Arab Region Leaders, Experts Gather to Find Solutions to Water Scarcity, Sustainable Development

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Population

Forum of Arab Parliamentarians on Population and Development met in Bahrain to to address water scarcity. Credit: APDA

Forum of Arab Parliamentarians on Population and Development met in Bahrain to to address water scarcity. Credit: APDA

MANAMA & NAIROBI, Nov 7 2024 (IPS) – The Arab region is among the most water-scarce areas globally, as nearly 392 million people live in countries facing water scarcity or absolute water scarcity. So dire is the situation that, of the 22 Arab countries, 19 fall below the annual threshold for water scarcity in renewable resources, defined as 1,000 cubic meters per person.

Worst still, 13 countries fall below the absolute water scarcity threshold of 500 cubic meters per person per year. Water scarcity in the Arab region poses a serious challenge, threatening the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals and the realization of the fundamental human right to access water and sanitation. 

It is within this context that the Forum of Arab Parliamentarians on Population and Development, in collaboration with the Asian Population and Development Association in Japan and with support from the United Nations Population Fund, held a meeting on October 26, 2024, in the Kingdom of Bahrain to address water scarcity as a development concern and promote coordinated action across different sectors.

Dr. Mohamed Al-Samadi, Secretary-General of the Forum of Arab Parliamentarians on Population and Development, stressed the need for coordinated governance and measures to close the gap between water security and the Sustainable Development Goals. The gathering that included Bahraini parliamentarians from committees focused on population and development, along with representatives from civil society organizations, experts, academics, and government officials.

The gathering reiterated that “researchers in the field of water science have set the water poverty line at 500 cubic meters per person annually, while 1,000 cubic meters of freshwater per person is considered the threshold for achieving water security. Reports also link this to food security, showing that producing an individual’s annual food supply requires over 2,000 cubic meters of water.

Lawmakers and experts stressed the need for coordinated governance and measures to close the gap between water security and the Sustainable Development Goals. Credit: APDA

Lawmakers and experts stressed the need for coordinated governance and measures to close the gap between water security and the Sustainable Development Goals. Credit: APDA

Stressing that the “water security in the Arab world is now critically at stake as annual usable water resources fall below 40 billion cubic meters. A large portion of these resources is lost to evaporation and infiltration into the soil, and additional amounts are necessary to sustain river flows to their endpoints. Any country that uses 40 percent or more of its total annual water resources is considered to be facing severe water scarcity according to the Water Scarcity Index, also known as the Water Sustainability Index.”

Dr. Muneer Ibrahim, a Member of Parliament and member of the Committee on Water, Environment, and Public Utilities, spoke about water security and the SDGs, emphasizing that water is the fundamental pillar for achieving these global goals across their economic, social, and environmental dimensions, as water security is an essential requirement for their realization.

Further stressing that the relationship between water and sustainable development is reciprocal, and this interconnectedness poses significant challenges in the Arab region, especially given the current water situation. Necessitating the development and implementation of effective policies and solutions to ensure sustainable water resources for various uses.

Hassan Ibrahim, a Member of Parliament and the rapporteur for the Water Committee, spoke about innovation for sustainable water management, highlighting that resolving the water crisis is essential for a livable future on our planet. Noting that whether water is overly abundant, severely scarce, or highly polluted, it presents a triple threat exacerbated by climate change, depriving billions of people of access to clean, safe water and sanitation services.

He said that this then “threatens economies, encourages migration, and may fuel conflict. We need global action to establish water security to enable inclusive and resilient green growth while addressing the interconnected relationship between water, climate, and conflict. Despite the progress made, we are falling behind in achieving the SDGs related to water, which directly affect inclusive development.”

Current trends indicate that by 2030, 1.6 billion people will lack access to safe drinking water, 2.8 billion will be deprived of safe sanitation services, and 1.9 billion will be without basic hygiene facilities. Globally, the investment needs for the water sector exceed USD 1.37 trillion and must increase sixfold from current levels to meet the sixth SDG on ensuring availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all by 2030.

“Water accounts for less than 2 percent of public spending, and private investment levels in this sector are also low in low- and middle-income countries. Bahrain has adopted strategies and initiatives to improve the management of water resources, support the strategic water stock, and increase the area and sustainability of rainwater harvesting efficiency to enhance natural groundwater resources,” Ibrahim said.

Bahrain is implementing advanced technical solutions to utilize treated wastewater for irrigation needs, which also helps reduce environmental pollution, address the impacts of climate change, and minimize the depletion of natural water resources. Bahrain, through the Water Security Strategy 2030 launched by the Ministry of Energy and Environment, aims to ensure the sustainability and continuity of access to water under both normal conditions and extreme emergencies.

The key targets of the strategy include reducing total water resource demand by 21 percent, increasing the water productivity index to USD 110 per cubic meter, lowering the water scarcity index by three degrees, and raising the percentage of treated water reuse to 95 percent. Dr. Walid Zubari, a water resources expert and president of the Arab Water Association, presented on the vital role of civil society institutions in raising water awareness to achieve water sustainability and address the challenges facing the water sector in Bahrain.

Regarding civil society institutions, Dr. Zubari said, “It is important for them to play a role in water awareness. Once community members understand the implications of their behavior in dealing with water and there is a religious and moral incentive, it is likely that they will voluntarily rationalize their water usage. If this happens, the community and the executors will be in the same boat, enabling them to achieve water sustainability.”

Dr. Karim Rashid, Member of Parliament, delivered a comprehensive presentation on the importance of water and its essential role in supporting sustainable development, as water impacts all aspects of development and is closely linked to nearly every SDG, driving economic growth, supporting healthy ecosystems, and being essential for life itself.

Still, nearly two billion people worldwide lack access to safely managed drinking water services, while around 3.6 billion suffer from inadequate sanitation services. To enable effective climate change adaptation, he said activities should reflect the importance of water management in reducing vulnerability to risks and building resilience against climate change.

Further emphasizing the necessity of political commitment and leadership, technological innovations, and the advancement of service delivery models and financing to support governments in fulfilling their commitment to achieve Target 6.2 of the SDGs—”to ensure access for all to adequate and equitable sanitation and hygiene services by 2030.”

The expert and water sector advisor at the Ministry of Water in the Kingdom of Bahrain, Eng. Mohammed Sawar, called for adopting a model transformation in the management of water resources in the GCC countries, shifting from the current focus on “supply sustainability” to “consumption sustainability.” Emphasizing economic efficiency in water usage and financial sustainability of water services.

Note: This meeting was supported by the Asian Population and Development Association (APDA), the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and the Japan Trust Fund (JTF).

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

How Blue Carbon Ecosystems are Saving the Philippines’ Sinking Islands

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Opinion

Submerged structure in Tubigon, Philippines. Credit: Greenpeace

 
In the Philippines, a group of islands is rapidly sinking due to an unprecedented rise in sea levels. This blog dives into how these coastal communities are utilizing marine resources and ecosystems to find solutions and build resilience against climate risks.

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia, Nov 6 2024 (IPS) – Imagine living with water up to your knees for half of the year, where homes are flooded, and people constantly fear that the sea might one day engulf the town and everyone in it.

This is the reality for the sinking islands in the Philippines—a cluster of four island barangays in Tubigon located in the south-central region of Bohol. Here, the sea level is rising at an alarming rate of 10.8 millimeters per year, three times faster than the global average. If this continues, these islands could disappear by 2100.

Tubigon sank by one meter after being hit by a 7.2 magnitude earthquake over a decade ago. While still recovering, the islands were devastated by a super typhoon in 2021, unleashing four-meter-high tidal waves that destroyed over 1.7 million homes and displaced more than 3 million people. This year, the islands were declared inhabitable by the government.

Existential Climate Threats to Coastal Communities

Coastal communities like the Philippines are severely threatened by accelerating sea level rise compounded by extreme weather events. Similar to small island developing states, also known as SIDS, low-lying coastal areas are the most vulnerable to climate change.

Their geographic location leaves them highly-exposed to natural disasters and hazards like cyclones and tidal flooding. These vulnerabilities exacerbate coastal communities’ unique development challenges.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that with the current 1.5 degree temperature increase, global sea levels will continue to rise and low-lying coastal regions are to experience extreme sea events such as storm surges and massive tides annually by 2050.

SIDS, including Tuvalu and the Maldives, along with the sinking islands of Tubigon, are proof of the existential threats of climate change. These communities are at risk of vanishing unless urgent action is taken.

Bouncing Back from Climate Risks

While island communities are under threat, they are not powerless. Many of them have shown commitment to addressing climate-related risks in their national climate action plans. Their goal is to build climate resilience.

The term “resilience” is often mentioned in climate change discussions, but what does it really mean? It comes from the Latin verb resilire, meaning “to bounce back.” Resilience refers to the ability to recover from risks, which, in the context of climate change, is determined by the degree of vulnerability and exposure to climate-related threats.

For coastal communities and low-lying islands, rising sea levels pose a significant risk, so they must build resilience to endure and recover from climate-related hazards and disasters.

Turning to Blue Carbon Ecosystems for Solutions

Many SIDS set a good example in piloting measures to build resilience and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Similarly, the residents of Tubigon, many of whom are fisherfolks, have learned to adapt to the rising tides.

The local community has developed resilience strategies and initiatives to help them sustain their lives on the islands. One promising solution involves utilizing the sea and its resources, part of what is called the blue carbon ecosystem.

Blue carbon ecosystem is a collective term for natural marine resources such as mangroves, seagrasses, and marshes known for their ability to capture and store carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Research shows that these coastal resources can transfer and store carbon ten times more effective than tropical forests.

These ecosystems also support fishery production, protect shorelines and reduce flooding, and provide habitats for wildlife and migratory species. Studies indicate that conserving blue carbon ecosystems is a timely and cost-effective strategy to help coastal communities adapt to climate change.

Harnessing Coastal Resources for Climate Change Adaptation

Tubigon and the Bohol region have long implemented measures to protect their blue carbon ecosystems, helping residents adapt to climate-related risks. Their strategy is two-fold: eliminating destructive fishing practices and conserving coastal resources particularly mangroves.

The local community has designated bantay dagat (which translates literally to sea protectors) to patrol its marine area spanning 156 hectares of coral reefs and 335 hectares of mangroves. These protectors report illegal fishing activities and safeguard the mangrove forests.

Over time, many locals have transitioned from destructive fishing methods, such as dynamite and cyanide use, to more sustainable aquaculture and alternative livelihoods, including crab and squid jigging, grouper farming, and ecotourism.

Moreover, particular focus is given to mangrove conservation. The vast mangrove area in Tubigon is considered a valuable blue ecosystem resource playing an important role in sequestering carbon. Experts estimate that a 4-decade mangrove plantation can store over 370 tons of carbon per hectare.

Additionally, mangroves act as natural seawalls, reducing wave energy and shielding residents from rising sea levels and tidal flooding. By investing in the preservation of blue carbon ecosystems, coastal communities like Tubigon tap into an essential resource that supports their livelihoods and enhances their resilience to the effects of climate change.

Turning the Tide

The islands of Tubigon stay afloat amidst the intensifying battle against climate threats. Most recently, the Philippines joined an alliance to build the resilience of coastal communities. It was also selected as the host of a fund dedicated to supporting countries to respond to loss and damage, enabling them to recover and rebuild from the adverse effects of the climate crisis.

Allowing islands to sink and entire communities to disappear is unimaginable, especially when we have the resources and tools to address the planet’s most significant crisis. Time is running out, but there is still hope to turn the tide.

This article is originally published in Global Dev as part of its Climate Resilience series.

Anne Cortez is a communications and knowledge management consultant with over a decade of experience working with governments, academic institutions, and international organizations including the UN, ADB, and The Asia Foundation. She has spearheaded and managed development programs and capacity building initiatives promoting climate action, digital inclusion, and health equity across Asia and the Pacific. Previously, she led the knowledge and communications team at the UN think tank for global health based in Malaysia, and the social mobilization division at the Department of Education in the Philippines. Anne has a master’s degree in international studies and an undergraduate degree in communications. Learn more about her work here.

IPS UN Bureau

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Voices from the Margins: Small-Scale Fishers Demand Rights, Recognition at COP16

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COP16

Small-scale fishers on the coast of Kerela, India with a variety of fish and prawns. Credit: Aishwarya Bajpai/IPS

Small-scale fishers on the coast of Kerela, India with a variety of fish and prawns. Credit: Aishwarya Bajpai/IPS

CALI, Columbia & DELHI, Nov 5 2024 (IPS) – Small-scale fishers play a fundamental role in feeding people—they use sustainable methods of catching and processing fish products and are a significant force in the employment and livelihoods of millions of people internationally—yet, until now, they have been excluded from climate and biodiversity conferences.

For the first time at COP 16, which closed in Cali, Colombia, on November 1, fishworkers, the most vulnerable small-scale fishers communicated that they seek active participation in decision-making processes that affect the oceans. It seems their message was heard because before the negotiations were suspended, parties adopted a historic decision to open the door for Indigenous Peoples and local communities to influence the global plan to halt the destruction of biodiversity.

Small-scale fisheries provide essential employment and sustenance across the globe, as highlighted in the Illuminating Hidden Harvests: The Contributions of Small-Scale Fisheries to Sustainable Development report (2023). Based on data from 78 national household surveys, around 60.2 million people were employed part- or full-time along the small-scale fishing value chain in 2016, representing nearly 90 percent of all global employment in the industry.

Of these, 27.5 million worked directly in harvesting, with 14.6 million engaged in inland and 12.9 million in marine fisheries. Women play a central role in small-scale fisheries, making up 35 percent of the workforce (around 20.9 million) and almost half (49.8 percent) of those in post-harvest roles.

Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, fisherpeople conference held in Cali, Columbia. Credit: Aishwarya Bajpai/IPS.

Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, fisherpeople conference held in Cali, Columbia. Credit: Aishwarya Bajpai/IPS.

This sector supports 113 million workers, who, along with their 378.7 million household members, make up a community of 491.7 million people reliant on these fisheries. Together, they represent 6.6 percent of the world’s population and 13.2 percent of those living in the 45 least developed countries. Despite the scale of their contributions, small-scale fishworkers remain among the most vulnerable populations.

These communities face entrenched poverty and social hardships, exacerbated by multiple challenges.

Environmental shifts—such as changing ecological cycles, biodiversity loss, fish diseases, and habitat degradation—disrupt their resources and directly impact their livelihoods. Economic pressures, including the modernization of fisheries, Blue Economy infrastructure projects, and port construction, threaten to marginalize these communities further.

Minfer Pervez, a Colombian fishworker speaking at a press conference in Cali, put it succinctly:

“I represent small-scale fishers. We face displacement and violations of our rights—the right to dignified work, access to social security, health services, and economic resources to strengthen small-scale fishing communities. We are also exploited due to pollution and hydrocarbons in the sea. Today, we call for a unified government position that includes us in decision-making and participation because we are key to conservation efforts.”

And it was clear these issues were faced by small-scale fishers around the globe.

A fish worker from Madina, Colombia, said the threats faced were often from mining and similar industries.

“The main threat we face is the proliferation of extractive industries, which intrude into our areas and damage the coastal system. This jeopardizes the productivity of fisher people and threatens food security. Governance must be returned to and entrusted to small-scale fishers and communities.”

Alfonso Simon from Panama added that declarations were often imposed upon them without their involvement or consent.

When asked about human rights in the context of small-scale representatives, a fisher from Panama who identified herself as Marta explained: “Our rights are violated when decisions are made without prior consultation or citizenship recognition. We are forcefully displaced, and when our families migrate from fishing areas, we lose not only our physical space but also our cultural identity, customs, and future. Denying us access to the sea and the right to fish, which is our ancestral practice, undermines both our food security and that of others (who do not fish). We feel vulnerable because decisions are made without considering the voices of our people. Small-scale fishers must be part of decision-making processes.”

On society, conservation, and development, Zoila Bustamante from Chile said, “Representing a geographical point on Earth, we must be heard. We are not only representing this region but also millions of small-scale fishers globally. We feed you, and it is important for you to listen to us. We represent several countries, and goal 23, which pertains to artisanal fishing, is being addressed. We want to be involved in drafting policies and decisions about us, not have others speak on our behalf.”

German Hernander from Honduras, speaking for 2 million fisher people, explained, “We are well organized and want our voices heard at the UN and other global platforms. We don’t want others speaking for us because we know our territories best and are better equipped to take part in global events and activities.”

Small-scale fishers are key to conservation, Eduardo Mercado from Panama said.

“We represent fisher people around the world and use ancestral fishing methods, including nets that do not damage the environment. We avoid fishing species that are reproducing and only fish for what we eat. Sadly, small-scale fishing is coming to an end.”

Aaron Chacon from Costa Rica added, “As artisanal fishermen, I believe we are here to pass the torch to the next generation. The future of artisanal fishing lies with young people, and this is an opportunity for us to preserve our culture and protect it for future generations.”

Libia Arcinieges from Colombia explained that this went beyond the seas.

“On behalf of fishworkers, we call on governments to respect and return our fishing territories. This is vital for the sustainability of water bodies and food sovereignty. Rivers and lagoons feed the world, and continental territories support 500 million people.”

Despite the acknowledgement of huge challenges, there was also an understanding that COP16 had opened doors.

“We must celebrate COP 16 because, for the first time, we have a platform to raise our voices. Conservation begins in rural territories. Real conservation is done by people, and it is necessary to guarantee food security. We must ensure good species management and work towards the 2030 goals. We deserve the proper treatment for our efforts in achieving these goals. Conservation cannot coexist with hunger,” said Luis Perez from Colombia.

This was crucial because Indigenous people and small-scale fishers look after the earth; their practices are sustainable.

“Conservation is the result of nature’s use and management by Indigenous people and small-scale fishers. It is not something that comes after the fact but is embedded in our practices. Problems cannot be solved by megaprojects. Evidence shows that the best conservation is done at the local level, and it is managed by Indigenous and local communities. We must not shy away from discussing this. We have a strong relationship with our territories, and our governance capacities lead to real conservation results,” Albert Chan from Mexico’s Maya Community said.

The fishworkers were emphatic—their representation may have been ignored until now, but they would continue to ensure their voices were heard. Their voices at COP16 underscore the determination of small-scale fishworkers worldwide to claim their place in global decision-making forums—a place where they have historically been absent, despite their role as the ocean’s frontline stewards.

Through their collective call for active participation, respect for territorial rights, and recognition of their contribution to sustainable fisheries, they have highlighted the urgent need for inclusive and equitable governance of ocean resources.

The conference ended with the saying, ‘Artisanal fishing is here to stay, and from now on, we will participate in all events, one way or another!’

The voices at COP 16 underscore the determination of small-scale fishworkers worldwide to claim their place in global decision-making forums—a place where they have historically been absent, despite their role as the ocean’s frontline stewards. Through their collective call for active participation, respect for territorial rights, and recognition of their contribution to sustainable fisheries, they have spotlighted the urgent need for inclusive and equitable governance of ocean resources.

As the world confronts the intersecting crises of climate change, biodiversity loss, and food insecurity, it is clear that the sustainable practices and ancestral knowledge held by small-scale fishers and Indigenous communities are indispensable to conservation and global food security.

Their call is not just for policy inclusion but for a fundamental shift that respects their lived realities, cultural heritage, and essential role in preserving marine ecosystems. With this historic milestone, small-scale fishers have opened a new chapter of advocacy that seeks not only acknowledgment but also partnership in building a sustainable and resilient future for the oceans and the communities that depend on them.

IPS UN Bureau Report

IPS UN Bureau, IPS UN Bureau Report, Cali, Columbia, COP16,

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Democracy’s Dilemma: Can We Overcome Short-Termism to Build Lasting Peace?

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Opinion

‘Endless nightmare’ of death and destruction in Gaza, UN officials tell Security Council. July 2024. Credit: UNRWA

GENEVA, Nov 4 2024 (IPS) – While the expansion of democracy is a key condition for peace, the Achilles’ heel of democracies is that their leaders are constrained by electoral calendars, forcing them to push for peace or delay, whereas autocracies can afford to play the long game to achieve the favorable outcomes they desire.

Take, for example, the current wars in Ukraine and the Middle East: U.S. leadership may be influenced by the approaching November elections, skewing policy decisions, while autocratic leaders of rival powers can be confident in their long-term tenure.

To be clear, this does not suggest that we should abolish democracy. Quite the opposite—more democracy and more bottom-up scrutiny of leaders are needed, as outlined below.

Short-termism lies at the heart of several misconceptions within Western democracies that complicate peacebuilding efforts. One such misconception is the “better the devil you know” mentality, which has long been used to justify support for brutal regimes in exchange for short-term gains.

From the Cold War to the present, global powers have backed dictators and militias, prioritizing strategic influence over human rights. For instance, Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi, once an international outcast, was quickly embraced by Western leaders after making some concessions.

However, such cynical realpolitik is not only morally wrong but counterproductive. Supporting autocrats for short-term diplomatic or economic gains only fuels anti-Western sentiment. Recent research shows that U.S. military aid to dubious regimes has often backfired, leading to more, not fewer, terrorist attacks from those nations. Instead of supporting despots, Western nations should focus on promoting long-term peace through jobs, representation, and security.

These are the true foundations of stability, and investing in them is far more effective than cutting deals with dictators. In the end, helping to build peaceful societies is a far better investment than propping up corrupt regimes.

Short-termism has also frequently prompted leaders to prioritize quick cash transfers—often subject to embezzlement—over policies that enhance long-term economic productivity and resilience in fragile countries. The belief that financial aid can “buy” peace is a common misconception.

Peace cannot simply be bought; it must be “invested in” through the development of human capital and productive capacities. Large sums of money, like oil revenues, often fuel corruption and conflict in unstable states. Countries such as Venezuela, Sudan and Nigeria have suffered from the “resource curse,” where abundant resources become a source of instability rather than prosperity.

Similarly, foreign aid, when poorly managed, can have unintended negative consequences. Studies indicate that U.S. food aid can sometimes exacerbate conflict in recipient regions, as armed groups divert resources for their own benefit. This is not to say that Western democracies should abandon aid. Instead, they should focus on smarter investments in education and healthcare, which reduce incentives for violence.

Human capital cannot be stolen, and improvements in education and health increase employment opportunities, diminishing the motivation for conflict. Investing in people is the best path to sustainable peace.

A third common misconception in conflict resolution is that winning over “hearts and minds” should come first, with security following later. This is again driven by short-termism, as providing services may be quicker than establishing security. The theory is that by providing amenities and increasing local support, tensions will ease. However, this approach rarely works in practice.

When people’s basic safety is at risk, they prioritize security over services or political ideals. Research in places like Iraq shows that security and basic infrastructure must be established first—without them, no other policy can succeed. For instance, the Dayton Agreement in Bosnia successfully ended a brutal war and prevented its resurgence, largely thanks to international peacekeepers.

Offering security guarantees to all parties is essential for bringing armed factions to the negotiating table and laying the groundwork for lasting peace. Without security, efforts to win hearts and minds are doomed to fail.

After examining these misconceptions that jeopardize peace efforts, my new book, The Peace Formula: Voice, Work, and Warranties, Not Violence, outlines the solid fundamentals for achieving sustainable peace in the long term, based on hundreds of empirical studies.

First, there is a growing body of evidence that a democratic voice makes a crucial difference. When citizens have political rights, civil liberties, and their preferences are considered, their incentives for violent attacks on the state diminish.

Every regime in history has eventually felt the need to extend political rights or collapsed. Even autocratic Rome was forced to extend citizenship beyond Italy to survive for a few more centuries. Long-term stability and peace are impossible when citizens are treated as slaves.

Similarly, a strong and productive economy is another prerequisite for lasting peace. Having a fulfilling, well-paid job makes it much less tempting to join a warlord or enlist as a volunteer in a brutal war. These higher opportunity costs of abandoning work for warfare form the second pillar of sustainable peace and stability.

Finally, security guarantees are crucial. When the state lacks a monopoly on legitimate violence over its territory, power vacuums typically give rise to warlords, organized crime, and insurgents that challenge state authority. Consider the rise of the mafia in historical Sicily or the situation in Somalia today. Security is one of humanity’s basic needs, and if a state is too weak to provide it, UN peacekeeping troops must be ready to step in when invited.

If the academic literature increasingly provides clear answers on what needs to be done, why then are the components of a peace formula not consistently implemented? While we can point to successful examples of post-conflict reconstruction, such as Germany and Japan after World War II, the list of failed states and aborted democratization efforts is equally long.

The problem can be reduced to the concept of “smart idealism.” It isn’t rocket science. The issue with “smart idealism” is twofold. First, the “smart” aspect is relatively new. Many of the scientific insights underpinning the above arguments—such as the failure of supporting bad regimes and the importance of human capital—are based on cutting-edge research. Only recently has empirical evidence shown that cash handouts can backfire and that “winning hearts and minds” is futile without basic security.

Second, the “idealism” aspect is a tough sell. Peacebuilding is a long-term commitment that requires significant investments. After World War II, the Allies transformed Germany, Japan, and Italy into functioning democracies, but it came at a steep financial cost. The fear of another world war motivated these efforts.

Today, however, few political leaders are willing to commit such resources to nations like Somalia, where the political payoff is uncertain, and re-election prospects at home may be harmed. Additionally, most politicians operate within short-term electoral cycles, bringing us back to the issue of “short-termism.”

Their incentives favor projects with immediate returns, not long-term peace investments that would benefit their successors. In the short term, shady deals with despots may seem politically advantageous, even if they prove disastrous later.

Are these roadblocks insurmountable, or can we do something about them? Yes, we can! Rather than relying solely on elected officials to make the right choices, civil society must apply pressure, advocating for democracy globally. Ordinary citizens have historically driven positive change—think of the movements that dismantled South African apartheid.

Despite global setbacks in democracy over the past decade, fighting for sound, evidence-based policies remain essential. Democracies may falter, but they have an extraordinary capacity to recover, drawing on the remnants of past democratic capital, as Argentina’s history demonstrates. As Abraham Lincoln famously noted, “Those who shall have tasted actual freedom I believe can never be slaves, or quasi slaves again.”

Dominic Rohner is a globally recognized authority on armed conflict and peacebuilding. He serves as Professor of Economics at the Geneva Graduate Institute, where he holds the prestigious André Hoffmann Chair in Political Economics and Governance, and is also a Professor at the University of Lausanne. He holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Cambridge, and his pioneering work has earned multiple international awards and accolades.

IPS UN Bureau

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Is India Phasing Out Fossil Fuels Fast Enough To Achieve Its Emission Targets?

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Climate Change

Wind turbines overlooking Vyas Chhatri, traditional architecture of Jasalmer district in Rajasthan. Credit: Athar Parvaiz/IPS

Wind turbines overlooking Vyas Chhatri, traditional architecture of Jasalmer district in Rajasthan. Credit: Athar Parvaiz/IPS

NEW DELHI, Nov 4 2024 (IPS) – While India continues to rely heavily on coal, the south Asian economic giant is also aggressively pushing renewable energy production, especially after the costs of renewable energy production have fallen drastically in recent years around the world.

But experts say that India—the world’s third largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs)—has to face many headwinds for achieving its net zero target by 2070 and before that, reaching the target of a 45 percent reduction in GHG emission intensity by 2030 from 2005 levels. 

According to the experts, addressing the gaps in policies and strategies are some of the main measures India needs to take for a rapid transition to renewable energy sources. But most of them believe phasing out fossil fuels such as coal appears to be a daunting task for India given its huge reliance on them. India ratified the Paris Agreement on Climate Change in 2016, committing to limit the global average temperature rise to below 2°C by the end of the century.

As part of its first Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), India had pledged to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity of its economy by 33–35 percent by 2030 from 2005 levels. In August 2022, the Indian government revised its NDCs, raising its ambition to a 45% reduction in GHG emission intensity by 2030 from 2005 levels.

The south Asian country has also pledged to become carbon-neutral or achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2070, an announcement made by the Indian government in 2021 during CoP 26 in UK. According to the UN Climate Change Executive Secretary, Simon Stiell, Decarbonisation is the biggest transformation of the global economy of this century.

Coal to Stay ‘For India’s Development’  

Presently, the contribution of coal for India’s energy generation is 72 percent and accounts for 65 percent of its fossil fuel CO2 emissions. The contribution of coal for energy generation in India, say the experts, is not going to change anytime soon.

“Coal cannot be removed from India’s energy mix in the next 20 years. We require coal because we need a development-led transition, not a transition-led development,” said Amit Garg, a professor at Indian Institute of Management (IIM), Ahmedabad-Gujarat.  “We can adopt new technologies and try new ways, but we in India cannot eradicate coal just yet.”

Anjan Kumar Sinha, an energy expert who is the technical director of Intertek, told IPS that energy security in India is currently dependent on coal and would take time for its phasing out given how the country is yet to be ready for a rapid phase-out of coal, which is currently extremely important for India’s energy security.

“In phasing it out, we have to improve flexible operations of coal-based plants for electricity dispatch, especially with increasing levels of renewable energy,” he said.

According to Sinha, coal being an important energy resource which India has, “we need to wash its sins” with a continuous increase in production of renewables.  India, Sinha said, “has to save itself… it can’t leave it to the rest of the world.”

India has been hailed for the progress the country has achieved in its clean energy transition in recent years. The Indian government aims to increase non-fossil fuel capacity to 500 GW and source 50 percent of its energy from renewables by 2030.

“[This] progress seems encouraging on several fronts. Today, India stands fourth globally in total renewable capacity, demonstrating a 400 percent growth over the last decade,” notes an article published by researchers of the Bharti Institute of Public Policy at the Indian School of Business.

But, despite this progress, the authors say that India faces a lot of challenges as it still remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels.

India’s Growth and Green Journey

With India’s economy expected to expand rapidly in the coming years, there will be an increase in demand for resources, and the environmental footprints will also increase. According to the latest World Energy Outlook report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), India’s energy consumption will increase by 30 percent by 2030 and 90 percent by 2050, with carbon emissions from energy use rising by 32 percent and 72 percent in the same period.

If successful in meeting its climate commitments over the next seven years, India could offer a developmental model wherein a country continues to grow and prosper without significantly increasing its energy or carbon footprint. But the path ahead for India’s energy transition is full of significant challenges.

“This is one of the most challenging times for India. We have the challenge of growth, jobs and energy consumption, which we have to balance with environmental considerations,” B V R Subrahmanyam, the CEO of NITI Ayog, India’s top official think tank, was quoted as saying by India’s national daily, The Times of India, on September 11, 2024.

But he has emphasized that fossil fuels will continue to drive the country’s growth. “It is no longer about growth or sustainability, but growth and sustainability,” he was quoted as saying.

Experts also believe that there are hurdles along the road as the country seeks to phase out polluting energy sources.

According to this article published in Outlook magazine on October 30, uncertainties such as low renewable energy (RE) investments in recent years, land availability, high intermittency of renewables, higher costs of panels due to import duties and distribution companies that are tied up in long-term power purchase agreement (PPA) not buying new RE power are some of the major concerns.

“While there has been progress on deployment of electric vehicles in the country, upfront costs and a lack of reliable charging infrastructure pose challenges in scaling up the initiatives… for the industrial sector, fossilized manufacturing capacities will create decarbonisation challenges,” the article says.

Raghav Pachouri, associate director, Low Carbon Pathways and Modelling, Vasudha Foundation, highlighted how storage can play an important role in making energy transition successful.

“The success of the energy transition to renewable energy lies with the integration of storage. Current capacities are limited, and the quantum of requirements is huge.”

Moreover, Pachouri says, infrastructure for electric vehicles remains inadequate, with fewer than 2,000 public charging stations as of 2023.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

Has the United Nations Outlived its Usefulness?

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Opinion

Credit: United Nations

 
The UN, which was established to foster global peace and stability, has now become a paralyzed institution that inadvertently contributes to raging conflicts because it is constrained by an archaic structure that no longer meets the dramatically changed world order.

NEW YORK, Nov 1 2024 (IPS) – The United Nations, established in 1945 at the end of World War II, has sadly virtually outlived its usefulness as it commemorated its 79th anniversary due to its failure to reform itself and adjust to the new world order following the collapse of the Soviet Union, which is significantly different from when the UN was established.

The UN’s mission, which is to promote peace and stability, has failed time and again, as many of the current violent conflicts, especially the Ukraine War and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, glaringly demonstrate.

As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy aptly put it when he asked during his address to the Security Council in 2022: “Where is the security that the Security Council needs to guarantee? … Where is the peace?”

Over the years, scholars and think tanks have offered reformist ideas to make the UN more adaptable and responsive to the changing world order. They have failed primarily because of how the UN was structured and the opposition of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) – the US, Russia, China, Britain, and France – to any significant reforms that could diminish their power.

Offering any comprehensive reforms to the UN is certainly beyond the scope of this column. However, there are some limited reforms that the UNSC can take, without a fundamental change in its structure, to enhance its effectiveness in maintaining global peace.

Before that, it is essential to point out some of the UN’s shortcomings to put into context the limited reforms that can be taken.

The UN Security Council’s structure
The UN Security Council’s structure, particularly the veto power held by its five permanent members, often leads to inaction. This power allows any one of these countries to block resolutions, even if there is broad international support. This has resulted in deadlocks on critical issues such as the Syrian Civil War, the Ukraine War, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The killings of civilians and the destruction of cities and towns, particularly by Israel and Russia, are devastating and continue unabated even through the UN and its humanitarian agencies. The International Criminal Court and UN human rights experts have repeatedly called on the Security Council to act. In these cases, the US and Russia’s adversarial relations prevented them from reaching solutions to mitigate these conflicts.

The composition of the Security Council does not reflect current global dynamics, leading to questions about its legitimacy and effectiveness. Calls for reform have been persistent but largely unaddressed due to the reluctance of current permanent members to alter a system that benefits them.

Only one-quarter of the global population is represented by the Security Council. Blocks of countries, including Muslim states, African nations, South American countries, and India, with over 1.3 billion people, are not represented in the SC.

Peacekeeping Constraints
The UN peacekeeping missions are often criticized for their limited mandates and resources. Peacekeepers are usually deployed in areas where there is no peace to keep, like Cyprus, Kosovo, and Western Sahara. They are generally not adequately equipped or have the authority to engage in violent operations.

This limitation is starkly evident in regions plagued by terrorism and violent extremism, including the Sahel region in Africa, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the Central African Republic, where peacekeepers struggle to stabilize situations without adequate support from powerful nations. In addition, there is often a disconnect between UN mandates and local realities, which complicates peacekeeping efforts.

Peacekeepers may not be adequately trained or prepared to handle complex regional dynamics, leading to ineffective interventions.

Lack of Enforcement Mechanisms
The UN often lacks effective enforcement mechanisms for its resolutions. While the Security Council can theoretically impose sanctions or authorize military action, veto power and political considerations frequently prevent decisive actions. This allows countries that are committing crimes against humanity or engaged in war crimes to escape any punitive measures with impunity, even when imposed by the UNSC.

National Interests Over Global Peace
The interests of powerful member states often precede collective global security objectives. The major arms-exporting nations are also permanent members of the Security Council, creating conflicts of interest that undermine efforts to resolve disputes where these nations have strategic interests.

This is highly evident in the Israel-Hamas war and Russia-Ukraine wars, where the US, in particular, is providing massive military support. In this context, geopolitical rivalries among major powers hinder consensus on critical issues. For example, China and Russia often align against Western countries on various international matters, leading to a stalemate in effectively addressing conflicts.

Bureaucratic Inefficiencies
Slow bureaucratic processes and mismanagement frequently hamper the UN’s operations. These inefficiencies can delay critical humanitarian aid and other interventions necessary for maintaining peace. Addressing these issues would require substantial reforms, particularly within the Security Council, alongside a commitment from member states to prioritize global peace over national interests.

Reforms that Can Enhance Effectiveness of UN Operations
Given, however, the insurmountable difficulties in undertaking comprehensive reforms of the UN, it is still possible to reform the UNSC to enhance its effectiveness in maintaining global peace, which involves addressing several key issues. Here are several doable reforms that could rectify some of the problems.

Reform proposals include limiting the use of vetoes, particularly in cases involving mass atrocities or violations of international law. This could include requiring a supermajority for vetoes to be effective or mandating discussions in the General Assembly following a veto.

Regional Representation
Ensuring geographic balance and representation of diverse cultures and civilizations is crucial. This could involve creating regional seats that rotate among countries within a region, thereby enhancing representation without significantly increasing the number of permanent seats.

Strengthening the Role of the General Assembly
Enhancing the General Assembly’s role in peace and security matters could counterbalance Security Council paralysis. Initiatives like the “Uniting for Peace” resolution allow the General Assembly to act when the Security Council is deadlocked. Given the differing national interests and geopolitical considerations, consensus-building can still be achieved without necessarily compromising national interests.

Non-amendment Reforms
Reinterpreting existing UN Charter provisions may allow for more flexible responses to global crises without formal amendments. Such reforms could empower other UN bodies to act when the Security Council cannot.

Balancing Power Dynamics
Expanding membership while managing veto power requires careful negotiation to ensure new members do not exacerbate gridlock. There is also concern about maintaining the council’s effectiveness with an increased number of members.

Expansion of Membership
Increasing permanent and non-permanent members is a widely discussed reform. This expansion could include adding new permanent members without veto power, such as countries from underrepresented regions like Africa, Latin America, and Asia. The G4 nations (Brazil, Germany, India, and Japan) and African countries have been prominent candidates for permanent seats.

Although there is broad agreement on the need to reform the UNSC, achieving that involves piloting multifaceted geopolitical landscapes and balancing various national interests. That said, incremental changes, especially those not requiring formal amendments to the UN charter, may offer a feasible path forward.

If the UNSC does not adopt some of these reforms, the UN will virtually outlive its usefulness, especially in the area of conflict resolution, where the daily horrific death and destruction around the world attests to its dismal failures.

Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a retired professor of international relations, most recently at the Center for Global Affairs at New York University (NYU). He taught courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies.

IPS UN Bureau

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