used the analogy that the threat of disappearance faced by states like Tuvalu is like the potential annihilation posed by nuclear weapons.

“This extreme circumstance triggers all the tools that international law provides for respecting statehood, ensuring territorial integrity and protecting sovereignty over natural resources,” Webb said.

“Tuvalu’s constitution affirms that its statehood will remain in perpetuity, notwithstanding any loss to its physical territory. In the same way that the right to survival requires state continuity, the right also compels respect for territorial integrity, which encompasses a state’s permanent sovereignty over its natural resources,” Webb said, drawing on the drawing on the Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States.

“Respect for territorial integrity and territorial sovereignty is an essential foundation of international relations in the context of climate change. This obliges States to prevent and mitigate transboundary environmental harm. It requires that States facilitate adaptation to climate change impacts, and these measures should not be limited to the preservation and restoration of coasts and islands but also to protecting the rights of peoples to self-determination.”

The right to self-determination includes aspects other than physical land, and the court should take this into account.

“Territorial integrity, a corollary of the right to self-determination, is not limited to physical land territory. It must be conceived as a historical and cultural norm linked to the vitality, dignity and identity of the people holding the right to self-determination to ensure respect for territorial integrity goes beyond ensuring the maintenance of physical land boundaries. Like other concepts in international law, such as cultural heritage, biodiversity and intellectual property, it covers tangible and intangible assets.”

Quoting Tuvaluan climate activist Grace Malie, Webb told the court, “Tuvalu will not go quietly into the rising sea.”

Statehood Should be Ensured—AOSIS

AOSIS submitted its case on behalf of the 39 small island and low-lying coastal developing states and urged it to consider the existential threat posed by climate change-induced sea level rise and the possibility that some states may not even have dry land in the near future.

It emphasizes the importance of equity and self-determination in the context of climate change and the need for international law to support the continuity of statehood and sovereignty.

Fatumanava-o-Upolu III Dr. Pa’olelei Luteru, Chair of AOSIS and Permanent Representative of Samoa to the United Nations, focused on the impact of the climate crisis on states defined by the ocean’s limited resources and geographic vulnerability.

“Small island developing states rely heavily on coastal and marine resources as key drivers of our economies,” he said. “However, climate change is disrupting the fishery sector because of warming waters and an altered marine environment.”

The AOSIS asked the court to uphold the principle of continuity of statehood as established in international law, ensuring that statehood and sovereignty endure despite physical changes to land territory.

Luteru added, “In this era of unprecedented and relentless sea level rise, international law must evolve to meet the climate crisis and the disproportionate effect that it has on states.”

Focus on Sustainability of Tuna Fisheries—FFA

Rising sea level and ocean warming are not only threatening the existence of island nations but they are also hammering a major way of livelihood, fishing. Representing the fishing community at the ICJ, FFA highlighted the state of loss of fisheries, including tuna.

Tuna fisheries are crucial for the economic, social, and cultural development of Pacific Island communities, with 47 percent of households depending on fishing as a primary or secondary source of income.

FFA, an intergovernmental agency, focuses on sustainable use of offshore fisheries resources, particularly tuna, which are facing threats to climate change impacts.

“Damage to fisheries and loss of fish stocks will have a significant negative impact on the income, livelihoods, food security and economies of Pacific small island developing states, as well as social and cultural impacts,” Pio Manoa, Deputy Director General of FFA, said.

“Climate change is driving tuna further to the east and outside of members, exclusive economic zones into the high seas, threatening the loss of economic and food security of Pacific small and developing states.”

Studies show climate change-driven redistribution of commercial tuna species will cause an economic blow to the small island states of the Western and Central Pacific, ultimately threatening the sustainability of the world’s largest tuna fishery.

By 2050, under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, the total biomass of three tuna species in the waters of 10 of the Pacific small islands developing states members of the agency could decline by an average of 13 percent.

“The adverse consequences for the livelihood and well-being of coastal communities are profound, including their very security and survival impacts on marine resources, including offshore fisheries such as tuna,” Manoa said. “It is therefore incumbent upon the international community to take necessary action to deal with anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and their consequences.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

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